At first glance, there is nothing unusual in the story of Bair (pseudonym), until recently a mercenary fighter in the Russian army.
In January, his unit was sent from the mother base in the Republic of Buryatia within the Russian Federation to what was defined as "training" in Belarus, as has already happened in the past.
According to him, just a day or two before the invasion on February 24, he and his friends were told that there would also be entry into Ukraine, "but don't worry, the Ukrainians are waiting for us there and Zelensky will escape."
Indeed, for two days, Bair's armored column advanced without interruption.
However, with the first volley near Ivankiv in the Kyiv region, the image of the trip that the senior officers had promised was completely shattered.
"I realized that this is a real war, and the Ukrainians really don't expect us with open arms," says Bair in a conversation from Ulan-Ude, the capital of Buryatia, "I didn't want to be a part of it."
Have you decided to cancel the contract?
"It was not possible to do this in the combat zone, so I had to wait until they took our unit out of Ukraine to Belarus. There I already said that I was not ready to return and submitted an official request. About half of the other guys in the unit did the same as me, but they put pressure on us, they shamed us in front of All of them threatened criminal cases. Half broke. I insisted and at the beginning of April I was sent back to the unit's mother base in Ulan Ude."
Bair is just one of many hundreds of Russian soldiers who decided to refuse to fight in Ukraine, in a war that entered its sixth month this week, and whose end, according to various estimates, is not expected before the end of this year.
Most of the Russian refuseniks are motivated by a desire to survive, but according to Bair, for him the main motivations were the lack of justification for the war, and even more so - the hypocrisy of the Russian propaganda claim that it is necessary to "oust the Nazi regime in Kiev".
"It's so evil," laughs Bair, "it's a stupid Kremlin slogan. What is 'abolish Nazism in Ukraine'? We don't lack this stuff in Russia. I lived in Moscow for several years and I constantly encountered racism - from ads for renting an apartment to Slavs only, to grandmothers who looked at me and said 'Chorki (a derogatory term for immigrants from the Caucasus or Central Asia; DD) they are flooding us, we can't breathe'.
We have so many problems, so to bring us from a distance of 6,000 km to look for Nazis in a neighboring country?! They sent us to invade another country, like Germany in 1941 (which invaded the USSR).
That's why I resigned."
In his dry way, Bair demonstrates a huge problem in Russian society in general and the war effort in particular: an abysmal socio-economic inequality between Moscow (and some resource-rich districts) and the endless periphery.
This disparity became particularly tangible in the geography of the dead.
Journalists from the BBC and the independent website Mediazona were able to visually identify 4,760 Russian dead;
Only 324 of them came from districts where the median wage is higher than the all-Russian median.
In the Republic of Buryatia, Bair's home, whose residents number 0.68% of Russia's population, the number of dead stands at 217, which is 4.56% of the total number of casualties (and according to another calculation, at 287, which is 6.1%).
The Republic of Dagestan in the North Caucasus, whose population is 2.16% of all Russian residents, returned 236 coffins (4.98% of the dead).
The Republic of Tova, Buryatia's neighbor, has a total of 332,609 inhabitants (0.23% of Russia's population), but its share of the dead is 1.76% - almost eight times its share of the population.
On the other hand, in Moscow, of its 12.6 million inhabitants (8% of the population), there are only 11 (!) deaths (0.23% of the total casualties).
And while in the peripheral districts the war is felt almost every day - either because of the frequent funerals or because of campaigns to encourage conscription, in Moscow none of this happens and life actually goes on as usual.
On the one hand, this statistic should come as no surprise.
The periphery simply contributes more soldiers because service in the army is more or less the only ladder to social mobility.
Thus, for example, the salary in the army may be twice as high as the median salary in the district.
Therefore, it is also conceivable that most of the resignations from the army will come from the periphery.
150 soldiers returned to Buryatia alone after canceling a contract.
At the same time, the story behind the periphery, certainly the ethnic one, is more complex, and is connected to one of the Kremlin narratives, which is designed to justify the aggressive policy towards Ukraine.
The reference is to the "Russian world" - a concept of political-cultural imperialism, in which the Russians have a special role in history, and Moscow should gather the Slavic peoples under its wing.
