How are the hearings of the assault on the Capitol affecting the mid-term elections?

By Allan

PITTSBURGH — Hearings by the committee investigating the assault on Capitol Hill are making their way into some of this fall's most competitive congressional districts in key states, though the panel's work doesn't appear to be having much of an impact on how Voters see candidates for Congress and Governor.

One of the biggest questions surrounding the January 6 caucus is whether voters, especially in states like Pennsylvania and Arizona, have taken note of its conclusions.

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Of more than a dozen voters -- Republicans, Democrats and those who identify as independents -- interviewed in three hotly contested congressional districts in those two states, most indicated they were paying at least some attention to the commission.

Their conclusions differ, however, with some seeing the commission as reinforcing former President Donald Trump's culpability in the riots, while others see it as congressional overreach.

Joseph Ganter, 73, of Ross Township, Pennsylvania, has paid close attention to the commission, which is investigating the Jan. 6 riots at the Capitol and the former president's efforts to nullify the 2020 election, and to his recent hearings. .

Ganter says he voted for Trump in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020 and now says he will never vote for a president again, disappointed in both.

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"In my opinion, he started it," Ganter said of Trump, speaking to our sister network, NBC News, ahead of last Thursday's prime-time hearing, which he said he planned to watch.

He “got into his [Twitter] and messaged and let it hang for, what, 90 minutes or something?

And he let it go and it seemed very bad to me that he did nothing, ”he opined.

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Ganter, a longtime registered Democrat who now considers himself an independent, lives right in the heart of one of the most competitive House districts this fall, Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District.

He doesn't think the commission will lead the Justice Department "to do a damn thing" when it comes to potential fallout for Trump.

“Even though Trump was guilty of a lot of things, they're not going to catch him because they're afraid he's going to disrupt the country again.

So judge for yourself,” he stated.

Robert, 72, of North Hills, who asked that his last name not be used so he could share his opinion on sensitive political issues, told NBC News that he had watched the committee's first hearing, caught part of the second and followed closely. news coverage.

“I think people have really started to see how desperate Trump was to stay in office,” said Robert, a longtime Republican before voting for Biden in 2020. “And it seems like he would have gone to almost any length to remain in office and would have really tried to pull any strings I could.

He thought that maybe he was above the law.

Now things are turning against him,” he noted.

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The two men are the kind of voters who could largely decide some of this fall's most anticipated races, including senators and governors in Pennsylvania and Arizona.

And they are among the millions of Americans who have followed the investigation on January 6, Nielsen estimates that 17.7 million people watched Thursday's in prime time.

Each has had an average of 13.1 million viewers.

Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyoming, center, speaks during a committee hearing investigating the storming of the Capitol in Washington, DC, on Thursday, July 21, 2022.Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

But ratings didn't seem to be a big factor in how either man was targeting his vote this fall.

Both said they were leaning toward the state's attorney general, Democrat Josh Shapiro, in the ongoing Pennsylvania gubernatorial race against state Sen. Doug Mastriano, a Republican who was outside Capitol Hill on Jan. 6 and which has fueled electoral conspiracy theories.

In the Senate race, Robert said he was "very split" between Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz, while Ganter said Oz's limited history in the state was coloring his view of the race.

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The nonpartisan Cook Political Report calls the open seat in his home district, just outside Pittsburgh, a tie.

NBC News also visited Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District, around Scranton, where Cook is calling Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright's re-election a tie, and Arizona's 4th Congressional District, east of Phoenix, where Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton is running for re-election in a race the publication calls Democratic-leaning.

At a campaign rally in northwestern Pennsylvania last week, Shapiro spoke at length about Mastriano's presence outside the Capitol on Jan. 6, arguing that Mastriano is "incapable" of overseeing state police because of his actions that day.

"When the police looked at Mastriano and the others and told them to stop, he kept marching," Shapiro added. 

Shapiro said it was difficult to assess the impact of the Jan. 6 hearings on his career, although he would continue to push Mastriano's ties to Jan. 6 as part of his campaign.

[The Committee Investigating the Assault on Capitol Hill Analyzes Trump's 187 Minutes of Inaction]

“I think that disables him.

