After the People's Liberation Army launched six military exercises to encircle Taiwan on August 4, as of 4:00 on the same day, the Taiwan side stated that 74 flights and 35 ships needed to detour in and out of Taiwan, and many airlines also cancelled flights to Taiwan.
The Wall Street Journal published a special analysis on this, pointing out that the pattern of China's three-day military exercise seems to be a rehearsal for the "blockade of Taiwan" in future conflicts.
In the imagination of many people's military reunification, missiles are raining, Taiwan's key strategic facilities are completely destroyed, and the PLA's landing is probably the main picture.
However, preparations for an armed attack on Taiwan will take time, and the war will cost a lot, which will inevitably provoke economic and even military countermeasures from the international community, and there is no ideal result of a quick war. Taiwan's military strength, whether it should be "pre-emptive" and other complex issues, as a means to achieve military unification of Taiwan, may not be a suitable starting method.
A full-scale attack may not be the best approach
In fact, according to the sand table deduction of China's 2027 attack on Taiwan made by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), a Washington think tank in April this year, based on 10 former and current U.S. officials and relevant experts, for China and the United States, this war will There is no quick victory, and both China and the United States will cross each other's red lines, escalating the conflict to a level that could involve the use of nuclear weapons.
Evan Braden Montgomery and Toshi Yoshihara, two senior researchers at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment (CSBA), another Washington think tank, once made judgments based on the Russian-Ukrainian war and believed that China is more likely to use three strategies to achieve military reunification.
First, as Putin hinted at the possibility of using nuclear weapons, in order to limit the degree of involvement of potential conflict parties such as the United States (in the Ukraine war, the United States has drawn red lines on projects such as sending personnel to support and implementing a no-fly zone).
The second is to blockade Taiwan, control or prevent Taiwan's foreign trade and material supply to Taiwan, and put pressure on Taiwan in a semi-military manner.
The third is to try to "behead" Taiwan's government leadership (imagine Zelensky dying on the first day of the Russian war or fleeing Kyiv).
Taiwan Locking Action "3 First Times" (authorized by United News Network)
They believe that even if China will eventually use air strikes, missile bombings, and amphibious landings to seize control of Taiwan by force, judging from the lessons of the Ukraine war, China will have strong reasons to blockade first.
This judgment does have its merits.
Compared with Ukraine, which is located on the plains of Eastern Europe, there are high mountains in Taiwan, and the Taiwan Strait is separated from the mainland, excluding the outer islands, which will force the attackers to carry out extremely high-risk landing operations, and there will be huge counterattacks on the island. space.
Let's not forget that the Russian army has not yet been able to fully occupy air supremacy on the Ukrainian battlefield. To fully capture Taiwan, the People's Liberation Army may have to pay a huge cost, or even fall into a protracted war.
The advantages of "sealing Taiwan"
However, the geography of Taiwan as an island makes it an easy object to be blocked by sea and air. Unlike Ukraine, which has a long land border with NATO countries, it is easy to transport materials and arms.
The east coast of Taiwan is steep and difficult for shipping to land. It mainly relies on three ports on the west coast and the northern end for shipping, namely Kaohsiung Port, Taichung Port and Keelung Port.
This allows the PLA to have a clear blockade and even attack targets.
Since 60% of Taiwan's food and almost all of its energy are imported from overseas, the shortage of material supply will cause a serious and immediate blow to Taiwan. Analysts generally believe that Taiwan does not have enough food and energy for long-term combat.
Taiwan Navy Exercise: On August 4, 2022, CCTV released a picture of the military exercise and missile launch on the 4th (CCTV via AP)
Different from the large-scale military mobilization required for a full-scale offensive, just like this PLA military exercise, the blockade can be carried out suddenly in the form of warship or missile shooting training, and even semi-military establishments such as the coast guard can be implemented, and then cooperate with the Air Force in Taiwan's surrounding (non-Taiwan airspace) ) to inspect and intercept aircraft entering and leaving Taiwan.
A research report sponsored by the US think tank RAND Corporation (RAND) in February this year, sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, pointed out that the China Coast Guard has more than 130 large patrol ships, 70 fast patrol attack ships, and 400 patrol ships. The new ships have been equipped with helicopter lift equipment, powerful water cannons, and cannons of 30 to 76 cm caliber, which have enough force to implement the blockade.
In recent years, Chinese military aircraft that have entered Taiwan's air defense identification zone almost every day can also cooperate with the coast guard to jointly conduct blockade operations.
The advantage of this kind of blockade first is that it is in
the "gray area" between military and non-military
, so that the opponent has no reason to start a full-scale war immediately, and it puts the responsibility for the escalation of the conflict on other actors such as the United States, and because China Not recognizing the Taiwan regime's sovereignty over Taiwan, this blockade can be further supported by China's legal justification for exercising customs control over its own territory.
