If a person who has been in a coma for many years wakes up in the hospital on August 2, 2022 and sees the headlines on TV news, an 82-year-old, powerless speaker of the California House of Representatives may Hundreds of thousands of people tracking the flight's itinerary online in real time, which triggered the regional peace crisis between China and the United States, have gone on fire around Taiwan. They may wonder whether they have returned to the real world or are still dreaming.
The international political earthquake caused by Nancy Pelosi's planned visit to Taiwan is essentially a ridiculous thing that is almost beyond reality, but it does exist in reality.
Since Trump took office, it is nothing new for the US government to use the Taiwan card as a part of the confrontation between China and the US.
Since the Democratic government came to power, Biden himself has repeatedly "gaps" saying that he wants to guard Taiwan, gradually pushing the "strategic ambiguous" spectrum of the United States, which has been preventing the CCP's military reunification while preventing Taiwan's independence, to "preventing military reunification" (that is, to prevent military reunification). It is the party that tolerates the Taiwan independence tendency to a certain extent.
How to prepare the psychological construction for the Americans to guard Taiwan has also become a major topic of discussion in the US diplomatic and public opinion circles.
The "real" of the "Taiwan brand" in the United States
From the standpoint of the US Indo-Pacific strategy, this strategy of using Taiwan to control China is completely in line with instrumental rationality.
Taiwan is the core of the first island chain. If the United States can build a military defense line that the CCP cannot break through here and foster a pro-American regime for a long time, it will be a major constraint to the expansion of China's geopolitical power.
What's more, Taiwan's industrial development in recent decades has made it a production base for more than 90% of the world's advanced chips, which makes Taiwan's importance far beyond the geopolitical and military levels in the foreseeable future. to a contest of global technological, industrial and economic power.
From this perspective, many American scholars also believe that to play the Taiwan card well, the basis is to strengthen Taiwan's asymmetric defense capabilities, which is the so-called "poison frog" or "porcupine" strategy—— This is more important than gaining Taiwan's exposure and participation in international forums such as the World Health Organization (WHO).
Given the long-term disparity in military spending across the Taiwan Strait, if Taiwan firmly rejects the possibility of peaceful reunification with the political support of the United States, the only thing that can prevent or hinder military reunification is this "porcupine" strategy.
Screenshot of Flightradar24 at 5 pm on August 2.
The picture shows Pelosi's flight Spar19 leaving Malaysia and appearing to be heading towards the Philippines.
(Screenshot from Flightradar24 website)
In the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), Washington specifically mentioned the importance of supporting Taiwan's asymmetric defense, and even required the Department of Defense to issue an annual report on this and make plans on how to improve Taiwan's asymmetric defense capabilities. .
The U.S. Senate has also been considering a Taiwan Policy Act since June, which would amend the provisions of the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 to provide "defensive weapons" to Taiwan, and adjust it to "have defensive weapons." To help deter the People's Liberation Army from aggression", provide $6.5 billion in funding over the next four years for the purchase of weapons or for training and military exercises.
The bill also calls for the designation of Taiwan as a "major non-NATO ally" and directs the administration to prioritize and expedite arms shipments to Taiwan.
The bill also has the support of both Democratic and Republican senators.
From the perspective of the United States, these are the substantive infrastructure of its Taiwan brand in China.
However, this is a long process.
Recently, some scholars have posted on the military analysis platform "War on the Rocks", saying that the Taiwan authorities have not even fully accepted the leading policy of asymmetric warfare (relative to the deployment of traditional warfare), and military training is still unrealistic and unprepared. Facing the energy, food, ammunition, and medical reserves required by the CCP's military command, he believes that to implement the "porcupine" strategy, adjustments need to be made in years.
Pelosi: The picture shows the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (left) meeting with Azhar (right), Speaker of the Lower House of the Malaysian House of Representatives, on August 2, 2022.
