Editor's note: Shenzhen Satellite TV's direct news "The Commanding Heights" and "Slow Watch" two programs on July 30 about the possible adventures of U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi (also translated as Pelosi or Polosi) " "Visit Taiwan" and the Sino-US game, interviewed Wang Wen, Executive Dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China, and Executive Director of the China-US Humanities Exchange Research Center (Ministry of Education).
The relevant content has attracted widespread attention after it was published in multiple articles on Shenzhen TV and new media platforms.
The text of the interview was published on the Observer website, and part of the content was published on the English version of the Global Times.
The following is the relevant text of the interview.
Core Summary:
●China is trying to lead the game between China and the United States to avoid the "Thucydides Trap", while the United States irresponsibly jumps the two countries into the pit of great power conflict in an attempt to gain strategic interests in the conflict between the two countries.
The game between China and the United States has come to the brink, and China is trying its best to save it.
●China must compete with the United States for the right to speak in the world on "who has the sincerity to improve Sino-US relations", let the world see that China is a truly responsible global power, and let those insightful people in the United States feel to the sincerity of China's genuine desire to improve Sino-US relations.
●According to current polls, in the mid-term elections at the end of the year, the Democrats are still 4 seats away from continuing to control the Senate (100 seats) and 24 seats away from the majority in the House of Representatives (435 seats); while the corresponding number of seats for the Republicans is only 2 seats and 7 seats.
With a high probability, the Republican Party has a better chance of winning the majority in both houses.
●In the past few months, Pelosi's frequent deliberation on the Taiwan issue, hesitation, and search for "step" solutions all reflect the political shortsightedness and "paper tiger"-like strategic guilt of American politicians.
They clearly underestimated China's strategic will to defend its sovereignty.
●The Taiwan issue is now more and more like a grey rhinoceros of Sino-US risks.
If there is an outbreak, the United States will definitely be the first to be hit by the gray rhino.
● Believe in the final rationality of Chinese and American policymakers.
The possibility of "missing fire" between the military forces of China and the United States is rising, but the possibility of a direct military conflict between China and the United States is still unlikely, because the button is in the hands of the two heads of state. Judging from the content of the dialogue between the five heads of state, direct military conflict is avoided. Conflict remains the greatest common denominator between the two countries.
● China and the United States are far from the time for a showdown.
In the future, China and the United States will still have the feeling of "hand-to-hand combat" and "fierce struggle" on many issues. China must adapt to the rhythm and expectations of a protracted struggle with the United States, and also increase its tolerance for the risks of "missing guns".
●The domestic political struggle in the United States is very complicated, and there is no need to overturn the entire chessboard between China and the United States because of a pawn made by a speaker of the House of Representatives.
From this point of view, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has not yet reached the time when China and the United States are completely torn apart.
●For cross-strait reunification to better promote the great cause of national rejuvenation, the key is for China to surpass the United States in economic strength, achieve a level close to that of the United States in financial and military strength, and form an absolute ability to counter sanctions internationally, so that the United States must Even after the reunification of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, no external force for long-term interference can be formed.
● Historically, in the global technological competition, if the first and second industrial revolutions are characterized by mechanization and electrification, China is almost completely absent; the third industrial revolution characterized by informationization, China People catch up with the evening table; then, in the fourth industrial revolution, which is mainly characterized by intelligent technology and low-carbon technology, the Chinese have basically stood on the same starting line as developed countries, and will eventually have the last laugh.
1. Why does the United States frequently take the initiative to talk to China without changing its China policy?
Q: On the evening of July 28, the Chinese and US leaders had a telephone conversation.
The Chinese side said in a statement that the two sides had "frankly communicated and exchanged", and only used the adjective "frankly".
There is no such word as "constructive" throughout the manuscript.
How do you see this phenomenon?
Meanwhile, the call was nearly half an hour longer than the last.
What do you think of the length of this call?
We talked frankly for more than two hours, what was the main thing to talk about?
Wang Wen:
Since Biden took office, the Chinese and US leaders have had a total of 5 phone calls or video meetings.
In February 2021, the call will be about 2 hours; in September, one and a half hours; in November, the video conference will be 3 and a half hours; in March 2022, the video call will be 1 hour and 50 minutes.
