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Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan: what we know about this probable visit which tenses up China

2022-08-02T07:29:49.247Z


The speaker of the American House of Representatives arrived in Malaysia on Tuesday, the second leg of an Asian tour that risks


Nancy Pelosi, who is starting a tour of Asia, landed in Malaysia on Tuesday, before meeting the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the Lower House of Parliament, the national news agency Bernama reported.

But the president of the American House of Representatives could well stop in Taiwan in the coming days.

A potential visit that would take place in a context of tension between China and the United States.

Because this island, Beijing considers it as part of its territory to be reunited, by force if necessary, and has repeatedly warned Washington against a visit by the senior official, which would be experienced as a major provocation.

Will Nancy Pelosi go to Taiwan?

After Singapore and Malaysia, his itinerary includes stops in South Korea and Japan.

The vagueness is knowingly maintained around a possible visit to Taiwan.

Several titles of the international press, however, say that a visit is well planned, the Financial Times referring to a meeting between Ms. Pelosi and the president of Taiwan on Wednesday.

The Taiwanese government declined to comment.

Prime Minister Su Tseng-chang did not confirm the visit on Tuesday when asked by reporters, but thanked Ms Pelosi for her support.

Taiwanese newspaper Liberty Times cites unnamed sources as saying the senior official would land on the island on Tuesday evening and meet Ms Tsai the next day before leaving in the afternoon.

How does the United States position itself vis-à-vis this island state?

The United States practices a so-called “strategic ambiguity” diplomacy with regard to Taiwan, consisting in recognizing only one Chinese government, that of Beijing, while continuing to provide decisive support to Taipei, but in s refraining from saying whether or not they would defend the island militarily in the event of an invasion.

John Kirby reiterated that this policy remains unchanged.

Read alsoTaiwan: five minutes to understand the tensions between China and the United States

If the White House is embarrassed by the situation, John Kirby, its spokesman, said Monday that Ms. Pelosi had "the right to visit Taiwan".

"There is no reason for Beijing to make this visit, which does not depart from long-standing American doctrine, a form of crisis," he added.

The Speaker of the House of Representatives would be, if her visit is confirmed, the highest American official to visit Taiwan since her predecessor Newt Gingrich in 1997.

What would be the diplomatic consequences?

Last week, during a telephone conversation with the American president, Mr. Xi called on the United States not to “play with fire”.

"As we see it, such a visit seems very dangerous and very provocative," Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations Zhang Jun said at a press conference.

"If this visit takes place, it will also weaken the relationship between China and the United States. I'm sure the United States understands that."

To support their message, the Chinese military released a martial-tone video on the Internet on Monday showing soldiers shouting that they are ready for combat, fighters taking off, paratroopers jumping from a plane or a rain of missiles. which annihilate various targets.

Although most observers rate the likelihood of an armed conflict as low, US officials have said they are preparing for possible displays of force by the Chinese military, such as missile strikes in the Taiwan Straits or massive air raids. around the island.

The President of the Chamber is traveling on a military plane and although Washington does not fear a direct attack, the risk of a "miscalculation" is very present.

As for the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense, it said on Tuesday that it was "determined, capable and confident" that it could protect the island against increased threats from China.

“We are meticulously preparing several plans and the appropriate troops will be deployed to respond (…) to the threat posed by the enemy,” the ministry said in a statement.

And the economic consequences?

On Tuesday, the possibility of an imminent visit by the senior American official to Taiwan sent stock markets in Asia plummeting, as investors worried about the risks of escalation with China.

Already feverish after a series of announcements showing that economies are beginning to suffer from soaring inflation and central bank interest rate hikes, operators now fear a destabilization of the region in the event of Chinese retaliation.

As a result, Nancy Pelosi barely arrived in Malaysia, the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock markets suffered the blow, losing about 3% each.

Taipei yielded 1.8% and Tokyo more than 1%.

Elsewhere in the region, Seoul, Singapore, Jakarta, Sydney and Wellington were also down.

This crisis could constitute a new “short-term disturbance” for investors, but “it is always worrying when it happens”, commented on Bloomberg Radio Ayako Yoshioka, analyst at Wealth Enhancement Group.

Source: leparis

All news articles on 2022-08-02

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