China: Authorities expect the population to shrink by 2025

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An elderly woman with a toddler in Shanghai, China

Photo: ALEX PLAVEVSKI / EPA

"Our childbirth promotion policy is flawed": China's National Health Commission has criticized the country's demographic policy and warned of a shrinking population.

The rate of population growth has slowed significantly, the agency said.

She therefore assumes that the population will decrease in the five-year plan running from 2021 to 2025.

The reason is both a low birth rate and a growing proportion of older people in the overall population.

The fertility rate has fallen below 1.3 in recent years.

Around the year 2035, more than 30 percent of the population in China will be older than 60 years.

In 2021, the birth rate hit a low, according to official figures, 10.62 million children were born last year - the lowest level since at least 1978.

China had relaxed its birth control policy in recent years and ended the “one child policy”.

Couples have been allowed to have two children since 2016, and three children since last year.

Despite these decisions, there was no birth boom.

Rising living costs make family planning unattractive

Couples are struggling with the rising cost of living, housing costs and most importantly the cost of raising children.

However, experts also suspect a cultural change in the population – people would have gotten used to smaller families.

To counteract this, the Health Commission recommends reducing the financial pressure on couples through measures in the areas of housing, education and taxes.

The city of Hangzhou in the east of the country announced on Monday that it wants to offer families with three children loans with larger amounts for the purchase of a first apartment.

Other cities such as Nanchang and Changsha have also taken supportive measures, according to state media.

According to estimates by the United Nations, eight billion people will live in the world in November 2022.

India could overtake China as the most populous country as early as next year.

According to data from 2020, 1.412 billion people lived in China, and according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, there are currently around 1.4 billion in India.

fek/AFP