Farewell to Putin: military expert believes in defeat - one historian goes even further
Created: 07/31/2022 04:53
By: Felix Durach
Can Ukraine win the war against Russia after all?
Two experts no longer rule out a defeat for Putin.
Moscow – More than five months ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a war of aggression against Ukraine.
The autocrat's declared goal: the recognition of the self-proclaimed People's Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent, as well as the denazification and demilitarization of the entire country.
But the situation in the Ukraine war has changed since the first days of the war.
Two experts even see President Putin under a lot of pressure in the current situation.
Ukraine War: Putin's troops suffer high casualties in eastern Ukraine
Because the Russian troops are making slow progress in the Donbass and southern Ukraine.
After months of bitter fighting, the armed forces finally managed to drive the Ukrainian defenders out of the Luhansk region.
However, the battles for the cities of Sievjerodonetsk and Lyssychansk dragged on and caused heavy losses among the Russian troops.
The Russian advance on the Donetsk region will therefore proceed much more slowly.
At least that's what military expert Ed Arnold from the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) predicts.
“They are getting exhausted in terms of their offensive power.
They paid a very high price for the control of Luhansk," Arnold told
about the situation of the Russian army.
Over the past few weeks, Kyiv has defended every inch of its territory, causing heavy casualties in the ranks of the Russian army.
Has the character of war changed?
Russia's President Vladimir Putin could face uncomfortable times.
© Mikhail Klimentyev/dpa
Russian advance comes to a standstill - Ukraine benefits from arms deliveries
At the same time, the Ukrainian military has significantly better weapon systems than at the beginning of the war.
A few weeks ago, the United States brought a Himars-type multiple missile server system to Ukraine.
At the beginning of the week, the federal government delivered a similar system to the war zone with Mars II.
As a result, Ukrainian forces can now attack Russian targets from a long distance.
The focus here is on ammunition depots or command centers.
Germany has delivered three Mars II multiple rocket launcher systems to Ukraine.
© Sebastian Gollnow
Ukrainian counter-offensive: Military experts expect Cherson to be captured by September
“This will affect Russia's capabilities.
Both in offensive operations and in defense,” concludes Arnold.
At the same time, the Ukrainian army launched a counter-offensive in the south of the country.
The armed forces of Ukraine can already record their first territorial gains there and advance towards the city of Cherson.
In the long term, Kyiv wants to regain control of the strategically important Odessa-Mykolaiv-Kherson-Melitopol axis.
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Military expert Arnold thinks it is likely that Ukrainian forces could have recaptured Kherson by September.
The loss of the strategically important port city would be a severe, symbolic defeat for Putin's regime.
The renowned historian and Yale professor Timothy Snyder has once again dealt with the current status of the Ukraine war in his blog "Thinking about".
In doing so, he came to an unpleasant result for Putin.
Putin has only one way to win the war: by convincing the West that Ukraine cannot win the war and supporting Kyiv as a result.
Western arms deliveries are having an effect - war is changing its character
That being said, Snyder currently sees Ukraine in a position to win the war.
The historian, too, believes that Kyiv has an advantage thanks to the delivery of western multiple rocket launchers.
"Russian warfare is based on artillery, on long-range killing," Snyder analyzes in his blog post.
This advantage also led to territorial gains in the first months of the war.
"But when the Russian advantage in artillery disappears, the character of the war changes," the historian said.
This process can currently be observed.
In addition, the Russian army hardly used its advantages in the first months of the war.
In the south-east of Ukraine in particular, Russia was unable to demonstrate its military superiority.
The terrain there was ideal for a rapid advance of the armed forces.
However, only slow territorial gains were achieved, which a Ukrainian counter-offensive could now contest again.
Ukraine War: Putin Launched Invasion With False Assumptions
A key point for Snyder is that Putin launched the invasion under false assumptions.
The Russian President had assumed that the Ukrainian people would welcome and accept without resistance the dismantling of their government by the "Russian brothers".
"The Ukrainian nation and state have been transformed by this war, but not in a way that benefits Russia," writes Snyder.
Russia is currently trying to destroy the Ukrainian economy, terrorize the population with rocket attacks and put pressure on Europe and Africa by stopping exports of grain and gas.
According to the historian, the Ukrainian soldiers are fighting for more compelling reasons: to secure their country's existence and to retake the lost territories.
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Historian on the Ukraine War - West has a simple task
Should the Ukrainian counter-offensive lead to the recovery of territories, this could destroy the image of invincible Russia.
Then things could also get tight for Putin.
"The war will end only when Putin realizes that his personal position is under threat," Snyder concludes.
Until then, the West has a simple task.
"All we have to do is see things as they are, be patient and support the democracy that is under attack - with the right attitude and the right weapons," Snyder concluded.
During his "summer tour" Robert Habeck felt that this orientation would lead to an energy crisis and social unrest.