There is no doubt that Hezbollah is under pressure.
Nasrallah's interview this week made this clear.
Since the disaster in the port of Beirut in the summer of 2020, there has been a steady decline in the popularity of the terrorist organization in Lebanon.
In the elections he lost his political power and now Nasrallah is trying in every way to reacquire the status of the "protector of Lebanon" against Israel.
In doing so, he hopes to return to being the dominant political force in Lebanon.
And here, the maritime border conflict between Israel and Lebanon and the effort to extract gas from the reservoirs in Israel's general waters, are an opportunity in the eyes of Nasrallah to show muscles and win the unity of the Lebanese people again.
With the withdrawal of IDF forces from Lebanon in 2000, the land border line was marked by the two countries with the assistance of the United Nations, called the Blue Line.
The maritime boundary line was not agreed upon, and attempts to get agreed surveyors failed.
Immediately after the withdrawal, it was announced by Israel that the sea border is the continuation of the land border and it starts from the coastline at Rosh Hankara.
The angle of this line affects the location of the discovered gas fields, including the Harish field.
If the border line was at a more southerly angle, it is possible that part of Sde Harish would have gone north of the line and in Lebanese territory.
The marking of the border line is a professional event and is currently being discussed between the parties with the mediation of the US, and will probably be signed soon.
Shark rig.
Hezbollah threatens, photo: Reuters
Nasrallah referred to the negotiations that Hezbollah is not a party to and is trying to influence it by putting pressure on Israel.
The launch of the drones at the Shark rig was an attempt to send a signal that the organization considers the Shark rig a red line - and threatens to damage it, if the operations to extract gas from this field begin. However, Israel did not respond to the incident of the drones, and Nasrallah interpreted this as weakness.
In the interview, he sharpened his threats and issued an ultimatum to Israel, not to extract gas from Kharish until a settlement is reached on the maritime boundary line.
Basically he put a gun on the table.
On top of that, Nasrallah said that Lebanon must benefit from gas production in the offshore fields - otherwise it will damage all the gas fields in the area of the economic waters and not necessarily the shark.
The picture of the situation in his eyes is depicted as follows: he recognizes the American weakness in the region, he gains strength from the "zobor" that the Saudis gave to Biden at the cold reception at the summit in Jeddah and from the "meeting of the lepers" in Tehran by Putin, Erdogan and Raisi.
He also reads the political map in Israel and understands that Israel is currently in an election period with a transitional government, so he dares to threaten and issue an ultimatum.
Nasrallah's words should be taken very seriously in Israel.
There is no need to panic, but the relevant systems should be activated and be prepared for any scenario.
Israel must end the negotiations with Lebanon on the route of the maritime border and harness the US to help the country produce gas north of the border line in Lebanon's waters, where there are apparently additional fields.
Israel should continue the routine of producing gas from the fields in the economic waters despite the threats and be ready to destroy any threat at the hands of Hezbollah.
However, Nasrallah is mistaken in his interpretation of Israel's lack of response to the UAV incident. Israel must make it clear that any provocation will be met with a disproportionate response: by attacking targets in Lebanon for which the price will be very high.
The writer is a Major General and former Navy Commander
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