This time is the second longest call, and it is also an extremely important dialogue between the leaders of China and the United States at an important node.
(Hong Kong 01 cartography)
The statement did not use "constructive". In fact, it implied an important message that Biden has not yet come out of the haze of Trump's China policy, and the two countries are facing old problems left over from the Trump era. : That is the misjudgment of the US-China relations, the misunderstanding of China's development, and the misunderstanding of the people of the two countries and the international community.
In response to these old problems, China has been correcting its deviations and reshaping the relationship between China and the United States at the level of strategic concepts.
The Chinese side reminds the US side not to use "competition" to define Sino-US relations and not to play with fire on the Taiwan issue, especially this time when the Chinese side mentioned that "public opinion cannot be violated, and playing with fire will surely set oneself on fire." This sentence is quite serious and very clear. The U.S. warning is even more of an exhortation to the U.S. side to pull back from the precipice.
It should be said that the Chinese side is trying to steer the game between China and the United States to avoid the "Thucydides Trap", while the US side tries its best to promise a "four non-no-nonsense" China policy, but it says one thing and does another, and irresponsibly moves the two countries toward great powers. Jumping into the pit of conflict, trying to gain strategic interests in the conflict between the two countries.
From this perspective, the game between China and the United States has come to the brink, and China is trying its best to save it.
China-US Presidents Talk: The picture shows a news report about a phone call between US President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping on a TV outside a shopping mall in Beijing, China, on November 16, 2021.
(Getty Images)
Q: According to public reports, since June, senior officials of China and the US have communicated with each other five times, and now there is a call between the heads of state.
But we have not seen an improvement in Sino-US relations, on the contrary, a crisis is actually brewing at the moment.
Therefore, some people on the Internet believe that the real purpose of the communication between the United States and China is not to improve Sino-US relations, but to understand China's trump card.
What do you think?
Wang Wen:
Actually, Sino-US relations are playing a clear card.
China's position and bottom line are very clear. It requires the United States to maintain the "one China" policy, not to play with fire on the Taiwan issue, and to work with each other to create a new type of major-country relationship featuring "win-win cooperation, mutual respect, and no conflict or confrontation."
However, the United States is "pretending to be confused" in an attempt to permanently maintain the hegemony of the superpower. To put it bluntly, it is to continue the willfulness and hegemony of the United States to do whatever it wants.
The United States is keen to offer to speak with the Chinese head of state on many occasions. There are at least two ulterior motives: First, the Biden administration is trying to create a false pretense that the United States wants to improve Sino-US relations internationally, so that those affected by the tension between China and the United States are affected of other countries see the so-called "good faith" of the United States.
In fact, this hypocritical mask has long been torn down.
Second, at home, the Biden administration is trying to respond to the needs of the minority who want cooperation between the two countries, as well as those politicians who want to put pressure on China. It wants to express distorted facts such as "I'm working hard, but China doesn't listen to me."
This can explain the fundamental reason why China-U.S. relations have not been improved after many conversations. That is, the U.S. lacks the sincerity to truly improve Sino-U.S. relations.
This shows on the other hand that China must compete with the United States for the right to speak in the international arena in terms of "who really has the sincerity to improve Sino-US relations", and let the world see that China is a truly responsible global power. Those with insight in the United States feel the sincerity of China's real desire to improve Sino-US relations.
U.S. President Joe Biden has said that the military doesn't think Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is a good idea.
The White House said on July 27 that Biden will have a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping within days.
(AP)
Q: "Public opinion must not be violated. Playing with fire will set you on fire." This sentence carries a lot of weight. Can the US measure it?
In fact, we see what John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, is saying: "[We] have no reason for things to get to that point, like a conflict, or an increase in tension. Because The one-China policy of the United States has not changed." Is this stupid or pretending to be stupid?
Wang Wen:
The United States is both acting stupid and really stupid.
The so-called "playing stupid" means that they clearly know China's bottom line and red line on the Taiwan issue, but they are still repeatedly touching it. To show his style as a global leader.
The so-called "stupid" refers to the era when the United States is too superstitious about its own national power, thinking that it is still like the 19th and early 20th centuries, when China would surrender by stopping a few warships of the Yangtze River and the coast. The US warning is just to say that the US will not pay the price.
