Senior security officials to the cabinet: Without an agreement with Lebanon, an escalation may occur with Hezbollah

Chief of Staff Kochavi and other senior IDF officials who participated in the meeting of the political-security cabinet told the ministers that if an agreement is not reached with Lebanon on the maritime border, this could flare up for several days of battle, according to a source privy to the contents of the meeting.

The ministers received an overview of the state of the negotiations and the proposals submitted to Israel

Barak Ravid

03/08/2022

Wednesday, August 03, 2022, 7:26 p.m. Updated: 7:37 p.m.

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In the video: Prime Minister Lapid and Defense Minister Gantz on a tour of the Northern Command (photo: L.A.M.)

Senior officials of the security establishment who participated in the meeting of the political-security cabinet today told the ministers that if an agreement is not reached with Lebanon on the maritime border, this could lead to a security escalation on the northern border and even to several days of combat, according to a source privy to the contents of the meeting.

I want a victory picture.

Nasrallah (photo: official website, Al Maner)

why is it important

• The dispute over the maritime border focuses on an area of ​​several hundred square kilometers in the eastern Mediterranean sea opposite the coasts of Israel and Lebanon. The profits from the production of natural gas from potential reservoirs in the area of ​​dispute may reach billions of dollars.

• Against the background of the fact that in September gas production will begin from the Harish reservoir, which is located south of the disputed area, Hezbollah General Hassan Nasrallah began to threaten war if Lebanon's rights were not preserved.

• The Biden administration, which mediates between the parties, as well as the government of Israel and the government of Lebanon, are interested in reaching an agreement as soon as possible to avoid escalation.

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To the full article

The Prime Minister with the Shark rig in the background, last month (photo: official website, Amos Ben Gershom/L.A.M.)

Behind the Scenes

• During the cabinet meeting, the ministers were presented with the status of the negotiations with Lebanon as well as the details of the Lebanese proposal, the American proposal and the Israeli position. Another issue that came up in the discussion was Hezbollah's provocations against the Shark rig and the fear of further actions by the organization, according to a source familiar with the contents of the meeting.

• The Cabinet discussion was attended by Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi, Head of the National Security Agency Aharon Haliva and Head of the Research Division at the National Security Agency Amit Sa'ar. In addition, the head of the Mossad Dadi Barnea, the head of the Shin Bet Ronan Bar and National Security Advisor Eyal Hulta also participated.

• A source familiar with the details of the discussion said that there was unanimity among the security establishment in the discussion that the alternative to the agreement could be escalation and that in such a situation there is a high probability of miscalculation on the part of Hezbollah which could lead to several days of fighting in the north.

• The source added that the Chief of Staff and several other senior officials in the security system who participated in the discussion said that Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is interested in using the agreement as an image of victory in the Lebanese domestic arena and if at the end of the process the result is that there is no agreement and Israel produces gas and Lebanon does not produce gas - the level of explosiveness will be high.

what are they saying

• IDF spokesman Ran Kochav said: "The IDF does not refer to what is said in closed and classified discussions."

Interested in getting an agreement by September.

Hochstein (Photo: AP)

What next

• The American envoy Amos Hochstein who mediates between the parties is expected to return to the region in about two weeks for another round of talks with the parties.

  Hochstein wants to reach an agreement by September, but senior Israeli officials point out that the chances of this are not high.

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Tags

• Hezbollah

• Lebanon

• The political-security cabinet