Opinion Concern in Israel Beitenu: Lieberman's base may be dispersed Israel today

Many anxieties and concerns accompany every politician during an election campaign.

Many strategies, options and political horror scenarios prevent sleep from the eyes of a party leader who is immersed in a campaign.

But there is one word that automatically sends shivers down the back of the contending politician and makes him exclaim while sleeping, as well as while awake, and hovers over him like a black cloud.

This word is "crunchy", or "crispy", in its various inflections.

The one who wakes up these days covered in a cold sweat from yet another nightmare about crispness is Finance Minister and Chairman of Israel Beytenu Avigdor Lieberman. At the surface of the polls, Lieberman appears stable and with a consistent breathing space above the blocking percentage, but below the waterline, Lieberman, his opponents and political partners are already recognizing that something The Liberman base has become more fluid, more dangerous and very, very brittle. 

This is the war, dumbass

This was not supposed to happen to Lieberman.

For him everything was paradise.

At this stage in the campaign, the Minister of Finance was supposed to sleep peacefully in his house in the dot, with his status as a Libra guaranteed.

The worried eyes in the left bloc squinted with concern in the direction of Meretz, and perhaps the Labor Party.

Suddenly it becomes clear that the candidate for falling below the blocking percentage may actually be Lieberman.

Since he torpedoed the formation of the government in the first round and moved to the anti-Netanyahu bloc, Lieberman has worked hard to establish a stable political structure.

He replaced hatred of Arabs with hatred of Haredim.

From "There is no loyalty, there is no citizenship" and "Only Lieberman understands Arabic", our home in Israel went to hunting ultra-Orthodox and hate videos against the new ultra-Orthodox enemy, which helped the party recruit new voters and Lieberman himself to gain an upgraded media status.

In the past he was presented as a dictator whose supporters shout "Hail Lieberman", today he is presented as a purring kitten in response to the media's petting in the studios.

Then came the war in Ukraine.

Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman.

For him, everything was paradise, photo: Oren Ben Hakon

Since Putin's invasion of Zelensky's territory, Lieberman has been vague and condescending toward Putin.

He certainly does not adopt the aggressive tone that characterizes Lapid's condemnations.

When it comes to the leader of a party addressing the Russian-speaking public, this ambiguity has weight, and it seems Lieberman is trying to walk between the drops and distance himself from the war.

However, the audience of Russian speakers and former Soviet Union supporters who support Israel at home is not heterogeneous. It includes immigrants from Russia and Ukraine, who naturally have a distinct, and perhaps different, sentiment regarding the conflict in their countries of origin, and they expect a position.

Lieberman has developed the ability to connect with the sentiment of our brothers from the countries of the former Soviet Union, to elaborate both on the national sentiment that exists in this community and on the frustration with the conduct of the religious establishment in a society that is considered far from religion, and sometimes even disgusts it. In the Black Sea, without prior warning, they became what might determine their political fate - instead of opening shops on Shabbat in Ashdod or transferring funds to a Beit Midrash in Beitar Illit.

In the political system as well as in Israel, polls are already identifying the abandonment of former Soviet immigrants towards the Likud and there is a future. Lieberman has gone on the defensive, and instead of trying to increase his power - he is fighting to preserve the existing and eradicate the fractious.

And that's the economy too, stupid

Another trouble befell Lieberman this week, not from the geopolitical field but rather from the local socio-political field, with the announcement by Eli Avidar, a former honorary member of Israel Beitenu, that he founded the "Free Israel" party.

Lieberman did not need the establishment of the new party to despise Avidar, who committed the ultimate sin when he did not cancel himself and remove the total power of the chairman of Israel Beitenu. As long as he channeled the energy, rage and rebellion in the Balfour demonstrations - he

There was a problem, although even then he began to arouse suspicion.

It is not only too active and loud, it not only stands out too much, it is also not completely easy to control.

He has too independent a personality for the authoritarian leader parties that have taken over Israeli politics, and even more so in relation to the kind of party that Lieberman holds in a clenched fist.

Now to Lieberman's suspicion and resentment towards Eli Avidar, who is prominent and too free, is added the fear that "Free Israel" will be the catalyst for Lieberman's crash below the blocking percentage.

Avidar mobilized in his favor an amount estimated at tens of thousands of voters.

In a night of Balfour protesters, the Black Flags and Cream Minister are mixed with vaccine opponents and theorists with theses about the hand that shook the cradle of the Corona epidemic.

In one of the most puzzling scenes produced by the change government, Avidar agreed to get vaccinated prior to his appointment as minister of affairs for nothing and nothing, this after he passionately argued against the corona vaccines, which in his opinion were yet another conspiracy by Netanyahu.

In the field, Avidar's surrender and reaching out to the syringe was forgotten, and even if his party is not close to the percentage of the blockade - the two mandates that do support it are dramatic and were stolen from the left bloc, especially from Israel Beitno.

Eli Avidar

He mobilized in his favor an amount estimated at tens of thousands of voters, photo: Oren Ben Hakon

And to these two trends is merged the difficult economic reality.

The government's supporters spread flyers over our heads with its economic achievements: from the reduction of the deficit to the decrease in unemployment rates.

It does not make an impression on the Israelis that their money buys much less in the grocery store and the greengrocer, and that a visit to one of the marketing chains ends in shock for them.

This government, as a matter of policy, abandoned the last car in the train to its fate.

This reality should not permeate the public like a message board, because they live it every day, without a glass of Chablis wine in hand.

This is how Lieberman found himself caught between Putin and Eli Avidar, and he must respond.

And the crispier it is, the greater its ambition to transmit a more powerful message.

This is the reason for the Finance Minister's recent statements that he considers himself a legitimate and worthy candidate for Prime Minister;

A position that, thanks to Bennett, the job requirements were reduced to pass the blocking percentage.

Maybe if we burn my image

As prime minister, what was steel yesterday and turned brittle, will become steel again tomorrow.

It is too early to eulogize Lieberman, who has demonstrated the ability to reinvent himself through the transfer of hatred and animosity from sector to sector.

And yet, we are now predicting a new Lieberman - closer to the percentage of approval than to the prime minister's office.

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