Nancy Pelosi's planned visit to Taiwan puts Joe Biden in distress - and China raging

Created: 07/27/2022, 16:25

By: Christiane Kühl, Sven Hauberg

Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, is said to be planning a trip to Taiwan soon.

© Saul Loeb/afp

In Beijing, people are arming themselves verbally, in Taipei they are practicing the real thing: an allegedly planned visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi has led to a crisis between China and the USA.

Munich/Beijing/Washington - Does it drive or does it not drive?

There has been speculation for days that Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi will travel to Taiwan.

It is not yet known whether the 82-year-old will actually get on the plane to Taipei;

but the rumors alone, based on a report by the

are causing a stir in Beijing and Washington that hasn't been seen in a long time.

Earlier this week, China's foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian threatened the US: "If the US side insists on this visit, China will take decisive and strong measures to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity." Zhao reiterated the threat on Wednesday.

The People's Republic regards Taiwan as a "breakaway province" and is threatening to conquer the democratically governed island.

Pelosi wanted to fly to Taipei in the spring, but a corona infection thwarted her plans at the time.

At that time, too, Beijing reacted with outrage: Pelosi's visit would "cross a red line," said Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

The US and most other countries in the world have no official relations with the Taiwanese government, but a number of parliamentary delegations from the US and the EU have recently visited Taiwan.

Last week, the Vice President of the European Parliament, Nicola Beer (FDP), met President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei, among others.

Beijing had also protested against Beer's visit, albeit surprisingly quietly.

The journey of such a high-ranking US politician as Pelosi, however, seems to go too far for China.

As Speaker of the House of Representatives, she is the third most senior politician in the United States after President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

So the case has what it takes to further escalate tensions between China and the United States.

Biden also seems to fear that.

"I don't think the military thinks it's a good idea at the moment, but I don't know how things stand," the 79-year-old told reporters last week about Pelosi's plans.

However, he can hardly forbid the visit.

On the one hand, there is a separation of powers in the USA – a president of an elected representative cannot dictate who they meet.

In addition, it would look bad on Biden, who is already ailing at home,

The history of the People's Republic of China from 1949 to the present

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China and USA: Mike Pompeo also wants to travel to Taiwan

The last time a speaker of the US House of Representatives visited Taipei was in 1997: Newt Gingrich, who is now a commentator for Fox News television.

Pelosi absolutely must travel to Taiwan, the 79-year-old demanded on Monday: "You must not allow the Chinese communist dictatorship to believe that you can intimidate an American speaker of the House of Representatives." The United States must now show strength.

Gingrich is a Republican and Pelosi is a Democrat.

On the question of Taiwan, however, the otherwise divided political camps in the USA have been united for years.

The non-partisan consensus includes, for example, supplying the government in Taipei with defensive weapons.

On Sunday, Pelosi received the offer of a male companion for her Taipei trip: Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State under ex-President Donald Trump, offered on Twitter to fly with him: "Nancy, I'm coming with you.

I am not allowed to travel to China, but to freedom-loving Taiwan.

See you there!” Pelosi herself has so far hardly commented on the fuss surrounding her trip and has not even officially confirmed it.

For good reason.

Apparently there are fears in the US government that Pelosi's plane could be shot down by China.

And Hu Xijin, one of Beijing's most vocal propagandists, blared on Twitter: "It is certain that the mainland's response to Pelosi's visit will be unprecedented and will entail a shocking military response."

How does China react to the Pelosi visit?

Expert: "enormously many means"

"Beijing has tremendous resources to pressure Pelosi to abandon her plan," Hong Kong

quoted politics professor Ni Lexiong of the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law this week as saying.

China's military could announce a no-fly zone over Taiwan or a restricted navigation zone for military exercises near the Taiwan Strait.

This would force Pelosi's plane to take a detour, according to Ni.

Biden administration officials privately voiced similar fears to the AP news agency

Ni also mentioned the possibility of an "attack on the Pratas Islands" in the South China Sea, controlled by Taipei.

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Intimidation measures such as the demonstrative intrusion of a particularly large number of Chinese fighter jets into Taiwan's flight security zone would also be conceivable, as could Pelosi's plane "accompanied" by Chinese aircraft.

The latter in particular harbors the risk of escalation.

Military might is always the final step, Ni told the

.

Beijing would prefer to use diplomatic means to get Pelosi to cancel the visit.

It remains unclear what that could be.

Pelosi's visit also contained explosives for China's head of state and party leader Xi Jinping.

Xi has intensified his rhetoric towards Taiwan in recent years.

"He can't go back," said international politics expert Alexander Görlach in a recent interview with

.

"Based on what Xi Jinping has said and announced, sooner or later he will have to do something that he can present as a solution to the Taiwan issue." the planned Pelosi visit Xi is now under pressure.

In the fall, he plans to be elected to an historic third term at the Communist Party's 20th Congress, reportedly accepting the newly created title of "Leader of the People."

So he can hardly show weakness in advance, especially since his strict zero-Covid course and a collapse in economic growth have already made him vulnerable.

China's Xi and US President Biden want to talk to each other

There could be a talk between Xi and Biden as early as this Thursday;

at least that's what US media are reporting, citing the White House.

Pelosi's travel plans should also be on the agenda.

Both heads of state are likely to be interested in defusing the crisis.

How they manage this diplomatic feat is of course still completely open.

After all, Wang Yang, number four in China's Politburo, has already verbally disarmed.

According to China's state-run Xinhua News Agency on Tuesday, Wang said the "reunification" with Taiwan must be peaceful.

"Both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to the same China and work together to achieve national reunification," Wang said.

In Taiwan, however, people don't rely on such promises - they prefer to train for emergencies.

Inspired by the resistance of the Ukrainians to the Russian aggressor, more and more people in Taiwan are volunteering for civil protection.

The annual "Han Kuang" maneuver, a large-scale military exercise, has also been running since the beginning of the week.

According to reports from the Taiwanese media, day one was about maintaining combat capability in the event of an attack by China.

The military exercise is taking place for the 38th time.

What is new this year is that reservists who have completed a new training program will also take part for the first time.

In addition, President Tsai Ing-wen boarded a destroyer "to see our Navy and Air Force in action," she tweeted: "Conducting a series of target drills gives me confidence in our military's ability and determination to react to every eventuality,” the president said ready to fight.

Better safe than sorry.