Brittney Griner case: Joe Biden's solution 1:08
(CNN) --
Is the United States really willing to let the "Merchant of Death" out of prison?
Viktor Bout, one of the world's most notorious arms dealers, could be the key to a potential deal with Moscow to win the freedom of basketball star Brittney Griner and another American, Paul Whelan, according to an exclusive CNN report.
A "substantial offer" was made to Moscow in June, according to three sources, and was personally signed by President Joe Biden.
To put it mildly, this is an impressive development.
The Kremlin has not yet responded.
But if the exchange goes ahead, it could transform perceptions of how the US deals with governments that detain its citizens abroad, making American travelers more tempting targets.
Likewise, it would be an act of great humanity for Biden to bring Americans home from hellish Russian prisons.
Brittney Griner pleads guilty in Russia, said she had no criminal intent
This is one of those no-right-answer problems leaders face.
Freeing a prisoner like Bout is a risk.
Not only is he close to Russian intelligence, but he could pose a future threat: He was convicted in 2011 of conspiracy to kill Americans, among other charges.
A high-profile trade like this could also send a message to hostile governments and crooks around the world that the US will be open to making deals to bring its people home.
Then there is the awkward symbolism of equating these cases through an exchange.
Griner, the WNBA star on trial in Moscow, says she unintentionally brought cannabis into Russia.
Whelan was arrested in 2018 and charged with espionage.
Washington maintains that neither case has any merit and is highly critical of what it sees as a politicized Russian justice system.
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Bout, by contrast, is a notorious international criminal, though he maintains his innocence.
Which helps explain why the Justice Department opposed the trade, according to the report by CNN's Kylie Atwood, Evan Perez and Jennifer Hansler.
It's hard not to see this as a potential big win for Russia and President Vladimir Putin.
A swap could provide days of propaganda fuel for the Kremlin.
Perhaps Bout could also be useful in procuring weapons for Russia to use in Ukraine.
Whatever the outcome, it's clear that Moscow already viewed Griner and Whelan as bargaining chips even before any US swap proposals. Trevor Reed, another American who was freed in a War-style prisoner swap. Cold in April, he told CNN's Jake Tapper on Wednesday that fears such deals could encourage Moscow to round up more Americans were overblown.
"They're going to do it anyway," Reed said.
Biden must weigh the human consequences against the geopolitical costs.
Does it really make sense for Bout to stay in an American cell if he can be used to bring two Americans home?
Whatever the larger consequences, the families of Whelan and Griner would agree to the deal in a heartbeat.
And Biden has faced extreme domestic political pressure from Griner's family, friends and colleagues especially.
A cynic might argue that his faltering presidency could use the kind of political victory that could bring the return of Americans imprisoned abroad.
But what American wouldn't expect Biden to do the same for them?
Preet Bharara, a former US attorney for the Southern District of New York who oversaw Bout's prosecution, said she understood Biden's dilemma.
"There's a very difficult balance here between not wanting to set a precedent for lopsided exchanges of people who haven't actually done anything very criminal in Russia for someone who has done something very significant criminal in the United States," Bharara told CNN.
Both of Biden's immediate predecessors made deals with American enemies like the Taliban and Iran to bring Americans home.
But this case is especially treacherous given the high profile of those involved.
The hardest problems end up on presidents' desks because no one else found a way to solve them.
Brittney Griner