This kind of "stupidity" is what the United States has been used to as a global superpower and hegemony for a long time.
In front of Russia, the "stupid" United States has a bad nose; in front of China, the United States is also in a bad nose.
Now, U.S. inflation, declining trade capacity, declining soft power, domestic political polarization, and accelerating de-dollarization all testify to these "scratch-on-the-nose" performances.
A success-class frigate fires an anti-aircraft missile during Taiwan's annual Hanguang exercise on Taiwan's east coast near Yilan City, Taiwan, July 26, 2022.
(AP)
Q: The phone calls between the two heads of state are basically different, so why are you still planning for a face-to-face summit?
Biden's words are inaccurate and cannot be implemented. What is the point of regular communication?
Wang Wen:
Actually, the two heads of state have some consensus, such as not breaking out a new cold war, avoiding strategic misjudgment and military conflict, and so on.
The heads of state of the two countries recognized that the relationship between the two countries is currently facing many disruptive factors, and there must be a "brake" mechanism at the head of state level before the worst happens.
From this point of view, the irregular communication between the two heads of state not only reflects the role of the "head of state leading" in bilateral relations, but also reflects the necessary responsibility of the head of state of a major country to the world, and it is also a major country's obligation to world stability.
From China's perspective, the dialogue between the heads of state is also of great significance in shaping China-US relations in the new era.
2. Is it time for a showdown between China and the US?
Q: Actually, we have seen that with China's tough stance, there have been disagreements in the US.
Democrats, in particular, seem to have expressed unease.
Because either way, the Republicans seem to have something to gain from it.
Pelosi intends to move to Taiwan, and the US Congress seems to have demonstrated non-partisan unity, but behind this unity, there is still intrigue, and in the end, it will always end in the mid-term elections.
What are the plans of the Republican and Democratic parties in the United States, revolving around Pelosi's "running to Taiwan"?
Wang Wen:
According to the current polls, in the mid-term elections at the end of the year, the Democrats still need 4 seats to continue to control the majority in the Senate (100 seats), and 24 seats away from the majority in the House of Representatives (435 seats); and the corresponding seats for the Republicans There are only 2 and 7 seats.
With a high probability, the Republican Party has a better chance of winning the majority in both houses.
Both parties are playing the China card and trying to gain points through the "Taiwan card". Pelosi is even more desperate, because once the Democratic Party loses the majority of the House of Representatives, she will lose the position of Speaker of the House of Representatives. Lose the status of America's No. 3 man.
Therefore, the Democratic Party has made every effort to help Pelosi gain the image of "brave", "wisdom" and "responsibility" during this trip to Asia, in an attempt to "visit Taiwan" and other Asian countries safely, thereby defending the United States in the Western Pacific. hegemony.
The Republicans hope that Pelosi will screw up this Asia trip, and encourage Pelosi not to admit defeat and be intimidated by China; they also dig a hole for Pelosi on the issue of "visiting Taiwan", because "visiting Taiwan" will lead to China and the United States. If there is a conflict, the Democratic Party will bear a heavy responsibility.
To put it bluntly, both parties are a bunch of politicians, and they all consider the immediate interests of votes, while almost no one is thinking about the overall and long-term interests of China and the United States.
Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi held talks with Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and President Halimah Yacob on August 1, 2022.
(Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs website)
Q: There are also analysts who believe that the reason why Biden is in a hurry to speak to the Chinese leader is that he asks the Chinese side for the Ukraine issue.
If Pelosi comes to power, will China and the US cooperate on some major global hotspot issues?
Wang Wen:
It should be said that China's prevention and warning strategies have played a role, from the early dialogue between the heads of state to diplomacy and military deterrence.
Before Pelosi's visit to take off, the United States has not publicly stated in advance whether Pelosi actually visited Taiwan, but if Pelosi still "visits Taiwan" in the end, or "visits" in a private capacity It will have a huge impact on the few remaining cooperation foundations of Sino-US relations. Continuing to strengthen China's determination to fight against the United States and be good at fighting will make the United States pay the painful price it deserves.
To a certain extent, it will also speed up the process of China's reunification.
I think the United States should learn from China's old saying, "Leave a line in everything, and see you in the future."
