Although Israel has so far recorded a series of achievements in the "Dawn" operation, the main challenge is still ahead of it: to end the fighting as soon as possible and without Hamas joining it, and in the end create a prolonged deterrence against the Islamic Jihad.
As always, the opening move largely determined the rest.
In Israel, he was held for several days, waiting for the Shin Bet's accurate intelligence that would enable the defeat of the leader of the Islamic Jihad in the north of the Gaza Strip, Taysir Jabari - the dominant figure in the organization's military wing and the one responsible for the latest escalation. During the wait, the IDF tightened the defense around the Gaza Strip and beyond - through the deployment of Iron Dome batteries in several locations, including in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem - and airing the operational plans for the possibility of a limited or extensive escalation.
This preparation had a certain price in public opinion and criticism of the political and security leadership, but they chose to pay it in view of the entire move.
There are quite a few politicians and journalists who will probably want to swallow the articles and tweets they published;
Lessons would have been learned, otherwise it would have been hopeless.
The same elements that attacked Prime Minister Lapid and Defense Minister Gantz for shying away from action in Gaza in the name of politics and elections, are rushing to attack them now for acting in Gaza, well - in the name of politics and elections.
Therefore, the opposition leader, Binyamin Netanyahu, did well when he announced that he would arrive today for a security briefing with the Prime Minister. If he had done so earlier, he might have spared some of his supporters the embarrassment they published. Criticism of the government is of course legitimate and desirable, but it is good for it to lean on Adni the reality
In the current case, the criticism was the opposite of reality: the long wait for action was not due to laxity or defeatism - but rather from a search for an operational opportunity that would allow Israel to start with the Joker already in its hands, just as it did in 2012 at the beginning of Operation "Pillar of Cloud" when it eliminated the then military leader of Hamas, Ahmed Jabari, and as it did in 2019 when it killed the then military leader of the Islamic Jihad, Baha Abu al-Atta, at the beginning of the "Black Belt" operation.
So as of today, the main goal of the operation was to harm the Islamic Jihad while leaving Hamas out of the campaign.
This is a complicated challenge, because Hamas is on the verge of a dilemma: on the one hand, it is a jihad organization and also the sovereign in the Strip, which is committed to its defense, on the other hand, it has no desire to be dragged into escalation and pay the military and civilian price involved just because someone in the Islamic Jihad chose to go crazy.
The wait gave birth to an opportunity.
IDF fighters at the Gaza border, photo: AFP
Jihad seeks achievement
Over the weekend, Israel sent messages to Hamas that it would not act against it if it refrained from action, and even urged it to rein in the Islamic Jihad while promising that once the fighting stops, the restrictions placed on the Strip will be lifted and workers will resume going to work in Israel and moving goods to Gaza.
Israel hopes that this carrot, which was delivered through the Egyptians, will be enough to leave Hamas in its current position of avoiding war.
However, as the fighting continues - and if there are a large number of non-involved citizens of the Gaza Strip who will be harmed - the intra-Palestinian pressure on Hamas to act will increase.
For this reason Israel is interested in ending the fighting as soon as possible.
It is doubtful whether the Islamic Jihad has the same interest, despite the severe blow it has suffered.
It is likely that he will seek an achievement, which for the time being will not be given to him due to the strong defense of the IDF and civil discipline on the home front. However, as the vulnerabilities of the organization's operatives deepen - together with the extensive arrests carried out in the West Bank over the weekend - the Islamic Jihad will also be forced to recalculate its course. This, after failing Also their attempt to design a new deterrence equation that would link the arrests in Yosh to threats from Gaza.
Avoid provocations
And yet, it is too early to summarize the current round of fighting.
Not only Hamas may change the picture, but also events in other sectors.
Yosh is quiet for the time being, as are the northern sector and the cities involved, but today eyes will be turned to Jerusalem against the background of the mass ascent of Jews to the Temple Mount, including members of the Knesset, as part of the Tisha B'Av fasting prayers. To make it clear that Israel is the sovereign on the ground and will not act on the threats from Gaza. On the other hand, the pilgrims to the mountain would do well to avoid unnecessary provocations, which could escalate the situation.
If today's events in Jerusalem pass quietly, and if there is no surprising turn in the fighting in Gaza, the pressure on the Islamic Jihad to lay siege to the fire will increase.
In any case, the quality of his launches is not at its peak, and it seems that his reserves are relatively thin compared to the past.
It is likely, therefore, that there will be those in the organization who will seek to cut losses, and fold;
These are decisions that will be made within the Islamic Jihad and not in Iran, which, contrary to various publications, is not at all involved in the current escalation.
Israel is working in every way - military, political and cognitive - to create pressure on the Islamic Jihad that will lead to this conclusion.
In the meantime, the cards are working in her favor: starting with the surprising and successful opening move, through the smooth operation of the security forces (the Shin Bet in intelligence and the IDF in execution) and the synchronization between them and the political echelon, and ending with the impressive performance of the authorities and citizens on the home front.
The challenge now is to continue this trend and avoid mistakes, until the final whistle.
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