I stand on the side of law enforcement, respecting law enforcement.

He sided with the insurrectionary mafia,” he lamented.

Recent polling has revealed that the hearings may be making a difference in how some voters view the Jan. 6 attack, but, as in the case of Ganter and Robert, they don't make it a priority as a voting issue.

An NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll released ahead of the committee's prime-time hearing last week -- with a 4.4 percentage point margin of error -- found that 80% of Democrats, 55% of independents and 44% of Republicans pay at least some attention to the hearings.

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The hearings have coincided with a rise in independents now calling the riots “insurrection and a threat to democracy,” with 52% of independents now saying so, a 9 percentage point increase from December.

Republicans, however, have hardly changed their opinion on the attack, since only 12% describe it as an insurrection, compared to 10% in December.

And while 92% of Democrats and 57% of independents say Trump is "a lot" or "quite a bit" to blame for Jan. 6, only 18% of Republicans said the same.

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Still, only 9% of voters described the hearings as a priority voting issue as Republicans care more about inflation, Democrats care more about abortion rights after the Supreme Court overturned the case. Roe v.

Wade, and the independents care more about both of them.

Meanwhile, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released ahead of last week's hearing found that 40% of Republicans viewed Trump as at least partially responsible for Jan. 6, up 7 percentage points from their June poll.

Only 1 in 4 respondents said they had not followed the hearings at all.

The poll had a margin of error of about 4 percentage points.

In Arizona's 4th Congressional District, two voters who identify as independents told NBC News that they had at least followed Arizona House Speaker Rusty Bowers' testimony before the panel, praising him but adding that they were still undecided about how they would vote this fall.

Local Republicans, however, were more dismissive of the proceedings.

Peggy Marchi, 70, of Mesa, told NBC News that she and others she knows in the area did not prioritize the Jan. 6 hearings. 

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"I think they want things done at the border," he said.

“I think they want the economy, the gas prices.

They want all the same things.

And they are not interested in seeing what they put on television on January 6.

For me, it's a wasted effort and everyone I've talked to says it's a waste of time and money."

Carol Van Kley, an 81-year-old Republican from Mesa, said she didn't much care for the committee, but was sure others did.

"I'm sure there are a lot of people who pay a lot of attention to it," she said.

“The Democrats.

But I do not know.

I think people are very confused right now.”

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The most recent hearing featured the committee's investigation into the more than three hours between the time the riots began and when Trump posted a video on Twitter telling supporters to "go home."

The panel has tried to prove Trump's guilt in the attack by connecting his election lies to his call to action on Jan. 6, which many supporters heeded.

[Committee Investigating Capitol Raid Exposes How Trump Tried to Force State Officials to Reverse Election]

In her closing statement Thursday, Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyoming, the committee's vice chair, made a direct appeal to Republicans on why they should feel angry about Trump's conduct.

Nearly all of the witnesses who spoke during the committee hearings were also Republicans who at some point supported Trump: they worked in his White House, on his administration or on his campaign, or were elected state party leaders who faced pressure to overturn. elections before January 6.

"Donald Trump knows that millions of Americans who supported him would stand up and defend our nation if it were threatened," he said.

“They would put their lives and their freedom on the line to protect her.

And he's taking advantage of his patriotism, his sense of justice, and on January 6, Trump weaponized his love of country against our Capitol and against our Constitution," he added.

In an interview after the latest hearing, Russ Wend, a 64-year-old Republican from Luzerne County, in Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district, said everything he was hearing from the panel was the same thing over and over again.

"I don't think they're doing anything.

They just repeat the same thing,” she opined.

Another county Republican, Mark Laverdi, 55, felt that while there may have been some wrongdoing on Trump's part, the committee is going too far.

"I think they're going a little overboard," he said.

"He is out of the office.

You can't say, 'Leave the man alone,' but I think they're overdoing it.

Let a dead dog rest,” he opined.

Doug Pickens, a 68-year-old Democrat from Pittsburgh, said he has watched all the hearings and that his friends are paying close attention.

But he admitted that many Republicans are unlikely to be swayed by the proceedings.

"I hope there is that 15 or 20% of undecideds who see it with an open mind and then make a different decision," he said.