After the residents of the Gaza Strip were asked to shut themselves in their homes for more than three days, the political leadership decided to take the initiative and attack the Islamic Jihad, just before it carries out a serious attack and drags Israel into escalation under conditions that are not favorable to it.
The IDF's opening operation was precise. Thanks to high-quality intelligence from the General Security Service, within 180 seconds the army was able to eliminate a senior member of the Islamic Jihad, and at the same time hit the chain involved in carrying out the planned anti-tank attack.
As expected, the Islamic Jihad responded by firing rockets at Israel.
The rebellious organization did succeed in launching hundreds of rockets, but it had great difficulty reaching the outskirts of Gush Dan, and thanks to the Iron Dome fighters who recorded more than 95% success - as of the time the newspaper closed, it recorded almost no successes in harming lives or property.
Already in the days leading up to the arrest of the organization's senior official in Samaria, the IDF realized that the Islamic Jihad was looking for an escalation. The security establishment began meticulous preparations for the "Dawn" operation, which included the deployment of iron domes, the closing of axes and the preparation of the offensive moves. Past experience shows that after the initial success The situation can only deteriorate as far as Israel is concerned.As time passes, the strength of the initial achievement may erode.
Despite the official declarations of readiness to continue fighting, it is likely that even at the top of the security establishment they would prefer now to strive for the end of the operation, of course while leaving a mark of severe damage to the Islamic Jihad and denying its operational capabilities.
As long as Hamas remains out of the campaign, it will be possible to end the operation quickly, because even though the Islamic Jihad is a rebellious organization - it is still a small and weak organization compared to Hamas.
The prevailing opinion in the security establishment now is that Hamas prefers not to enter into a conflict.
Still, there are several factors that could drag Hamas into the campaign.
One of them is victims not involved in Gaza, which will force the ruling organization in the Strip to come to their defense.
Prime Minister Yair Lapid assessing the situation in Kirya in Tel Aviv
Another explosive factor is the flare-up in Al-Aqsa, which Hamas cannot remain indifferent to.
Today will be a day of testing, as today is the day of fasting on the 9th of Av.
An unusual event on the Temple Mount will cause not only Hamas to join the campaign, but may also ignite riots among the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria and even among the Israeli Arabs.
We should also remember the northern arena - there are Palestinian organizations that in the past launched rockets into Israel.
Even Nasrallah, who these days is only looking for an excuse to clash with Israel on the background of the naval negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, is watching what is happening closely. At this stage, as long as Hamas does not join the campaign, the IDF estimates that the confrontation with Islamic Jihad will be limited and will continue At most a week.
But the fact that Israel and Hamas are not interested in escalation does not guarantee anything.
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