Far outside the boundaries of media coverage, and outside the focus of attention of policy makers, who are preoccupied with Iran, a nuclear threat is developing closer to Israel's borders: a series of former senior officials in the security establishment who spoke with Israel Hayom, warn of the consequences of an unusual political alliance In the degree of closeness it expresses - between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. According to the officials, in the event of an Iranian nuclear hack, Israel must prepare for a scenario in which Pakistan will transfer nuclear warheads to Saudi Arabia, or provide it with the knowledge and means necessary to create its own nuclear capability in a short time.
The Saudi nuclear capability does not threaten Israel like that of Iran, but a scenario in which Saudi Arabia becomes a nuclear power carries significant dangers: first, it is an undemocratic country with the presence of elements with Islamist worldviews, and as such - its government may suddenly change and become hostile to Israel, As happened in the past in other countries in the region, such as Iran.
Also, there is no guarantee that the interests of the current government in Riyadh will forever remain aligned with those of Israel.
The third danger stems from the assumption that Saudi nuclearization will spur other countries in the region, such as Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, to obtain a similar capability of their own, and the Middle East will become a nuclear gunpowder keg.
A nuclear facility in Iran, photo: E.P.I
there is plenty to discover
Dr. Yoel Gozhansky, who is responsible for the Iran case at the former National Security Council, published an article in 2019 entitled: "Relationships between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan - the greater of the hidden than the visible". This is the only academic article written in Hebrew in recent years on the relationship between the two countries, And this fact indicates the lack of attention to the issue in Israel. Gozhansky explains that the ties between the countries are extremely close, so much so that they were previously described as one of the closest relationships between countries in the world.
At the base of this strategic alliance is a barter deal: Saudi Arabia finds in Pakistan - the second most populous Muslim country in the world, with 183 million Sunni Muslims - a counterweight to the influence of Shiite Iran.
In return, impoverished Pakistan benefits from massive Saudi economic aid, and is given a central role in safeguarding Islam's holy places and political influence in the Gulf.
The Saudi-funded development of the "Islamic bomb" on Pakistani soil allowed the Saudis to escape the international pressure of promoting a military nuclear program, and for the Pakistanis to gain deterrence against their great rival - India.
Pakistani protesters burn the Indian flag following the tensions in Kashmir, photo: AFP
A complex and deep relationship
"The relationship between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is a significant strategic issue, which in Israel is not well known in depth," said Dr. Guzhansky in a conversation with "Israel Hayom". the years to stand by Saudi Arabia in the face of external threats.
"Many Pakistanis work and live in Saudi Arabia, and the royal family has invested in the promotion of religion in Pakistan. The armies train together, and senior officials of the Pakistani army who retire are invited to Saudi Arabia, where they receive prestigious positions and live in luxury. It is a complex relationship, which has had some ups and downs - but it remains deep even today.
"On this background, in the scenario of an Iranian hacking of the bomb, placing Pakistani nuclear weapons in Saudi Arabia or transferring nuclear warheads to Saudi Arabia are reasonable scenarios," Guzhansky estimates.
"These are not the only options, but Israel must prepare for them. We only look at Iran, and we miss significant things. Despite the political rapprochement, we must understand that not all of Saudi Arabia's interests coincide with ours, and therefore the Saudi preoccupation with nuclear weapons should worry Israel."
Dr. Yoel Gozhansky, photo: Yossi Zeliger
Not for heaven's sake
Brigadier General (Res.) Prof. Jacob Nagel, who served as head of the National Security Council, confirms Guzhansky's words: "Saudi Arabia probably did not invest in the Pakistani nuclear program for heaven's sake. What the Saudis can do, if they want, is to pick up the phone to the Pakistanis And tell them: remember our generous financial help? It's time to pay back."
However, while this option is probably available to the Saudis, they may prefer to use the Pakistanis to achieve "threshold state" status.
"In light of the state of the discussions between the superpowers and Iran on returning to the nuclear agreement, which will undoubtedly bring Iran to the status of a threshold state, an extensive nuclear arms race is expected to arise in the Middle East. In such a situation, Saudi Arabia will be among the first countries to feel threatened by Iran, and it will not want to be left behind.
"The range of possibilities for the Saudis vis-a-vis Pakistan is wide. They may prefer to receive technological knowledge from them, they may want means of enriching uranium, they may also ask Pakistan for a complete nuclear bomb. In the end, all of this depends on the will of the Saudis - and it will be difficult for the Pakistanis to refuse," Nagel warns .
"Pakistan is one of the few countries in the world that has not signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and this fact will make it easier for it to comply with the Saudis, even if it is not done publicly.
"In Saudi Arabia there is frustration towards the US, which pressures Riyadh not to move forward with an independent nuclear program, while Iran, which repeatedly breaks its international commitments on the subject, promotes its program under the auspices of the nuclear agreements."
Prof. Jacob Nagel, photo: Gideon Markovich
Regional dominoes
Brigadier General (Res.) Amir Avivi, who served as head of the Chief of Staff's Office, told "Israel Today": "Once Iran becomes a nuclear state, a regional domino will be created that will lead to the nuclearization efforts of Egypt, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, among others. These are countries that maintain Peaceful relations with Israel, but our relations with them have not always been normal, and not all of the regimes have been stable over the years. We live in an explosive region of the world, and if it goes nuclear, it will have far-reaching consequences."
Major General (Res.) Ya'akov Amidror, who served as head of the National Assembly, believes that even if Saudi Arabia receives aid from Pakistan, it still faces significant challenges. "The rumors of a nuclear agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have existed in the West for decades," he said in a conversation with "Israel Hayom" , "But there is no proof that Pakistan will supply nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia."
According to him, "It is also important to understand that the bomb itself is not the whole story. If there is an agreement between the countries, it does not refer to missiles that can carry nuclear weapons, but only to bombs. The challenge of mounting a nuclear warhead on a missile is not simple, and it will not be easy to create a connection between the missile and the warhead An explosive that was not matched to each other. This is a considerable risk, which it is not certain that the Saudis will want to take on. In any case, this is not a project that can be carried out in a short time, even if the rumors come true."
Yaakov Amidror, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
"The Complete Package"
In contrast to Amidror, Brigadier General (ret.) Yossi Kupervaser, the former head of the research division at the AMN, believes that the Pakistanis may provide the Saudis with the "complete package" - warheads that are already mounted on missiles and ready for use.
However, this is one possible scenario among several, and there is an intelligence gap regarding the details of the agreement between the countries.
"The Pakistanis have an obligation to assist the Saudis in the nuclear field, but it is not possible to know for sure how this obligation will manifest itself.
"On the one hand, they are economically dependent on the Saudis, but on the other hand, the spread of nuclear weapons could expose them to international sanctions. The closer Iran gets to the bomb, the more demanding the Saudis will be, and the easier it will be for the Pakistanis to meet them. In the face of a nuclear Iran, the likelihood of Saudi Arabia receiving ready-made atomic bombs from Pakistan will increase. And maybe even a whole set of ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads."
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