The United States has been doing this in recent years. I believe that in the future, it will become increasingly impossible for the United States to hope that China will help and cooperate with the interests of the United States on issues such as trade, manufacturing, US debt, and anti-terrorism.
Q: If, under our strong warning, Pelosi gave up and dared not go to Taiwan, what would it mean?
Wang Wen:
"Give up on Taiwan" is what Pelosi should do, it is her duty.
If it really gives up, it shows that the United States is still self-aware and reminds the United States that this is a completely unnecessary diplomatic incident.
The U.S. government should be clear that repeatedly playing tricks on some wrong issues, especially the Taiwan issue, will bring the U.S. not benefits but losses.
The United States should know that China is not easy to mess with.
On some common issues, the Chinese are easy to negotiate, but on key issues and core interests, the Chinese will definitely fight to the end.
The Taiwan issue is now more and more like a gray rhinoceros at the risk of China and the United States.
If there is an outbreak, the United States will definitely be the first to be hit by the gray rhino.
Q: The People's Liberation Army is conducting various exercises in the waters of the South China Sea in the East. The USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier strike group has also entered the South China Sea to prepare for escort. The atmosphere is quite tense. Will Pelosi's adventure trigger the fourth crisis in the Taiwan Strait?
Is there a possibility of direct military conflict between China and the United States?
Wang Wen:
The possibility of a Taiwan Strait crisis exists, but China should not be afraid of a similar crisis, and should be confident that it can manage this crisis.
In the past 40 years or so, China has gradually become familiar with the U.S. approach to China, especially in the past four or five years, from the trade war to the Xinjiang and South China Sea issues, to Hong Kong, human rights, and now the Taiwan issue. countermeasures have become more adept and powerful.
For China's rise, the United States is the worst and biggest external disturbance variable.
Taiwan is on the other side of the mainland and will never be able to escape. The key now is to control the United States so that the United States does not become a troublemaker in cross-strait relations.
As for whether there will be a direct military conflict between China and the United States?
I believe that the ultimate rationality of Chinese and American policymakers.
The possibility of "missing fire" between the military forces of China and the United States is rising, but the possibility of a direct military conflict between China and the United States is still unlikely, because the button is in the hands of the two heads of state. Judging from the content of the dialogue between the five heads of state, direct military conflict is avoided. Conflict remains the greatest common denominator between the two countries.
Even the most hawks in the United States must consider what it will be like to confront the world's second largest military spending power!
U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a surprise visit to Ukraine's capital Kyiv on May 1, 2022, to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The picture shows a photo released by the Uzbek Presidential Office, showing Zelensky taking a group photo with Pelosi and the visiting group. On the far left of the picture is Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba.
(AP)
Q: In the diplomatic turmoil caused by Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan, will Pelosi prepare a plan to go down the stairs when neither China and the United States show weakness?
Wang Wen:
Pelosi has been testing and preparing a step plan.
Last time, she chose "tactical positive" and canceled her visit to Taiwan on the grounds that she had the new crown.
This time, she did not announce or confirm whether she would go until July 31, showing her fear of China's power and avoiding over-stimulating China; now many public opinions are circulating that Pelosi has a "personal identity" "Go, maybe just stay, not see Taiwanese politicians, etc., to show yet another strategic trick of the US to cut sausages on the Taiwan issue.
In the past few months, Pelosi's frequent deliberation on the Taiwan issue, hesitation, and search for "step" solutions all reflect the political short-sightedness and "paper tiger"-like strategic conscience of American politicians.
They clearly underestimated China's strategic will to defend its sovereignty.
Q: The US keeps hollowing out the one-China policy. Is it time for a showdown between China and the US on the Taiwan issue?
Wang Wen:
Depends on the definition of the word "showdown".
If the "showdown" refers to the fact that major US leaders cannot visit Taiwan without China's permission, it is now "showdown".
By dismissing Pelosi's "Taiwan visit", China has drawn a red line for the United States on the Taiwan issue.
If the United States dares to cross this bottom line, it will surely pay a heavy price.
If the "showdown" means that China and the United States are going to fight each other, and the Taiwan issue will lead to a full-scale military confrontation, then the leaders of China and the United States should maintain basic confidence, especially confidence in China's control.
China and the U.S. are far from a showdown.
