Israel chose to open Operation "Dawn" with an advantage:
instead of waiting for the move of the Islamic Jihad, the IDF attacked first and killed the organization's military commander in the northern Gaza Strip, Taysir Jabari.
It seems that the approval for the assassination was already given earlier this week, and he waited for a suitable operational opportunity.
At this time, the IDF maintained a strong defense in the Gaza Strip so as not to absorb casualties, and at the same time amassed forces in the Gaza Strip and dispersed the elements of the defense - mainly Iron Dome batteries - also in other areas (including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem), in order to prepare for the possibility that the elimination would lead to a wide escalation.
The choice of Jabari was not accidental.
He was one of the extreme markers in the Gaza Strip, and led a militant line similar to his predecessor in the position, Bahaa Abu Al-Ata, who was eliminated in November 2019 in the "Black Belt" operation.
Even then, the elimination turned into several days of fighting, which included massive rocket fire from the Strip - until a ceasefire was reached.
The IDF attacked military positions of the Islamic Jihad // Photo: IDF spokesman
The main achievement in the "Black Belt" was keeping Hamas out of the escalation cycle, and focusing the activity on the Islamic Jihad.
It was also Israel's current, and therefore yesterday's activity focused on the Islamic Jihad;
After the assassination of Jabari, several facilities and launchers of the organization were also damaged, but the IDF was careful not to harm Hamas and even sent clear messages to it that if its men did not join the fighting, Israel would be careful not to harm it in the future.
Israel hopes that Hamas will indeed refrain from activity.
In recent days, he has been careful to convey messages that he has no interest in escalation and even acted in an attempt (that failed) to restrain Islamic Jihad, but yesterday the organization's spokesmen said that he would participate in the response to the assassination.
If this happens, the round of fighting that started yesterday may be even longer and more violent, and may also include Hamas targets - from infrastructure facilities and reinforcements to the headquarters and heads of the organization.
A building that was bombed in Gaza, photo: Arab Networks
The 15 months that have passed since the "Guardian of the Walls" operation have been the quietest in the south in recent years, but the past week marked a change in this trend.
It began with the arrest of Bassem Saadi, the commander of Islamic Jihad who was captured on Monday in Jenin, in what was the culmination of a wave of arrests that has been underway in northern Samaria in recent months.
The organization's activists in the West Bank put pressure on the headquarters in Gaza to respond to the arrest, also in an attempt to create a new deterrence equation that would prevent the IDF from continuing its activities in the West Bank. This led to the decision - under Jabari's command - to search for an Israeli target, and hit it with an anti-tank missile by sniping.
This was also the reason for the high alert and the partial closure that was imposed in the last few days on the envelope sector, in an attempt to avoid casualties.
At the same time, as mentioned, the IDF began to prepare for the attack. The plans were already approved on Thursday, and were confirmed again yesterday during Defense Minister Benny Gantz's visit to the Southern Command. They included the opening move, but also the follow-up moves, which will largely depend on the nature and scope of the IDF's response Islamic Jihad, and as mentioned also in the question of Hamas joining the fighting.
The official who was eliminated according to Palestinian sources,
At the current stage, the IDF is focusing its activities on the rocket and missile launcher squads, but the sequel is expected to be much more violent. In order to deter the forces in the Gaza Strip from an extensive response (or with the aim of limiting it), photographs of the deployment of the forces at the border of the Gaza Strip were published yesterday, and it was also announced that they were ready to expand The operation - including the mobilization of reserves. The message to Gaza is clear: Israel is not afraid of escalation, and is preparing for it.
prevent immediate achievements
The ball is now in Gaza's court.
The nature of the response that will come - and will come - will determine the nature of the IDF's response, and God forbid. At the same time as this expected scenario, for which the IDF has already been prepared and its plans approved, Israel must observe seven other key things:
The first is a strong defense in the envelope, which will prevent the terrorist organizations from immediate gains.
The Gaza Division managed to do this in "Guardian of the Walls", and this is its current mission even now.
The second is to convey sharp and clear messages to the public in wider circles, to prevent complacency that could lead to unnecessary casualties on the home front.
Discipline is also required from the public, which it does not always excel at, and it is necessary as part of the war effort.
The third is a permanent view to the northern sector.
In Syria and Lebanon there are quite a few Palestinians, and quite a few weapons.
In "Guardian of the Walls" (and also after it) rockets were launched from Lebanon to Israel, and this may happen again now, certainly against the background of the establishment of an organized array of the military arm of Hamas in the refugee camps in Lebanon.
Israel needs to make it clear to the Lebanese government and also to Hezbollah that any such attack will lead to a severe response, even if it means a multi-sectoral escalation.
IDF attack against GAP targets, photo: IDF spokesperson
The fourth is a constant view of the inner arena.
The cities involved are indeed quiet, but an escalation in the Gaza Strip - certainly if there are casualties on its side - could set the Israeli street on fire again.
In order to prevent this, regular dialogue with the leaderships in the local authorities is required, but also advance security preparation, especially by the police.
The fifth is an international campaign - political and informative - that will accompany the campaign and give Israel legitimacy for its management in the future as well.
The world will surely perceive Israel as "the one who started it", and she must make it clear that she acted in self-defense against those who rose to harm her.
At the same time, it must use every possible channel and way - mainly through Egypt, the United States and Qatar - in an attempt to influence Hamas to shorten the duration of the escalation and calm the spirits.
The sixth is the provision of assistance to the residents of Otef - financially and mentally - as those who mainly bear the burden in the last days, and will bear it during the days of fighting as well.
This is the government's first role, and it must be seen and done as part of national resilience.
Leave politics aside
The seventh is leaving politics aside.
Too much political slime has been poured into the public networks in recent days.
Some of the more established media also resorted to gross irresponsibility.
All politicians are now expected to put the election campaign aside for a moment, and remember that there are things that are beyond politics - life is at the forefront.
Synchronization of all these will ensure better results for the fighting round, which is expected to last a few days at least.
One can hope that during your time the IDF and the Shin Bet will also have luck, which will allow damage to quality targets in Gaza and prevent unnecessary damage to innocents.
Operation "Dawn" was indeed imposed on Israel - which was looking for ways to preserve calm in the south and not escalate the situation - but from the moment it was launched, it must be used not only to significantly damage the terrorist organizations, their infrastructures, activists and military forces, but also to once again strengthen the deterrence, and guarantee peace for a long time to the residents of the south.
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