U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi (also translated as Pelosi or Polosi) appeared in Taiwan on the evening of August 2 in a pink suit and met with Tsai Ing-wen and other ruling elites intensively the next day. Taiwanese society was intoxicated by the United States In the happy atmosphere of the third-largest figure in the political arena, "Democratic Support".
However, following Pelosi's footsteps in arriving in Taiwan, the People's Liberation Army announced two successive waves of exercises in the name of "military operations". In an exclusive interview with Hong Kong 01, strategist Zhang Jing pointed out that the actions of the People's Liberation Army must have shocked Taiwanese society and created psychological pressure, and it was clear that he wanted to "beat the dog to show the owner."
The People's Liberation Army reserves the space for "turning from training to war"
Compared with the use of words such as "combat readiness patrol" and "actual combat drills" in previous announcements of the PLA's military operations against Taiwan, the use of "joint military operations" and "important military training operations" this time does not mean the difference between the words Do you want to launch more aggressive military actions against Taiwan?
Zhang Jing, a researcher at Taiwan's Chinese Strategic Society and a former captain of the Navy's central warship, explained to the "Hong Kong 01" reporter that "military maneuver" includes "military operations" and "military exercise." ), the People’s Liberation Army uses “military operations” with a wider coverage to leave room for “transition from training to war” at any time.
Taiwanese military expert Zhang Jing analyzed the PLA's drills after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, believing that this is the result of "Washington does the trick and Taipei pays the bill."
(Photo by Zhang Junkai)
This understanding also involves the "joint military operation" carried out by the Eastern Theater Command since the evening of August 2, why it only stated the start time but not the end time.
Zhang Jing said that although he does not believe that today's situation has reached the point where the mainland needs to use Article 8 of the Anti-Secession Law to "adopt non-peaceful means", the mainland still needs to retain the flexibility to "turn from training to war".
As for the drill in the Eastern Theater Command, will it affect Pelosi's departure route from Taiwan on the afternoon of the 3rd?
Zhang Jing believes that there will be no impact, because the drills that have been carried out in the Eastern Theater Command have not set up a no-navigation zone, nor have they set up a training zone around Taiwan. Just started.
Cross-strait discord is effective for Taiwan's military intimidation
"Hong Kong 01" once made an in-depth analysis of the "important military training operations" and "live fire" that the People's Liberation Army will launch on the 4th. Judging from the latitude and longitude coordinates provided by the mainland's official media Xinhua News Agency, among the six blocks, the northern, The northeast and southwest blocks will touch Taiwan's territorial waters or internal waters.
Some people believe that the six training areas will cause Taiwan to be effectively blocked for three days, and even affect the "lifeline" channel of energy transportation.
In addition, according to Taiwan's state media Central News Agency, Nathan Ruser, a researcher at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, believes that the PLA's plan to conduct live-fire military exercises in waters over which Taiwan holds sovereignty is the largest in the past few decades. The provocative move is in line with what the United Nations defines as an act of "state aggression".
Zhang Jing first refuted Luther's statement, pointing out that there is no such thing as "national aggression" in terms of law as Luther said.
He emphasized that at present, Taiwan's coastal patrol agencies stationed in the outer islands of Jinma are enforcing the law in the inland waters set up by the Chinese mainland, and even arresting the mainland fishermen who cross the border, clearly exercising the public power of law enforcement, and the mainland has never protested.
Even in the period of positive interaction between the two sides of the strait, through the "Cross-Strait Joint Anti-crime Agreement", the mainland coast police also cooperated with the Taiwan side in law enforcement in its inland waters.
Zhang Jing reminded that the outer islands of Jinma often carry out live artillery firing drills into the sea, and it is common to conduct live ammunition shooting in the inland waters designated by the mainland. Only nearer and never farther, but Beijing has never made a fuss about it.
The nature of cross-strait relations is very different from normal international relations, and international laws are not fully applicable in terms of laws and regulations. Therefore, many scholars make random speeches without understanding the actual situation of cross-strait interactions, which often leads to greater misunderstandings.
Then Zhang Jing further put forward his personal point of view, pointing out that the main purpose of the PLA's approach is to create an imaginary space for Taiwan to explain.
He believes that, different from the "cognitive warfare" interpreted by Taiwan's Green Camp Xinkou, the real "cognitive warfare" is what mainland China imposes on Taiwan: "Actual actions 123, piercing affiliates 456, villagers' imagination 789" , that is, to create an atmosphere to make people believe that something can happen, and then take action to be effective.
"It's like a house has been rumored to be haunted. At this time, if you say that I saw a white shadow drifting past, then some people will believe that there are ghosts." People are uneasy. At this time, the mainland's military intimidation against Taiwan has the best effect.
