Russian troops prepare offensive - but there are two problems

Created: 2022-08-02 09:16

By: Tobias Utz

War researchers are certain: Russia's efforts to conquer the Kharkiv region are doomed to failure.

Kharkiv/Moscow – If the war researchers at the “Institute for the Study of War” have their way, the Russian army is currently preparing its next offensive attempt in Ukraine.

Experts, who are often quoted in the Ukraine war, predict that Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared the capture of the city of Kharkiv and the surrounding oblast in the north-east of the country as an interim goal.

The assessment is based on troop movements around the city of Izyum, south-east of Kharkiv.

"Russian forces have resumed localized ground attacks northwest and southwest of Izyum and may be creating the conditions for offensive operations further west in Kharkiv Oblast or towards the city of Kharkiv," the research institute's situation report said.

The ground attacks mentioned were preceded by numerous reconnaissance missions by Russian soldiers in the region.

News about the Ukraine war: Russia's offensive apparently hopeless

The researchers believe that taking over the city of Kharkiv and the surrounding region of the same name is one of Putin's utopian goals.

With around 1.5 million inhabitants, Kharkiv is the second most populous city after the capital Kyiv.

Around 2.6 million people live in the entire Kharkiv Oblast (approx. 31,400 square kilometers in area).

However, it is not only the size of the city and the surrounding area that are unfavorable factors for a military offensive by the Russian troops, which have suffered heavy losses, according to the analysis.

"The pace of Russian progress in Donbass and the ongoing problems with troop build-up and logistics" are other factors for the experts.

A map of Ukraine in the national colors.

(symbol photo) © ingimage / Imago Images

However, part of the expert assessment is also the possibility that the reconnaissance missions at Izyum could be diversionary maneuvers by the Russian armed forces.

In this way, any Ukrainian counter-offensive attempts could be prevented.

However, this cannot be definitively verified.

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Regardless of possible ground offensives in the Kharkiv region, Russia has been attacking from the air for some time.

The reports of missile attacks are piling up.

"Civilian buildings", as they are called in military jargon, are being hit more and more frequently.

Many civilians lose their homes – or their lives – in this way.

News on the Ukraine war: "Outright lie" by the Russian government

Since the beginning of the invasion at the end of February, Moscow has repeatedly said that Russian troops would not attack any civilian infrastructure.

President Vladimir Putin in particular likes to position himself in this way.

Wolfgang Benedek, head of the OSCE expert commission on violations of international humanitarian law and human rights on the territory of Ukraine, recently described this as a "blatant lie".

"We see a clear pattern of violations of international humanitarian law here, which is actually supposed to protect civilians," Benedek told

.

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The United Nations now expect thousands of civilian casualties in the Ukraine war, including in the Kharkiv region.

Apart from documented cases, the number of unreported cases is probably very high, the UN said several times.

The research

summarizes the attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine since the beginning of the war on a map.

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