In this view, which in its various incarnations dates back to the 15th century, the Russians are "elder brothers" with hidden "privileges", which, however, in times of crisis turn into overt chauvinism and racism.
Now, with almost daily funerals and the futility of the war, questions multiply around her, away from the good life in the capital.
Are there no heroes in Moscow?
"The minorities have begun to dissociate themselves from this war," Alexandra Garmzhpova, president of the "Free Buryatia Foundation," tells Israel this week.
Garmjapova, a former journalist who now lives in Prague, founded the fund almost by accident: first she and her friends uploaded a video of their people protesting against the war.
They also wanted to be satisfied with the video, but it gained momentum and it became clear that, contrary to the overwhelming support, there are quite a few people in their homeland who feel exploited.
"These are completely ordinary people, who say that such a thing cannot happen, that it is not fair. They begin to ask why Moscow does not fight? Why do we have ads in Ulan-Ude saying 'heroes are needed for the army' and in Moscow there are none? Does Moscow not want to provide heroes? Then the governor came Tsidanov said that Buryatia would help the Donbass to recover - and caused an uproar. People wrote on the networks: What, all our problems are over? Everything is so great?".
But perhaps the most important agitating factor is the doubts about the purpose of the war, doubts that only increase when today there is hardly a single Buryat who does not know a bereaved family.
"People want to understand what the boys are dying for? Ukraine is fighting for its independence and defending itself. What about Russia? De-Nazification of Ukraine? But in the ears of ethnic minorities in Russia, this argument is a shot in the foot, given the chauvinism and xenophobia here. Not to mention neo- Russian Nazis are known in the ranks of the Russian army."
One of the lowest points in relation to the Buryats was recorded already in the first month of the war.
When the atrocities perpetrated by the Russian army in Bocha and other cities in the Kyiv region were revealed, official Russia disowned the actions and claimed that they were lies spread by Ukraine.
But internally, another message was broadcast. According to Garmzhpova, "on the Telegram channels, which are linked to the Kremlin, a different version is spreading: yes, there was something in Bucha, but it was not ethnic Russians who did it to their Slavic brothers, but human savages from the periphery. And so the Buryats were also sent first to the furnace, and when things went wrong, they also became the scapegoat."
By the way, the foundation claims that no Buryat names were found among the suspects in the Boche crimes.
Meanwhile, Buriat agitation and anti-war activity spread to other "ethnic areas".
In the Republic of Tova, there is a "New Tova" movement, which helps mercenary fighters cancel contracts.
"We have funerals on a daily basis," the leaders of the movement write on their Instagram account, "Our youth should not die because of the imperial ambitions of one person. We are a small nation, and every death is a heavy loss. Every person is important to us, but our sons are taken and thrown away To hell as cannon fodder."
Also in the Republic of Bashkortostan (where at least 144 deaths have been identified) a movement has been established that advises canceling contracts.
There is also an initial super-organization, called "The Asians of Russia", whose, according to its leaders, its first goal is to "stop the war, into which all the nations have been dragged."
The Russian Federation is trembling
Meanwhile, the anti-war minorities' agenda echoes a more fundamental issue, which concerns the essence of the Russian Federation and its future: is it a federation at all, that is, a free union of political entities that reserves the right to withdraw?
Can Russia remain intact?
does she need
This discourse has different shades.
A little over a week ago, some representatives of minorities in the Russian Federation demonstrated in front of the White House and called "to act for the decolonization of Russia".
They belonged to a new organization, called the "League of Free Nations" and its goal was "the liberation of the Russian minorities from slavery."
Two articles recently appeared in the US - one in "Atlantic" magazine under the title Decolonize Russia, and the other in "National Interest", under the title "It's time to prepare for the disintegration of Russia".
Such voices are also heard in the Russian elite.
One of the most prominent of them is Prof. Alexander Atkind, historian and cultural researcher.
In an enlightening article for the newspaper "The Moscow Times", Atkind wrote: "What happened to the Russian Empire? It fell apart at the end of an imperial war. What happened to the USSR?
Disintegrated at the end of the Cold War.
What will happen to the Russian Federation?
The answer is self-evident, even if it saddens many... the collapse has long been feared and predicted for a long time.
It was rejected thanks to favorable economic conditions, by relying on efficient government, talented diplomatic play or just plain luck.