Taiwan's psychological defense line is fragile, everything is a soldier
As for whether it will impact Taiwan's transportation channels and civil aviation routes, Zhang Jing explained that according to the training area map released by the People's Liberation Army, it can be found that Kaohsiung Port's external shipping is not covered by the entire training area, and traffic can still pass through Kaohsiung; Yong'an's liquefied petroleum receiving port, as well as Chiayi Budai or Yunlin Mailiao, Taichung Port, Taipei Port, Keelung Port, Suao Port, etc., are not really blocked by the training area.
Even Keelung Port still has enough width in the two training areas, which is also the densest waterway.
Regarding the established civil aviation routes, Zhang Jing believes that the flight safety briefing will make temporary adjustments, and it is unlikely that everything will not move.
If the PLA's six-block exercise did not have a substantial military impact on Taiwan, wouldn't these military actions have no effect at all?
Zhang Jing added that there will still be a shock to Taiwanese society, and the psychological pressure will definitely be felt.
"It's not a geographical distance, but a psychological distance." If you feel very close, "the end of the world is just a short distance away." If you feel far away, "the end of the world is just a short distance away." Taiwanese people will feel unhappy and fearful psychologically during the performance or the Zhu Rihe military parade.
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Zhang Jing said that everything "dormant and then reborn", if Taiwan's people are uneasy, it will naturally become a breeding ground for all kinds of rumors.
Previously, the cover title of the British media "The Economist" called Taiwan "the most dangerous place in the world". In addition, all parties contributed to the flames, and the DPP worked very hard to "anti-China Taiwan". At this time, the psychological defense line of Taiwanese folks was especially Fragile.
He criticized that the DPP's "biggest achievement" for six years in power is that it has truly turned Taiwan into the most dangerous place in the world. Once there is any trouble, the society will be filled with an atmosphere of turmoil and war.
However, compared with the panic that has occurred in the past Taiwan Strait crises, the current Taiwanese society is showing a scene of "horse running and dancing", perhaps still immersed in a state of joy and excitement, at least on the surface, it is difficult to see sense of crisis.
Zhang Jing gave his observation that the current Taiwan society is actually quite bipolar. I just found out that "I thought I would say a few words behind the keyboard, but I didn't expect this kind of result."
Taiwan lacks subjectivity and can only be at the mercy of others
After Pelosi landed in Taipei, Taiwan was immediately faced with the situation of "something in the surrounding area". Another key issue worth clarifying is whether the Taiwan Air Force will be launched if the PLA conducts military exercises in Taiwan's airspace or Air Defense Identification Zone. Counteract, or even drive away?
If the Taiwan government doesn't do anything, wouldn't it also be seen by others?
US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi (left) met with Tsai Ing-wen (right) at the Taiwan Presidential Palace on August 3. Pelosi said that the delegation came to Taiwan this time to make it clear to the outside world, "We will never turn our back on Taiwan. Promise of".
(Taiwan Presidential Office)
Zhang Jing believes that it is of course possible for the two armies to meet, but Beijing has made it clear in advance that they will not enter.
If the Taiwanese rulers really have the ability, they will also go to the mainland to set up a training area along the coast of Zhejiang to see how the mainland will react.
It is precisely because today that Taiwan wants to pursue "Taiwan independence", which leads to tying the hands and feet of its own army. Since the leaders' inner thoughts of "Taiwan independence" such as the "two states theory", Taiwan's military has been continuously retreating.
Summarizing the real situation that Taiwan faced before and after Pelosi's visit, Zhang Jing judged that the keynote of Beijing's actions against Taiwan was "literally attacking the United States and military intimidation against Taiwan".
As long as you carefully read the speeches made by officials of the Beijing diplomatic system or the official media of the Party, you will find that 95% are directed at the United States, and only 5% are directed at Taiwan.
This situation reveals one of Taiwan's great sorrows, that is, Beijing does not take Taipei seriously, and believes that Taipei is a pawn at the mercy of the entire strategic chess game.
Zhang Jing, for example, reported that Taiwan's representative to the United States, Xiao Meiqin, tried to withdraw the invitation under pressure from the US executive, but after Pelosi's strong questioning, he could only retreat and give up his position, proving that Taipei is in the Passive and helpless in the overall situation.
He lamented that Beijing sees that Taipei has no subjectivity at all, and that Taiwan's biggest dilemma today is that it lacks subjectivity in international politics, is at the mercy of others, and is naturally despised and neglected by others.
In Zhang Jing's view, Beijing's "fighting against Taiwan" is the result of "Washington's mischief, and Taipei paying the bill", and "showing the dog to the owner."
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