Despite the threats and intimidation: "China is not interested in a third world war"

The visit of the Speaker of the American House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan caused panic in the world, which expected a strong military response from China against the sovereign island - and beyond that against the United States.

According to Matan Vilnai, former Israeli ambassador to China, all parties understand very well that there is no interest in such a conflict - and for now you can relax

Tali Goldstein

03/08/2022

Wednesday, 03 August 2022, 12:41 Updated: 13:00

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On video: Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and the Chinese military exercise in response (Photo: Reuters)

Taiwan's Ports Authority today (Wednesday) asked ships to find alternative routes and avoid areas where China announced that it was conducting a military exercise around the island.

Ships entering and leaving major seaports in Taiwan, including the Port of Taipei, should be aware of a Chinese exercise from Aug. 4 to Aug. 7, the Taiwan Bureau of Maritime Ports said in alerts.

The Chinese army announced that it will conduct naval and air military exercises on Thursday-Sunday in response to the visit of the Speaker of the American House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, who landed in Tipa last night, today met with the president of Taiwan and visited the parliament - as part of a tour of Asia, which also includes Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan Ahead of the visit, China launched 21 fighter jets into the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) - an area of ​​airspace over land or water where identification, tracking and control of the aircraft - of Taiwan is required. The Taiwanese military responded with warnings in connection and activated air defense systems to monitor other Aircraft activity Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Xia Peng even summoned the United States Ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, last night in protest of Pelosi's visit.

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen today thanked Pelosi for visiting the sovereign island, which China considers part of it and threatens to occupy it.

"In light of the deliberately escalating military threats, Taiwan will not surrender," she said from the presidential office in Taipei.

"We will continue to resolutely preserve the sovereignty of our nation and protect democracy."

Pelosi, who is known for her criticism of China over the years, published an editorial after landing in Taipei in which she explained why she chose to be the first House Speaker in 25 years to visit Taiwan. "We cannot stand by while the Communist Party continues to threaten Taiwan - and democracy itself ", She wrote.

After 25 years the Speaker of the American House of Representatives in Taiwan. Nancy Pelosi (Photo: Reuters)

The tensions are at their peak, the statements are harsh and the panic is growing stronger - but despite the severe verbal threats and military activity in the region, the commentators agree that China is not currently interested in a military confrontation with the United States, and that President Xi Jinping is doing this mainly as a show of strength in front of his party and the Chinese people, as he prepares to ask from Congress in November to continue Cohen in office indefinitely.

According to Major General (Retd.) Ambassador Matan Vilnai, president of the UIBE-ISRAEL branch, the Chinese International University in Israel, "There is no doubt that at the moment Chinese television is broadcasting films about the strength of the army, films about Chinese surface-to-surface missiles and so on. The goal is to make it clear to the Chinese people Taiwan is part of China and belongs to it."

In his opinion, a military confrontation between China and the United States is not expected, at least for now.

"China is the second most powerful power after the United States," he told Walla.

"The Chinese use this fact very wisely, they do not threaten unacceptable threats" that would deteriorate the situation to a point of no return.

"The real danger," he emphasized, "is an accident or a misunderstanding by the lower-ranking military forces that could develop in dangerous directions."

Villenai adds that in practice, there is currently a cold war between China and the United States in the Pacific Ocean, and Taiwan is at its epicenter.

"Since the real risk in such a situation is a misunderstanding that could escalate, President Biden, who understands this, had a personal conversation with President Xi and made it clear to him that he does not control Pelosi. It is difficult for the Chinese to understand that Biden does not control his politicians, so Biden took the trouble to explain to Xi that the visit does not affect policy the American towards China".

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Taipei residents practiced going down to shelters (Photo: Reuters)

According to Villenai, both sides understand very well that "if a third world war breaks out, the Straits of Taiwan and the South China Sea are the area where it will happen", and neither side has any interest in that.

He also rules out the possibility of a "staged accident" by one of the armies in order to escalate the situation - an outdated tactic, according to him.

In addition, despite diplomatic and strategic tensions and opposing views on Taiwan's sovereignty, China-Taiwan economic relations are extremely strong, Villenai added.

This is another layer that further complicates the already complex relations of the two countries.

An American aircraft carrier in the waters of the Taiwan Strait (Photo: Reuters)

Vilnai also refers to Israel in the discussion.

According to him, "Israel has no reason to interfere in a relationship that does not concern it. Israel has an office of interests in Taiwan, which diplomatically is even lower than a consulate. In addition, there is no large Jewish community on the island and Israel has 'nothing to look for there.'"

China has economic interests in Israel, it hopes to learn from Israel about its ability to innovate, something which the Chinese economy has difficulty implementing, and which is very preoccupying to it, especially against the background of the fact that President Xi has set the country a goal of becoming the greatest power in the world in all respects by 2049 - the year in which the centenary of its rise will be celebrated of Mao Zedong's Communist Party to power.

So far, China's response to Pelosi's visit has included several restrictions on Taiwanese exports to China and a dramatic midnight summons of the US ambassador to the Chinese Foreign Ministry for reprimand.

Pelosi's visit may herald a period of greater tension in relations between China and the United States, but the possibility of a military confrontation is not yet on the table.

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