The ruling party chose a name that reflected the deep fear of disintegration, as well as the lack of other values: 'United Russia'."
Atkind, who authored the groundbreaking book "Internal Colonization" (in which he described how the Principality of Moscow and then the Russian Empire spread while exploiting populations and natural resources; D.B.), adds: "I am not calling for the collapse of the Russian Federation - I am predicting it.
The disintegration would have been avoided if not for the war with Ukraine... The collapse of the federation - a complex, artificial, highly unequal and increasingly unproductive community - will occur because of its leaders in Moscow, and only because of them."
What are the chances that Russia will indeed break up as a result of the war?
Abbas Galimov, formerly deputy governor for internal affairs of the Republic of Bashkortostan and Putin's speechwriter, offers a different perspective.
"Close to the breakup of the Soviet Union and after it, ethnic nationalism flourished and there was hope for an improvement in the standard of living," says Galiamov, who today lives in Israel (his wife is Jewish), "but the separatist trends exhausted themselves as far as the voters were concerned in the 1990s, a quarter of a century has passed and now there is disappointment with over-centralization The Putinist.
In the 1990s, the country had to be gathered, the lack of governance was at its peak and it was necessary to centralize, but Putin had to stop in time.
Instead, he threw the baby out with the bathwater."
Do you think there is a chance of a protest?
"There is a growth of an anti-Moscow atmosphere even in the Russian regions (that is, the non-ethnic regions; Db).
There is potential, but we don't see the protest because of the oppressive regime.
The most daring were put in prison, the rest are afraid.
Putin is very afraid of separatism, and the PSB (Russian Shin Bet) is very intent on dealing with it.
The war certainly reinforced the perception that the Russians are an imperial people trying to rule.
And if that's not enough, the Kremlin also makes mistakes - so, for example, Kirinko (Sergei Kirinko, the first deputy head of the presidential administration; DB) convinced Putin that the teaching of ethnic languages in the republics should not be mandatory. It's as if they told the Bashkirs, Tatars and others: the language Yours is not equal to the Russian. Such things are not quickly forgotten, and the war convinces that we need to stay away from the Russians."
"There is a danger in disintegration."
Gramzhapova, photo: courtesy of the photographer
Can all this become a "spring of peoples" inside Russia?
"I don't think there will be a disintegration like in the USSR.
There will be a great decentralization, they will announce the priority of the local constitution, the payment of local taxes.
Perhaps only in the Caucasus can conditions for secession be created, say in Chechnya, because of Islam, the border with another country, and the tradition that glorifies power.
Unlike the Soviet constitution, in the Russian one there is no possibility of secession, and most nations do not have sovereign experience like the Baltic republics had.
For the Bashkirs, who have lived for 500 years inside Russia, it is difficult to formulate a national idea.
Then there will be a de jure federal state, which will look like a collection of independent territories."
Alexandra Garmzhpova, for her part, believes that the disintegration of Russia is not only undesirable but also impossible and dangerous.
"If Russia loses its integrity, it's not like everyone will wake up the next morning in Switzerland. It's not clear how the economy, institutions, politics will be rebuilt."
According to Garmzhpova, the drawing of the Soviet maps will also give its signals: the USSR did everything to thwart any possibility of national growth by redrawing borders and moving populations. Even in its homeland today there are only 30% ethnic Buryats instead of the 90% that existed until 1937, and the reason is Systematic tearing of parts from the Autonomous Republic of Buryat-Mongolia that joined the USSR in 1923 and transferring them to other provinces.
The Soviets also did similar exercises in the North Caucasus.
"The disintegration, if it happens, will cause countless local conflicts," warns Garmzhepova, but according to her the key lies elsewhere.
"No one has yet tried to change the imperial consciousness of the Russians themselves. Even the Russian liberal elite until recently was mostly imperial without realizing it. They did not notice that apartments in Moscow and St. Petersburg were rented only to Slavs, for them everything was fine. And here we tell them that it is not OK. The Russian opposition at the federal level is turning to us because now there is also an understanding among them that without true federalization, there simply will be no Russia. Imperial-minded Russians must understand that they are equal to others, no better than Buryats, Tatars, Kalmyks or Ukrainians. They are just like everyone else. And We'll have to work on that."
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