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Taipei, Taiwan (CNN) --
Reports that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is planning a visit to Taiwan have sparked tense exchanges between the US and China, and growing speculation about how Beijing could react.
While Pelosi — an outspoken critic of Beijing — has so far refused to confirm the reports, she has said it is important for the United States to show support for Taiwan, and lawmakers on both sides of the political divide in Washington have urged her to to go.
China, meanwhile, has lashed out at the idea, vowing to take "firm and forceful action" if any trip takes place.
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Far less vocal, however, has the island been at the center of controversy.
There has been no statement for or against Pelosi's possible trip from Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen or her office, though Prime Minister Su Tseng-chang said Wednesday that Taipei was "very grateful." House Speaker Pelosi for her strong support and kindness to Taiwan over the years" and that the island welcomes any friendly guests from abroad.
Analysts say the relative silence is because Taiwan, an autonomous democratic island of 24 million people that China's ruling Communist Party claims as part of its territory, even though it has never controlled it, is in a difficult situation. uncomfortable.
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Taiwan, they point out, relies on US weapons to defend itself against the possibility that China might invade and seize it by force, so they don't want it to be seen as discouraging support from one of the world's most powerful politicians. from United States.
However, if Taiwan seems too excited about the prospect of a visit from Pelosi, experts say, it risks fueling Beijing's ire.
On Thursday, Taiwan's foreign ministry said it "had not received any definitive information on Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan" and had "no further comment on this matter."
A person familiar with Pelosi's plans said she planned to leave Friday US time for a tour of Asia, and that the trip would include stops in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore, but no word yet. if it will stop in Taiwan.
'Background noise'
Political analysts said part of the reason Taiwanese authorities are keeping a low profile is because doing so could help deflect any blame if such a trip goes ahead: Beijing would then be more likely to blame Washington, rather than China. Taipei, they say.
"It is in the Taiwanese government's interest to remain discreet and avoid giving the impression that Taiwan is actively encouraging Pelosi's visit," said Wen-ti Sung, a political scientist with the Taiwan Studies Program at the Australian National University.
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“If Taiwan remains silent and Pelosi comes, it will probably be interpreted as a decision made by the United States or by Pelosi,” he said.
"But if Taiwan openly asks him to visit, Beijing could frame it as a Taiwan plot. Countries in the region -- such as Japan, South Korea or even Australia -- could also become less sympathetic to Taiwan if they feel Taiwan is actively creating a problem out of the blue."
However, that may be only part of the reason for Taipei's relative silence.
While the international media has covered Pelosi's possible visit extensively, it has barely made headlines in Taiwan this week.
Instead, Taiwanese news has largely focused on the scandals surrounding upcoming local elections and the island's largest annual military exercises.
Wang Ting-yu, a Taiwanese parliamentarian from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, said this was in part because the Taiwanese public had grown accustomed to threats from Beijing, which has had its eyes on the island since the end of the war. Chinese civilian more than seven decades ago.
Brian Hioe, a Taiwanese-American living in Taiwan.
Brian Hioe, a Taiwanese-American who lives in Taipei and founded New Bloom magazine, which covers Taiwan politics, said Taiwanese are generally not overly concerned about the possible fallout from Pelosi's visit, as Beijing has made threats. similar in the past.
"Threats from China happen so frequently that it's kind of like background noise," he said.
"So people here don't really think that seriously about the possibility of repercussions from a visit by Pelosi."
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At the same time, analysts caution against interpreting Taiwan's lack of official reaction as meaning that it is unaware of the potential dangers should Pelosi pay a visit.
And as publicity about his possible trip grows, each side will feel they must stick to their positions to avoid looking weak, commentators said.
The matter was discussed at length in a phone call Thursday between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who warned that "those who play with fire will die," according to a statement provided by the Foreign Ministry. Chinese Foreign.
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Analysts said that if Pelosi does not come, the United States risks appearing spooked by China's possible response.
Meanwhile, mounting speculation about what China might do to retaliate could drive Beijing into a corner where it felt it had to do something to avoid losing face if a visit were made.
"Right now, because there have already been so many comments and discussions about how China might react, I think China is bound to react right now," Hioe said.
"So I think there will be some kind of reaction from China, and they will try to make it seem much more significant."
Despite such concerns, MP Wang said that Taiwan "is not anyone's pawn" and that China should not be able to dictate who visits the island.
"There is no room for China to interfere in diplomatic interactions between Taiwan and the United States," said Wang, a member of the parliament's Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee.
Wang Ting-yu, Taiwanese MP from the Democratic Progressive Party.
“We welcome all our friends from the United States and around the world.
So whether or not Pelosi comes, we respect his decision.
However, don't let China interfere."
Su Tzu-yun, director of Taiwan's National Defense and Security Research Institute, said the island "welcomes any friends from other countries, and we appreciate any support from the international community."
He said that if the situation escalated, it would be Beijing's responsibility.
“Taiwan will never become the so-called opportunist (in the US).
We will show our willingness to defend ourselves,” he said.
Additional reporting by Walid Berrazeg in Taipei.
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