Who will break the defense between China and the United States, who will be the "mouth gun" and who will be the "warrior", depends on the next 24 hours!
Although there is no Taiwan on Pelosi's official itinerary, with the announcement of Pelosi's Asian itinerary details, starting from the early morning of August 1, Taiwanese media have wildly rumored that she will make a transit visit to Taiwan on the evening of August 2 or 3. At that time, Tsai Ing-wen will meet with her, and the reception work of relevant units in Taiwan is also "in preparation", and even Pelosi's accommodation hotel has been ordered.
CNN and other American media have also made similar reports.
Judging from the news, it is very likely that Pelosi will go his own way and insist on visiting Taiwan regardless of the serious threat to China-US relations and regional stability, and regardless of China's solemn statements and warnings.
If such a thing does happen, its consequences would be catastrophic.
This "catastrophic" includes the following meanings:
First, for Sino-US relations, it would be disastrous.
Taiwan is the most sensitive part of China-US relations and the foundation of China-US relations. What does foundation mean?
That is to say, the entire Sino-US relationship is built on the basis of Taiwan.
Looking back at the history of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States and their discussions on bilateral relations, no matter how big the gap between the two sides in terms of cognition, Taiwan will always occupy the most basic and core position in bilateral relations. Formal diplomatic relations cannot be established.
Pelosi's itinerary: Singapore's foreign ministry confirmed that U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi will hold talks with Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (not pictured) and President Halimah Yacob on August 1, 2022.
(Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs website)
Sino-US relations are now at a historic trough. The atmosphere is different from 30 or 40 years ago. Especially after decades of rapid development, China's strength comparison with the US has become completely different from what it was back then. In other words, this historical change has determined that China's position on the Taiwan issue will be firmer, and the means to defend its core interests will be firmer.
Pelosi is the third-ranked president in the United States, one of the most influential political figures in the United States, and is also a Democrat like Biden.
Therefore, if she visits Taiwan, the nature is much more serious and worse than the visit to Taiwan by Newt Gingrich, the Republican-turned-republican speaker of the House of Representatives under Clinton 25 years ago.
In particular, the highest levels of China and the United States had just finished their telephone talks on July 28. During the talks, the Chinese side made clear the seriousness of the Taiwan issue. Regardless of China's repeated warnings to visit Taiwan, regardless of whether the Biden administration supports it or not, what does the United States mean?
What do you want to do?
Is the promise of US 1 still credible?
Therefore, as long as Pelosi's special plane lands in Taiwan, no matter how much the US explains, from the moment her plane lands, the little mutual trust between China and the US has completely evaporated, and the Biden administration is in China. The credibility of China and the United States will be completely bankrupt, and the Sino-US relationship will be completely over. In the future, no matter how much the United States promises, China will not believe it. What kind of impact Sino-US relations will suffer, you can imagine for yourself.
Second, it would be disastrous for Taiwan and the Tsai Ing-wen government.
Although Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has had a disastrous impact on Sino-US relations, after all, China and the United States are the world's largest developing country and largest developed country. They are not only permanent members of the UN Security Council, but also nuclear powers. Therefore, under normal circumstances, there is a high probability that the two countries will not suddenly escalate the relationship between the two countries to the point of war just because of a mere visit by Pelosi. It seems that the possibility of directly shooting down Pelosi's special plane as Hu Xijin said. Not much.
The picture shows White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby attending a press conference at the White House on July 19, 2022.
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (also translated as Pelosi or Polosi) is more and more likely to visit Taiwan. Kirby said on August 1 that her visit to Taiwan is not uncommon (meaning: less common, but also not very rare) (AP)
But it is different for Taiwan and Tsai Ing-wen, because this is China's own internal affairs, and whether it is at the level of international law or general public opinion, so for Beijing, no matter how you deal with you, Taiwan and Tsai Ing-wen will have full support, especially political support from within the country.
Originally, mainland China was strategically patient with reunification and hoped to achieve national reunification through peaceful means, which would be most beneficial to all parties. Pelosi's thighs can ensure her own safety, which will push mainland China into a corner, forcing China to regard Tsai Ing-wen as the "top evil" element of Taiwan independence and take decisive measures against Taiwan.
Anyone who understands Chinese traditional culture knows that for things like this kind of "eating inside and out", when Chinese people beat their own people behind closed doors, they often beat them harder.
As for how to fight, you can imagine for yourself.
So for Taiwan and the Tsai Ing-wen government, the result will be disastrous.
Third, if this happens, and if mainland China does not take unprecedented and severe retaliation, the impact on China will be disastrous.
The purpose of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan this time is well known. She just wanted to paint her coffin with an "anti-communist" and "pro-Taiwan" paint by slapping China in the face, and also to save the Democratic Party's November midterm elections. Affection.
If Pelosi's special plane lands in Taiwan, as long as it lands, no matter what the reason or excuse, if nothing happens in the end, or if China's response is a familiar routine, then Pelosi's goal has been achieved. In the future, China will stop talking about this issue. No matter how hard it says, no one will believe it.
Some Chinese people will inevitably ask: Since the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996, it has been 26 years, a full 26 years, and two generations of people have tried hard, is this the result?
Could it be that we have shown almost every means of deterrence and still can't stop a Pelosi from visiting Taiwan?
If so, how can we defend our interests and dignity?
If this kind of thing happens, frankly speaking, the rules that China wants to set on this issue, the dignity of the country, and the majesty of the gods and martial arts that China has worked hard to establish over the years will all be blown away by the rise and fall of Pelosi's special plane. Even if you don't talk about it, your heart will be ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
We can also look at this from a historical perspective.
From a historical point of view, the situation in this case is a bit like the Cuban Missile Crisis or the Vietnam War.
At the time, those two conflicts were just two crises, but historically, the former tested the wisdom and courage of the U.S. and Soviet governments at that time, while the latter tested the former Soviet Union's "allies". How fragile plastic promises.
Kissinger, who had seen through the nature of the struggle in international politics, later wrote an article saying that the Soviet Union's retreat in these two matters seemed nothing at the time, but they constituted a turning point in history and laid the foreshadowing of the collapse of the empire.
Reality is the projection of history, and Kissinger's judgment also applies to this time, but who will play the role of the former Soviet Union this time?
US Pelosi will not, will China?
Therefore, in this matter, China has no retreat, and it is impossible to retreat any further. One step back is an abyss, and one step back is irreversible.
Bonnie Glaser, considered to be one of the most senior U.S. experts on the Taiwan Strait issue, has very close ties with Taiwan and is well-connected in China, the U.S. and Taiwan. She has already sensed danger and believes that this is by no means an issue. "One Day Crisis," a reminder to fasten your seat belts, and fasten them.
I increasingly think this is not going to be a one-day crisis. Buckle your seat belts...tightly.
— Bonnie Glaser / Gladys 🇺🇦 (@BonnieGlaser) August 1, 2022
Therefore, if this kind of thing happens, in addition to the catastrophic impact on Sino-US relations, Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen government must bear all the consequences. Tsai Ing-wen will definitely be regarded as the "first evil" element of Taiwan independence, and Beijing will definitely take action against Taiwan. Take decisive action.
Let's wait and see how it ends.
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Experts talk about the possible deployment of Pelosi between China, the United States and Taiwan