In the future, China and the United States will still have the feeling of "hand-to-hand combat" and "fierce struggle" on many issues. China must adapt to the rhythm and expectations of a protracted struggle with the United States, and also increase its tolerance for the risks of "missing guns".
Q: Against the background of Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan, what kind of message did the two heads of state still communicate as planned?
Does it mean that even if Pelosi visits Taiwan, China and the United States will still fight without breaking?
Wang Wen:
"Fight without breaking" is the last line of defense that China has always hoped to maintain in its game against the United States.
But if China's core interests are hit, there is no need to guard against the "unbreakable" line of defense.
This is the current strategic will of China.
"Playing with fire will set you on fire" is an expression of this strategic will.
In response to the "Pelosi's visit to Taiwan" incident, China has demonstrated strategic precision and strategic fortitude toward the United States. First, it only warned Pelosi about her visit to Taiwan, not Pelosi herself; second, it only spoke of the Chinese military. They will react, but they did not say what kind of response they will take to avoid adding fuel to the fire and intensifying conflicts. Third, the previous phone call between the heads of state of China and the United States has also left room for resolution in case the situation gets out of control.
The domestic political struggle in the United States is very complicated, and there is no need to overturn the entire chessboard between China and the United States because of a pawn made by a speaker of the House of Representatives.
From this point of view, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has not yet reached the time when China and the United States are completely torn apart.
On July 28, U.S. President Biden had a phone call with President Xi Jinping, saying that the U.S. policy on Taiwan has not changed, and it opposes unilateral changes to the status quo or undermining the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait.
(AP)
Q: Some netizens suggested that they should take advantage of Pelosi's possible "visit to Taiwan" to liberate Taiwan in one fell swoop.
What do you think of this suggestion?
Wang Wen:
Regarding the possibility of Pelosi's "visiting Taiwan" this time, I believe that the Chinese mainland's plan is sufficient.
Over the years, China has achieved a lot of results in its "post-mover" game against the United States.
For example, when the United States launched a trade war, China fought back, and the effect was that the total trade volume between China and the United States and China's total surplus with the United States did not fall but instead increased; the US technology war against China forced China to become independent in its technology strategy; security law.
From this point of view, we need to have confidence in China's "post-mover" game strategy against the United States.
The United States continues to create the Taiwan issue and is also accelerating the process of cross-strait reunification.
The core problem of cross-strait relations is the game between China and the United States.
Taiwan is only over 100 kilometers away from the mainland and cannot be moved.
China must be unified, and it will inevitably be unified.
It is certainly not difficult for the Chinese mainland to win Taiwan at present.
China must maintain the greatest strategic endurance and perseverance for cross-strait reunification, and the biggest factor behind the interference in the reunification process is the United States.
The timetable and roadmap for cross-strait reunification must ultimately serve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; the continuous process of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation cannot be interrupted by the reunification process.
What needs to be considered now is not only the question of when to reunify, but also how to better serve the national rejuvenation after reunification.
For cross-strait reunification to better promote the great cause of national rejuvenation, the key is for China to surpass the United States in economic strength, achieve a level close to that of the United States in financial and military strength, and develop an absolute ability to counter sanctions internationally, so that even if the United States Even after the reunification of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, external forces that interfere for a long time cannot be formed.
3. How to see the possibility of "China-US decoupling"
Q: In the second half of the year, China and the United States each have extremely important political agendas.
When it comes to major events, Chinese people want to be quiet and calm.
However, the political logic of the United States is different from ours, and major elections in the United States are prone to spillover effects.
Under such circumstances, will there be ups and downs or twists in Sino-US relations in the second half of the year?
Wang Wen:
Tension in Sino-US relations will become the norm for many years to come.
The second half of 2022 is the peak period of tensions and twists between China and the United States.
In the mid-term elections in the United States, risking the "China card" is the main means for parties to gain points. This has led to the outbreak and spillover of risks between China and the United States much more frequently than in the past.
In Xinjiang, Taiwan, Hong Kong, human rights, ideology, trade, and many other fields, the United States will continue to play tricks, creating things out of nothing, telling right and wrong, confounding right and wrong, and challenging China's bottom line and endurance.
