Putin meets Erdogan in Sochi: Turkish head of state needs green light for Syria intervention

Created: 08/05/2022, 15:25

By: Bedrettin Bölükbasi

The meeting between Turkish President Erdogan and Kremlin chief Putin in Sochi is said to be about Syria as well as Ukraine.

(Archive image) © Mustafa Kamaci / TURKISH PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE / AFP

Russia's ruler Putin receives his Turkish counterpart Erdogan in Sochi.

The main concern is a new military operation in Syria.

Munich - Relations between Turkey and Russia are similar to relations between Turkey and Western countries - not always smooth, but often full of disagreements.

Sometimes the two countries enjoy extremely close cooperation, sometimes they represent completely opposite military positions and thwart each other's plans.

The fact that relations are progressing in a very good atmosphere despite all the difficulties is mainly due to two people: the Russian ruler Vladimir Putin and the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The "friendship" between the two heads of state keeps Russian-Turkish cooperation alive.

Now the two are meeting in Sochi.

It should also be about Ukraine.

But another topic is particularly close to Erdogan's heart: the situation in Syria.

Putin-Erdogan meeting: Syria a hot topic on the agenda in Sochi

The civil war in Syria, which has been going on for around 11 years, fell into even greater oblivion after the start of the Ukraine war.

For Turkey, however, it is still a central issue, because Ankara feels threatened by the presence of the predominantly Kurdish YPG units in northern Syria on the border with Turkey.

Ankara describes the YPG as the Syrian offshoot of the banned PKK.

Turkey has already intervened militarily in northern Syria three times.

• "Shield of the Euphrates", 2017: In the triangle between the cities of Azaz, Jarablus and Al-Bab in the west of the Euphrates.

  This offensive was directed against both the IS terrorist militia and the YPG and was intended to support allied rebels in the area.

• "Olive Branch", 2018: Against the YPG in the Afrin region of north-western Syria

• "Fountain of Peace", 2019: Against the YPG at a depth of 30 kilometers east of the Euphrates.

  Turkey occupied a large area between the cities of Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain.

Now Erdogan wants to intervene again in Syria.

They want to "smash the terror corridor in northern Syria and cleanse Syria of the terror of the PKK/YPG," he claimed.

Several senior Turkish diplomats, including Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Erdogan spokesman Ibrahim Kalin, are also voicing this intention at every opportunity.

However, Ankara is confronted with several difficulties.

Putin-Erdogan meeting: Turkish President needs Kremlin approval for Syria intervention

Erdogan needs clear approval from Putin to carry out the military operation.

The main focus is on the cities of Manbij and Tal Rifat in the western part of the Euphrates.

But Kobani in the east of the Euphrates could also become the target of Turkish attacks.

According to the opposition channel Syria TV, YPG commander Mazlum Abdi confirmed at a press conference in mid-July that Russian units are present in all three cities following an agreement with the Syrian Assad regime.

Turkish intervention amid the presence of Russian troops seems unlikely.

As early as 2018, the offensive in Afrin could only be carried out after Putin's soldiers withdrew.

According to Kurdish sources, there are also regime troops currently in Manbij, Tal Rifat and Kobani, but Turkey should worry less about them.

After all, Ankara does not shy away from targeting regime units.

During the attack on Afrin, the Syrian regime's "National Defense Forces" (NDF) came under aerial fire.

In 2020, Assad's troops were decimated in drone strikes as part of Operation Spring Shield in Idlib province.

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Erdogan wants to intervene in Syria - but he needs Russia's approval

In the run-up to the meeting in Sochi, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that it would definitely also be about Syria.

"Turkey has legitimate security concerns that we need to consider," Russian state agency

Peskov quoted as saying.

However, there should be no actions that would endanger the "stability and territorial and political integrity" of Syria, he said at the same time.

However, at the three-way summit with Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on July 19, Erdogan said that the security concerns should not be understood literally.

According to Erdogan, action must follow.

Erdogan should mean a green light for the operation in Syria.

The meeting with Putin is extremely critical for the Turkish President in this regard.

For Erdogan, the Ukraine war with a view to Syria could also be a great opportunity.

The opposition Russian newspaper

reported in early May that the Russian military was withdrawing most of the troops from Syria in order to send them to Ukraine.

However, Turkish and Western officials told the British newspaper

in late July that not much has changed in Russia's position in Syria despite the Ukraine war.

Still, Russia is undeniably distracted right now and Erdogan might not want to miss the opportunity.

Turkish intervention in Syria?

Erdogan needs the green light from Putin and Biden

With approval from Moscow, however, the matter would not be over for a long time.

Because Turkey regards the YPG as a "terrorist organization", but for the USA the Kurdish unit is a valuable ally in the fight against the IS terrorist militia.

Turkish sources told the London-based Arab newspaper

that after Russian approval, the issue would also be discussed with the United States.

At the same time, it was said that steps were not to be taken in Syria without the consent of Washington, so as not to disturb the current good atmosphere between Ankara and the White House.

After all, Turkey wants to buy F-16 fighter jets from the US, the sources stressed, noting that US President Joe Biden supports it despite objections from Congress.

Congress has already tied the sale of F-16 jets to conditions such as not threatening Greece.

Should Biden's support also fall away, a possible deal would fail completely.

After being excluded from the F-35 program, Turkey urgently needs new, at least updated, fighter jets.

After Russia, Erdogan should go to the USA.

But even there, Erdogan may have little success.

"We are against any escalation in northern Syria," emphasized US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

The current ceasefire lines must be respected, he said.

Dana Stroul, the US deputy secretary of defense for Middle East affairs, expressed concerns at an online event hosted by the US Middle East Institute that a new Turkish operation could lead to the strengthening of IS.

The background: The YPG controls almost the entire area east of the Euphrates - areas that once belonged to the IS terrorist militia.

There are still isolated IS cells in desert areas.

In addition, the Kurdish units guard prisons where IS prisoners are held.

The US fears that IS could benefit from a Turkish attack on the YPG, since the Kurdish fighters would focus primarily on defending themselves against the Turkish military.

Pressure on Erdogan is growing - the Turkish population and Syrian allies are waiting for Syrian intervention

Within Turkey and under the allied "Syrian National Army" - a coalition of several Syrian opposition groups - the pressure on Erdogan is growing.

Turkey accuses the YPG of attacking Turkish civilians and soldiers in northern Syria.

The Turkish population is demanding consequences for the deaths of soldiers in Syria.

The fact that Erdogan talks about "national security interests" on the one hand, but asks Russia and the USA for their approval on the other, damages the image of his foreign policy enormously.

Erdogan is constantly trying to score points in this area in particular.

In addition, Turkey's Syrian allies have repeatedly told the Arab media that they are ready to support Turkey's offensive.

According to local media reports, Turkey has also sent several convoys with armored vehicles and troops to the front lines.

However, the expected “zero hour” has not happened for weeks.

This can be compared to the attack in 2019: In a speech, Erdogan promised a military operation that should start “within a few days”.

However, it took around nine months before the intervention finally began in October - only with a withdrawal of US soldiers on the orders of ex-President Donald Trump.

Even now Erdogan expects a withdrawal of US troops.

"The US must withdraw from the east of the Euphrates," he told reporters upon returning from the meeting in Iran.

However, there are no signs of a change in US policy towards Syria in the near future.

Elections are due in Turkey next year.

The Turkish President is trying to use foreign policy maneuvers to calm the growing dissatisfaction with his government, which is mainly due to the difficult economic situation.

Syria could prove ideal for this.

But for this Erdogan would first have to master the meeting with Putin in his interest.