(AP)
The "virtual" of Pelosi's Taiwan visit plan
What we want to ask is: What substantial role can Pelosi's visit to Taiwan play in this long-term US strategy against Taiwan?
The answer is: nothing.
Pelosi's visit will not bring any substantive results for Taiwan's military, diplomacy, economy, etc. It will only have her posing with some Taiwanese people and things as a souvenir to show the United States' support for "democracy" and Taiwan. .
For Pelosi, who is likely to lose the position of Speaker of the House of Representatives after this year's midterm elections, this high-profile gesture on the international political stage can also be regarded as a "farewell" to "glorious retirement".
For these symbolic things, Pelosi knew that she should not do it, and deliberately stepped on the red line of the Chinese side, ignoring the stern warnings of the Chinese government, ignoring the dissuasion of the Biden authorities, ignoring the 95th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army, the CCP II In critical seasons such as the Ten Big Tens, he did not hesitate to shrink his whereabouts, risking that China's military actions might go against the grain with the US and Taiwan.
"Financial Times" columnist Edward Luce described Pelosi's behavior as "arsonist", and compared Taiwan's geopolitical position to China to Cuba during the missile crisis; many Western media also criticized Pelosi for this. Consistently high-cost gestures express reservations.
If in the end Pelosi's adventure does lead to real conflict, it may be the most absurd event in the history of global diplomacy.
Of course, if Pelosi's visit is successful, it will be a precedent for stepping on the red line of the CCP against Taiwan, and it may open the door for dignitaries from other Western countries to visit Taiwan.
However, even if these dignitaries from various countries actually visit Taiwan with Pelosi's revocation in the future, their significance can only be limited to symbolic symbols like Pelosi's visit-no major country in the world dares to explicitly abandon the one-China principle. .
The picture shows White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby attending a press conference at the White House on July 19, 2022.
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (also translated as Pelosi or Polosi) is more and more likely to visit Taiwan. Kirby said on August 1 that her visit to Taiwan is not uncommon (meaning: less common, but also not very rare) (AP)
Why be humble and humble?
Compared with such a high-profile diplomatic gesture, the US's "porcupine" strategy towards Taiwan is full of loopholes.
For example, its Harpoon anti-ship missile arms sales to Taiwan at the end of 2020 will not be delivered until 2028; and the US department that is planning to cooperate with the Taiwan military in training and other activities is only a temporary or reserve National Guard. Not active duty Army or Marine Corps.
To put it bluntly, the so-called "support" of the United States for Taiwan is still at the level of being more practical than practical.
Although Biden and Pelosi may have different opinions on Pelosi's planned visit to Taiwan, they agree on the emptiness of aid to Taiwan.
For the United States, using Taiwan as the bridgehead for China in the first island chain can only be a time-limited geopolitical strategy.
The distance between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is only more than 100 kilometers away. With the continuous improvement of China’s military power, the chances of the United States being able to help Taiwan against military reunification are getting lower and lower. Some military models also show this. Guarding Taiwan, for the United States , will evolve from a "do or not" question to a "can or can't" question.
Faced with the existence of a time limit, the most instrumental rational strategy for the United States is to try to extend this time limit on the one hand, and prepare for the situation after the time limit has passed.
On July 29, at the "2+2" meeting of foreign and economic leaders of the United States and Japan, the two sides reached a plan to jointly develop cutting-edge 2-nanometer semiconductors - an obvious attempt to replace Taiwan's strategic industrial advantages.
Regardless of whether or not this will eventually come to pass, the fact that it excludes Taiwan has shown that the United States is prepared for its time limit for Taiwan.
To extend the time limit of this bridgehead, in addition to the implementation of the "porcupine" strategy, there is only firm support for Taiwan.
The "porcupine" strategy is easier said than done, but posing is essentially a verbal action.
Biden's "slip" on the TV station is exactly this kind of trade-off.
This is also the meaning of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. However, the political reality of US-Taiwan relations reflected by her visit to Taiwan is contrary to the meaning it wants to convey.
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