This requires China to be more precise in its fight against the United States. On the one hand, it needs to exert its force precisely on specific issues, and it needs to fight the relevant personnel of the United States to be painful and hard, and it must have willpower.
On the other hand, we must also be vigilant not to fall into the Thucydides trap of "conflict between great powers".
In this regard, China-US people-to-people and cultural exchanges and strengthening of the social ties between the two countries have become very important.
Taiwan's "Hanguang No. 38" actual military exercise officially ended on July 29. In the early morning of the last day of the exercise, the military carried out "anti-aircraft landing operations in the garrison area" at Taipei Songshan Airport.
(Military News Agency)
Q: Just one day before the call between the leaders of China and the United States, the US Senate passed the $280 billion "Chip and Science" bill, claiming to bring chips back to the United States. Biden even went "online" to promote the bill while sick.
How should we view this bill?
Wang Wen:
Over the years, the United States has continuously introduced laws similar to technology competition, and adopted technology blockade and embargo measures against China that violated market rules, in an attempt to prevent China from becoming a technological power.
It should be said that the technological competition between China and the United States provoked by the United States has reached a white-hot stage.
But I want to say that the US attempt to suppress China's technological development is doomed to be futile.
From household appliances to aerospace technology, from 5G products to large aircraft, China has been catching up and surpassing technology in the past 40 years. At present, the United States is still forming a technological advantage over China in many fields such as chips and industrial software. Broken by China in the next few years.
As predicted in the report "The Great Competition: The Rivalry between China and the United States in the 21st Century" launched by the relevant think tanks of two top universities, Cambridge and Harvard, at the end of 2021, China will surely surpass the United States to become the world's No. 1 high-tech manufacturing power.
Historically, in the global technological competition, China is almost completely absent from the first and second industrial revolutions characterized by mechanization and electrification; the third industrial revolution characterized by informatization, the Chinese Catch up with the evening banquet; then, in the fourth industrial revolution characterized by intelligent technology and low-carbon technology, the Chinese have basically stood on the same starting line as developed countries, and will eventually have the last laugh.
Q: The United States is now engaged in a "chip alliance", hoping to contain China.
However, many chip companies in Taiwan are worried that their interests will be damaged after breaking away from the mainland market.
Previously, the United States pulled TSMC to open a branch in the United States. TSMC did not dare to resist, but this time, it boldly opposed it for the sake of the "chip alliance". As Taiwan's chip leader, TSMC behaved like this. Why?
Wang Wen:
China is currently the world's largest semiconductor and chip market. In recent years, the annual import value of semiconductors has exceeded 320 billion US dollars. This is the lifeline of the survival and development of many chip manufacturing companies.
In the chip market, China has actually formed buyer power.
For a company like TSMC, the mentality is quite complicated.
He will support the strategy of the United States to suppress the development of chip manufacturing in mainland China. If mainland China really cannot develop a strategically independent chip industry, it will be beneficial to the development of these companies in the long run.
But if these companies do not export chips to mainland China, it will be equivalent to cutting off their food and making them unable to survive.
Between development and survival, survival will definitely be chosen.
As a result, the "chip alliance" that attempted to impose a chip embargo on China is bound to fail.
The picture shows a man walking past TSMC's headquarters in Hsinchu, Taiwan on October 20, 2021.
(AP)
Q: Although the United States still engages in containment and decoupling in the fields of economy, technology and industry, in fact, there are more things that China and the United States need to cooperate with.
This includes macroeconomic policy coordination, maintaining the stability of global industrial and supply chains, and ensuring global energy and food security.
Frankly speaking, in these respects, does China demand more from the US, or does the US demand more from China?
Wang Wen:
Objectively speaking, China and the United States have mutual needs, which is determined by the status of both countries as global powers.
In different fields, the degree of mutual demand between China and the United States is different.
In areas such as higher education and technological innovation, China has a strong demand for the United States; in the fields of market purchases and consumer goods manufacturing, the United States has a greater demand for China.
The two countries are interdependent, and neither can leave the other.
This determines that the United States cannot succeed in containing and decoupling.
In the past three or four years, the United States has tried to decouple trade and fought a major trade war. As a result, the trade volume between China and the United States has become larger and larger. Instead of making up for it, China's surplus with the United States has widened, which fully shows. It is impossible for the two countries to decouple, and the US has greater demand for China in manufacturing and daily necessities.
