If sunflower oil is experiencing a shortage in supermarkets due to the conflict in Ukraine, which was the world's largest exporter before its invasion by Russia, tensions are also weighing on the olive oil sector.
Olive growers have been facing severe droughts in western Europe for several months.
According to the European Commission, about half of the territory of the European Union is currently facing a risk of drought due to the prolonged lack of precipitation, posing the risk of a probable drop in crop yields.
After Italy and Spain, it is now French olive growers who have to deal with particularly hot and dry weather.
Read alsoDrought: Italy declares a state of emergency in five northern regions
A particularly early and long drought
In the PACA region, where two thirds of French olive oil are produced, the newsletter for the June-July period from Afidol (Association française interprofessionnelle de l'olive) notes a "
2022 season marked by records of heat and precocity
", with waves which "
succeeded each other and had a frequent negative effect on production.
The document specifies that “
the drought is worsening in the SOUTH region and
[that]
the lack of winter rains has weakened certain local resources.
»
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What left many professionals in the sector pessimistic.
" We
expect a harvest halved this year
," said Laurent Bélorgey, president of the interprofessional olive oil association France Olive, worried about the next harvest in October.
Although the olive tree is a particularly heat-resistant tree, the professional emphasizes above all the impact of the lack of rain.
“
We've had exceptionally hot years before, but this is different.
The drought occurred at the time of flowering and it drags on, yet only 20% of our crops are irrigated in France.
This is the first time we've seen this happen on this scale.
“Despite regional disparities, all departments are affected by the phenomenon according to him, which will inevitably have an impact on prices.
Read alsoSunflower oil shortage: what alternatives for consumers?
"
In addition to inflation, olive trees have been victims of global warming for ten years, which mechanically increases the price of olive oil
", specified in our columns on April 30 last Bruno Parmentier, economist in agriculture and food issues.
A shortage of olive oil in sight?
If Laurent Bélorgey fears that the producers will run out of oil to supply the markets, Olivier Nasles, president of the Union of AOP oil producers in Provence, wants to be less alarmist, considering that it is still too early to make such predictions.
“
We only weigh 4% of the olive oil consumed in France, the largest exporter remains Spain.
Although they are also struggling, I expect inventory to be able to offset poor harvests to fill store shelves this year.
We won't know until December if our results were so disastrous.
»
Read alsoFrom food to transport, how inflation weighs on the purchasing power of the French on a daily basis
The two professionals agree, however, that a price increase of around 15 to 30% is to be expected.
Nothing to worry about in terms of sales, however, according to Olivier Nasles.
“
Our consumers are very insensitive to variations in food prices.
At 28 euros per liter of French olive oil, it is mainly the wealthy classes who get it, the others fall back on Spanish oil, three times cheaper.
It is possible that we take one or two euros per litre, but that is not what will impact demand.
For Spanish oil, Laurent Bélorgey anticipates a more pronounced price increase for consumers.
In addition to droughts and poor harvests, this price increase is also due to several external factors, including the war in Ukraine.
“
We also had to take into account the increase in the cost of petrol for transport, electricity for the mills and gas for fertilizers,
specifies the president of the union
.
We also had to pass on the increase in the price of so-called dry materials, such as the glass that makes up our containers, which increased by 30%.
This is due to shortages as glassworks in France have closed.
Some were also in Ukraine.
Finally, in addition to the dry weather, questions remain to explain these poor harvests.
"
We haven't even had the usual third of water for the past six months, but even the olive trees that haven't run out of water haven't had good harvests
.
We are still trying to understand.
»
