Asia unsettled: China's maneuvers are dragging Taiwan's neighbors into crisis

Created: 06/08/2022, 06:32

By: Christiane Kuehl

Group picture with lady(s): Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida received Nancy Pelosi at his official residence – despite her trip to Taipei.

South Korea's President, on the other hand, did not want to meet her.

© IMAGO/Kyodo News

Whether they like it or not, the countries of East Asia are being drawn into the tensions surrounding Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

Japan in particular is feeling the effects of the conflict directly.

Munich/Tokyo/Beijing – Japan was not amused.

On the first day of China's retaliatory maneuvers around Taiwan, at least five missiles and drones landed in Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), a sea area less than 200 nautical miles from the mainland.

The zone borders Taiwan to the north;

Japan said four of the missiles had previously flown over the island.

Tokyo called on Beijing to end military exercises immediately.

"China's actions this time have serious implications for the peace and stability of our region and the international community," Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters.

Shortly before, he had met Pelosi in Tokyo for breakfast;

it is the last station of their Asia trip.

The incident shows how much the neighboring countries are already being sucked into the cross-strait crisis.

It's not just a conflict between China, Taiwan and the USA.

The crisis triggered by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's ban on Taiwan could spread to the region or even the world.

China's maneuvers near Taiwan show not only its strength but also its anger.

So far, it's uncertain how far Beijing will go: will it stick with symbolic reactions, demonstrations of what China could do if it wanted to?

"China's reaction to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is intended to exert maximum pressure and demonstrate power and military strength," Valarie Tan, an expert at the Merics Institute for China Studies in Berlin, told

from

.

"Beyond the domestic audience, Beijing wants to intimidate governments around the world, including Japan, with this move - and make them understand that any support for Taiwan will have serious consequences."

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Taiwan conflict: Japan increasingly critical of China - South Korea cautious

Japan's relationship with China in particular is difficult.

Japan is one of the firm US allies in the Far East, was a colonial power in Taiwan - and occupied large parts of China during World War II, which has not really been worked out between the two countries to this day.

They do have close economic ties;

but there are always political discords.

Among the riparian states, Japan was the most supportive of Washington's position on the Taiwan crisis - and is increasingly willing to openly criticize Beijing's retaliatory measures as economic and military harassment against Taipei, despite all harsh reactions from Beijing.

The Japanese Ministry of Defense showed a map of Chinese missile strikes in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

© IMAGO/Zuma Wire/Andre M. Chang

South Korea, on the other hand, is trying far harder to equalize with Beijing.

New South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol chose not to meet Pelosi during her visit to Seoul on Thursday - he only spoke to her on the phone.

Yoon had announced during his election campaign that he would be tougher on China.

In practice this is not that easy.

Instead of Yoon, Pelosi met her counterpart, South Korea's parliament speaker Kim Jin-pyo.

The public statements after their meeting only revolved around the dangers posed by North Korea's nuclear armament - as if Pelosi's trip to Taipei had never happened.

China rejoiced: "Perhaps the South Korean leader has realized that whoever plays Pelosi's senior host at this delicate moment risks provoking China,"

.

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Asia after Pelosi's trip to Taiwan: Concerns about escalation

So maybe even more severe actual measures will follow in the next few days?

A blockade of Taiwan after the end of the maneuvers scheduled for Sunday, or economic sanctions against anyone who dares to criticize Beijing's behavior as an overreaction?

The fact that China's Foreign Ministry suspended cooperation with the United States in important areas on Friday is not really a good omen: Dialogues and cooperation with Washington, among other things, on climate protection, the coordination of defense policy, maritime security or cross-border crime will be ended until further notice .

According to experts, this effectively brings large parts of official diplomatic relations to a standstill.

Beijing also imposed unspecified sanctions on Pelosi and her family.

China carries conflict into ASEAN meeting

The consequences of Pelosi's trip are meanwhile also being felt in multilateral forums in the region.

On Friday at the foreign ministers' meeting of the Southeast Asian state association Asean in the Cambodian capital Phnom Penh, the representatives of China - and significantly also of Russia - demonstratively left the room when a Japanese delegate began his speech.

The foreign ministers of Russia, China, Japan and the EU were invited to the meeting as guests, which promptly put anger over Kishida's breakfast with Pelosi on the Asean agenda.

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi canceled a meeting with his Japanese counterpart Yoshimasa Hayashi in Phnom Penh on Thursday.

Beijing gave a China-critical statement by the G7 group on Wednesday as the reason for this.

Japan is a member of the G7.

The world's most powerful democracies accused China of "increasing tensions and destabilizing the region" with its response to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

China and Taiwan: That's what the conflict is about

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Asean itself had already called on all sides to “maximum restraint” on Wednesday.

And Singapore, Pelosi's first stop on her Asian tour, expressed hope that the US and China would find a "modus vivendi" for dealing with each other and peaceful coexistence, and practice "self-restraint".

"Beijing's military drills near Taiwan have clearly raised concern among the governments of Asean countries -- where China has significant economic influence," says Valarie Tan.

"However, this does not mean that Asean countries have now chosen sides and are now openly supporting the United States and Taiwan."

Taiwan and China: Asia also criticizes Pelosi's trip

There are many other factors to consider, not least the close economic ties between many Asian countries and China.

"Nonetheless, Pelosi's high-profile visit unwittingly highlighted China's growing military ambitions in the region -- even though her trip was viewed by some as provocative and reckless," Tan said.

Despite all the support for Taiwan, there are also voices in US-friendly Japan that criticize Pelosi's trip.

"I think Pelosi made a wrong and quite stupid decision to visit Taiwan," Akitoshi Miyashita, a professor of international relations at Tokyo International University, told Hong Kong

.

According to Miyashita, Kishida walks a very fine line.

"I also believe that most countries in the region have tacit support for Taiwan.

But they are very careful not to say anything that Beijing could interpret as criticism.”

For the time being, the worst consequences will not be borne by the mighty USA, which is thousands of kilometers away - but by the people in Taiwan and the neighboring countries in Asia.

The

also polled experts in Southeast Asia;

the tenor was the same for all: criticism of Pelosi's trip to Taiwan, which unnecessarily increased tensions in a region that had not been included or listened to.

At the same time, the respondents also expressed anger at Beijing's aggressive behavior.

The region has truly turbulent times ahead, and through no fault of its own.