The U.S.-China trade war is actually the U.S. loser.
也因為兩國相互依賴、不可脱鈎以及中美貿易戰的經驗，更加堅定了中國當前的對美敢於鬥爭善於鬥爭、以鬥爭求合作的方針的正確性。
問：美國會否一直致力於中美脱鈎？目前看來，脱鈎主要是哪些方面？對中國影響有多大？
王文：所謂「中美脱鈎」，其實是非常複雜的，我將其分為六種情況：一是不脱不鈎。過去十多年來，中美在有些領域本來就沒有任何關聯，不存在「脱」或「鈎」的問題，如核武器、航空航天以及其他涉及國家安全的國防科工領域。
二是易脱難鈎。主要指那些難以建立聯繫、但極易斷裂的領域，如意識形態領域。在國家主流思想和意識形態領域，整體呈現出易脱難鈎的趨勢。
三是高脱低鈎。美國試圖讓高端製造業回流美國，僅保留低端產業在中國。
四是先脱後鈎。美國希望在半導體行業重構產業鏈，打造以美國為中心的全球價值鏈和多邊貿易體系。美國想要實現的「先脱後鈎」、「高脱低鈎」局面，都是相當困難的。但對於中國而言，不能輕視這種可能性。
五是半脱半鈎。指現在中美兩國科研因合作遭遇制度性因素干擾而出現「半脱」狀態，又因合作難度加大影響本國科技以及經濟利益而呈現「半鈎」狀態。這將會是中美科技界達成新的戰略默契之前長期存在的狀態。
拜登亞洲行：圖為美國總統拜登與韓國總統尹錫悅2022年5月20日在三星電子位於韓國平澤的半導體工廠。拜登5月20日到達韓國，展開亞洲訪問之旅。（AP）
六是難脱易鈎。中美兩國新冠疫情以前年均600萬的人員往來，將在疫情後很快恢復。中美貿易出現結構調整，但兩國呈現天然的市場紐帶，很難被部分政客所斷裂，這也是疫情近三年兩國貿易總額不大降反飆升的重要原因。
總而言之，美國一些人有「全面脱鈎」之心，卻無「全面脱鈎」之力。或者說，美國一部分人正在嚷嚷着想「脱鈎」，卻擋不住另一批人悄悄地在做「掛鈎」的事情。
問：拜登政府其實非常弱勢，美方對華總是說一套做一套，從根本上講，也是源於這種弱勢。那麼，對於這樣一個弱勢的政府，說到卻做不到的政府，我們又該如何與之打交道？
Wang Wen:
The latest polls show that Biden's domestic support rate has dropped to 38%, making him the most unpopular US president in history.
Biden is old-fashioned, with different policies, smooth, but soft and powerless political means, and a luxurious team that is too big and inappropriate.
In dealing with such a U.S. government, China should emphasize more extensiveness, precision and diversification.
Extensive means that China cannot regard the United States as its primary diplomatic target as it did a decade or two ago, but should deal extensively with countries around the world.
China consolidates the "Belt and Road", continuously improves China-Russia relations, China-Southeast Asia relations, China-Middle East relations, China-Africa relations, and China-Latin America relations. To suppress the manic mentality of the "pawns" of the United States such as Japan and Australia, etc., and widely establish an international united front.
Precision means that China should not only maintain cooperation with the United States in areas such as climate change and people-to-people exchanges, but also resolutely fight against the United States on Taiwan issues, Xinjiang issues, human rights issues, and ideological issues.
Seek cooperation through struggle, and strive for greater cooperation between the two countries in order to accurately defend national interests.
Diversification means that China not only deals with the US authorities, but also deals more with all walks of life in the US. For example, a considerable part of the business, trade, and agricultural sectors are all American targets that China can unite with.
From this perspective, China's policy toward the United States is becoming more mature, more sophisticated, and more like a true world power.
This article is reproduced from the WeChat public account of "Renmin University Chongyang", with the original title: "If Pelosi takes risks, will it trigger the "Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis"?
".
Pelosi is determined to go his own way and the situation will never return. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan | Night visit to Taiwan rumors that if the three major disasters between China, the United States and Taiwan come true, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan |
