Ice weather in the gas crisis?
That predicts the seasonal trend for the winter
Created: 07/28/2022, 14:48
By: Franziska Vystrcil
In recent years, winters in Germany have tended to be mild rather than cold.
That would play into the hands of many consumers this year in view of the major gas crisis.
Stuttgart - At the moment we only think of ice, snow and cold when we long for a cool down in the current heat.
With the weather in Germany, winter still seems far away.
Nevertheless, everyone is talking about the cold season due to the gas and energy crisis.
Many are already worried whether the radiators will stay cold at the end of the year.
What would be more welcome than a mild winter?
The first weather models have already published seasonal trends.
According to BW24
, Dominik Jung, graduate meteorologist at
wetter.net
, gives
an outlook on what we could be facing according to the calculations in winter 2022/2023.
The first trends indicate how warm or cold the winter of 2022/2023 will be
"Are we going to get a snowy ice winter in the middle of the crisis or are we lucky and it's going to be a mild winter?" Dominik Jung asks himself in his latest weather video.
Mild temperatures would bring relief to many people in Germany given the possible lack of gas supplies.
If you want to be on the safe side: Clever savings tricks for electricity, gas and oil can be found
on the consumer page of
BW24 .
In his video, the meteorologist takes a closer look at the seasonal trends of the various weather models.
Dominik Jung emphasizes in advance: "This is not a classic weather forecast, these are climatological trends." The Climate Forecast System (CFS) calculates the weather for the next nine months every six hours.
For Christmas Eve, NOAA's run calculated freezing cold.
Extreme temperatures are said to prevail from north-eastern Europe down to Spain.
According to Dominik Jung, however, this calculation "cannot be taken at face value".
The average values of the calculations are far more accurate.
These show what could be in store for us from October climatologically.
In general, it can be said that winters have become increasingly warmer in recent decades.
In view of the increasingly frequent heat waves, experts warn that we are “much too slow” when it comes to climate protection.
The seasonal forecasts already mentioned can also be used to determine trends for the coming winter.
However, weather forecasts for individual days are not possible.
"We can only try to estimate whole months," explains Dominik Jung.
Models calculate temperatures in the coming winter: these are seasonal trends
The seasonal trends are so-called climate projections, which provide a trend as to whether the months are warmer or colder than the long-term climate mean.
"Accordingly, it's just a rough estimate."
What are seasonal trends?
Not a classic weather forecast
climate projections
provides rough estimates
makes statements about whether it will be warmer or colder than the long-term climate mean
also read
"Collected my monthly salary": Kaufland customer proudly shows his deposit receipt
Airbus aborts takeoff at high speed
(Source: wetter.net)
In October, the temperatures usually drop again, it often has to be heated.
The American weather service NOAA has calculated the temperature deviations for October 2022 with its CFS model.
With regard to the climate mean for the years 1991 to 2020, October is expected to be too mild.
The month could be 0.5 to 1 degree above the climate mean.
"At least a little bit more, if not really much," says Dominik Jung, assessing the trend.
It looks relatively similar for November 2022.
"Not too cold there either - but not too hot either," says the meteorologist.
In large parts of Europe and also in Germany, November could be 0.5 to a maximum of 1 degree too warm, in southern Germany, including in Baden-Württemberg, average temperatures could also be 1 to 2 degrees too high.
According to Dominik Jung, it will be exciting in the first meteorological winter month, December 2022. This month could also be slightly too warm.
According to the CFS model, the values in December are a maximum of 0.5 to 1 degree above the long-term climate mean.
"That's really negligible," says the weather expert.
Winter 2022/2023: American and European models disagree on course
January 2023 gives more hope for mild temperatures.
According to the Americans, the month will be 1 to 2 degrees too warm.
According to Dominik Jung, the winter trend from December to February also shows “there are definitely chances of a mild winter”.
Especially in the middle of the state and in southern Germany, the entire meteorological winter could be 1 to 2 degrees too warm.
"After all: No ice winter, which is what the NOAA calculates." After the extreme summer that is currently prevailing, an icy cold is also hardly imaginable.
The most popular holiday destinations for Germans are currently experiencing the most extreme weather in 1,200 years.
Do we have to be prepared for a lot of snow and cold this winter?
Seasonal trends give initial ratings for 2022/2023.
© Franz Neumayr/dpa
However, the European weather model ECMWF does not agree with these forecasts.
For October 2022, the model assumes temperatures will be just 0.5 to 1 degree too high.
In November, the temperature deviation in the ECMWF model is also 0.5 to 1 degree above the climate mean.
"So only moderately warmer than normal," explains Dominik Jung.
Unlike NOAA, the Europeans are not expecting a mild December.
"But on the contrary.
There should be no more than normal temperatures,” the meteorologist continues.
"That would be cooler than last December 2021. So much more heating would have to be done than last December." According to the ECMWF, the trend for January is anything but mild.
In most parts of the country, January 2023 should be normal, only in western Germany could the values be 0.5 to 1 degree higher than usual.
"An extreme mild winter is not in sight for Germany," says Dominik Jung, summarizing the seasonal trends.
"There's probably not that much to save on heating costs.
We will probably have to heat significantly more than in the previous winter of 2021/2022.”