America will be in a dilemma
Compared with the PLA's full-scale attack on Taiwan, the United States has no feasible reciprocal response to China's semi-military law enforcement and even targeted attack on the blockade of port facilities.
Even Russia cannot deal with economic sanctions, let alone China, the world's second largest economy and mastering the production of various key products?
Moreover, China has a vast territory, and it is even more impossible to "anti-block" China with the same kind of blockade it imposed on Taiwan.
On August 3, 2022, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her delegation met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen.
(Nancy Pelosi @Twitter)
The RAND report mentions the possibility of a "remote lockdown."
Since the U.S. Navy is all over the world, they can implement blockades against China in major waterways, preventing all kinds of goods and resources from being shipped to China.
However, the report pointed out that the remote blockade is extremely difficult and the effect is limited. On the one hand, the whereabouts of the goods on the freighter are complicated and difficult to clearly handle. On the other hand, China also has land transportation remedies, and even if such a blockade can be implemented, China’s ability to bear is far better than that of Taiwan. Big, if the United States wants to fight the blockade with a blockade, the first one that cannot stand it will be Taiwan.
Therefore, the only potentially effective U.S. response is to escalate and proactively counter the force China uses to block Taiwan.
However, when the United States decides whether to escalate China's blockade against Taiwan, Taiwan may have surrendered because it could not stand it first, leaving the United States without anyone it could "help".
Moreover, while the United States decides to take the lead in firing, the United States also has to decide whether to start a full-scale war against China—that is, whether to take the initiative to attack all military installations on the territory of mainland China that may threaten the U.S. military.
If the U.S. is limited to attacking China's military forces carrying out the blockade, the U.S. military performing such tasks is likely to be attacked by the Chinese side.
According to a comprehensive analysis by The Economist in May 2021, China's air defense and anti-ship missile systems have covered the entire island of Taiwan, and its DF-21D medium-range anti-ship ballistic missiles can attack targets within 1,500 kilometers. 6 bombers can attack the US airfield in Guam, and DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missiles can attack targets within 4,000 kilometers.
The RAND report also pointed out that disrupting China's blockade requires U.S. forces to move closer to Taiwan. If the U.S. puts too much naval and air force within China's attack capabilities, it may face a pre-emptive Chinese attack.
The Dongfeng-21D missile is considered to be China's first "aircraft carrier killer".
(Xinhua News Agency)
Moreover, since China’s blockade is only a customs enforcement action that the US should recognize under the one-China principle—China can even allow food, medicine, and energy imports, without putting pressure on Taiwan for people’s livelihood, but actually taking away its customs power— - This not only makes it more difficult for the US to make an active attack decision, but also makes China's response to the US attack into a self-defense action.
Therefore, in the face of China's blockade of Taiwan, the United States is faced with a dilemma: whether to accept China's military control of Taiwan and lose the unsinkable warship on the first island chain in its eyes, or to immediately escalate to the level of a full-scale war between China and the United States. .
The former, similar to and even more so than the Russian-Ukrainian war, will bring about the official end of the era of American and even Western hegemony; the latter, however, threatens a third world war, or even a nuclear war.
The significance of the three-day Chinese military exercise from August 4th may not lie in what weapons the PLA has tested, but in its partial disclosure of its ability to block Taiwan.
Preparations for "Taiwan closure"
Regarding the threat of "blocking Taiwan", the response strategies proposed by various parties can be roughly divided into three parts.
The first is to reduce the cost of "giving up Taiwan" to the United States and the Western world, the main action of which is to diversify the supply of semiconductors (in other words, to take away Taiwan's leadership in semiconductor production).
In this way, even if the unsinkable battleship of the first island chain falls into the hands of the Chinese side, the key cutting-edge semiconductor production will not become China's exclusive at the same time.
The second is to help "Taiwan save itself".
On the one hand, Taiwan needs to massively strengthen the reserves of food, fuel, medicine, and military materials to cope with the possibility of being blocked for a long time; on the other hand, Taiwan should also strengthen the development of asymmetric military forces so that it can deal with it more "by itself". Chinese blockade and potential attack.
The third is to strengthen the message of "blockade is war", so as to create new awareness.
Since the biggest advantage of China's "Taiwan closure" strategy is that it is not an official war, the goal of this kind of propaganda is to equate the blockade with a full-scale war, remove the "gray area", and let the Chinese side consider that the blockade will likely lead to a Sino-US war. huge cost.
However, the implementation of these countermeasures will take time and the effect is questionable.
In contrast, China has now proved its strength and action to seal Taiwan.
Pelosi's visit to Japan | Why did the Kishida government in the "crossfire" between China and Japan yell at the military exercise and punish Taiwan for "something in Taiwan"? How does the United States account for this?
｜Taiwan Strait and China-US-Taiwan Naval Exercise｜Yonaguni Island has changed from a tourist resort to a defense frontline, of course, China’s reduction in US debt is not because of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan |
