Duque exalts diplomatic siege and recognizes "error" in forecast about Maduro 8:28
(CNN) --
The government of President Iván Duque ends.
There are hours left for Duque, who reached the most important position in the country despite his little experience in public office, to fulfill his mandate and open a new era for Colombia.
CNN consulted several analysts to outline how the country is coming to a new administration with important challenges such as the implementation of the post-conflict, combating the rising violence and getting the country out of the social and economic crisis.
Duque (Bogotá, 1976) hands over command on August 7.
After four years in the Presidency of Colombia, between 2018 and 2022, Duque leaves a country in which serious acts of violence have occurred, with the unresolved phenomenon of the murder of social leaders and enormous social discontent that was evident during years of protests against his government, although with some policies that can give him a break at the end of the mandate: better management of the pandemic and the migrant protection statute.
"The country is in an absolutely dramatic situation due to the security problems that exist, both in what has to do with the armed conflict and in what has to do with security in the cities," he told CNN en Español the political analyst Camilo Prieto, associate professor of the Department of International Relations of the Pontificia Universidad Javeriana de Bogotá, on the presidency of Duque, between 2018 and 2022.
According to Prieto, "there is absolutely no reform, no policy that one can highlight at this time" in the Duque government.
Prieto points out, among other problems, "the breach of the peace agreement with the demobilized FARC guerrilla, the emergence of armed groups in rural areas, the murder of social leaders, in addition to the social crises accentuated by the coronavirus pandemic."
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The post-conflict during the Government of Iván Duque: half implementation and scandal
One of the most challenging situations that Duque leaves behind is a Colombia marked by violence.
During his administration, from August 2018 to August 2022, more than 957 social leaders and human rights defenders were assassinated, in addition to 261 signers of the peace agreement with the demobilized FARC guerrilla, according to figures from the Institute of Studies for the Development and Peace (Indepaz).
There were also 220 cases of forced disappearances during the mandate, says Indepaz.
"The peace agreement was not implemented in a comprehensive manner and that is allowing the resurgence of violence in a serious way, especially the recomposition of armed groups and a resurgence of drug trafficking," Camilo González Posso, director of Indepaz, an organization, told CNN. non-governmental organization that investigates acts of violence in the country.
Although Duque has said that he defends "peace with legality", analysts such as González Posso consider that there is a breach of the agreements and that this has led to the repetition of forms of violence like those from before the agreements.
"In that sense, it is like the worst balance of the government that has offered a simulation to sell an image at the international level that it respects peace, but at the same time the substitution of peace for a security policy for a new war," he says. Gonzalez Posso.
Duque has defended his security management and in his last government speech he extolled the management, although the balance shows that he boasted in the international arena for something that he did not fully develop internally.
READ: ANALYSIS | Duque and the peace agreement with the FARC: from his speeches abroad to his actions in Colombia).
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In April of this year, before the UN Security Council, Duque said that his government "promoted the extension of Law 1448 (the Victims' Law)" and in July before Congress, in his final speech, he stated that " We extended the law that protects them for 10 years.
However, as ColombiaCheck verified, this is false, since its administration opposed the lawsuit seeking that extension, granted by court order, and that otherwise the ruling party, the Democratic Center, was against complying with that order.
The same thing happened with the seats of the victims, something that he extolled before the UN but to which he and his party opposed in Colombia.
According to a 2021 Human Rights Watch report, many of those who submitted to the will for peace are at the mercy of violence and the Executive's protection mechanisms present "serious deficiencies."
"This government chose to comply with the agreement with the FARC halfway," Prieto said.
"This meant that a huge number of people who were willing to demobilize in principle, FARC guerrillas, returned to the ranks of what are now dissidents, to the ranks of groups that used to fight, such as paramilitary groups of gangs organized criminals."
"Without a doubt, these groups, both dissidents (from the FARC) and criminal gangs have continued to recruit people," adds Prieto.
"The murder of social leaders does not stop, the massacres continue, the presence of these groups continues in a number of places where the State supposedly had to be present and did not."
Criticism of Duque in his last speech in Congress 2:27
In addition, the Duque government closes with a stain regarding the implementation of the peace agreement due to allegations of alleged corruption: the media reported in July that some US$ 120,000 million for the projects of the peace agreement (in the Ocad Paz, Collegiate Administration Body created after the peace agreement to approve royalty monies for projects in municipalities of the Development Program with a Territorial Approach, Pdets, those most affected by the conflict) were for the payment of bribes to government officials, the Comptroller and congressmen, something that the Executive has rejected.
So far there have been no formal accusations in the Prosecutor's Office, which is investigating the case, as well as the Attorney General's Office, the Comptroller's Office and the Supreme Court of Justice (in the case of the aforementioned congressmen).
In other words, in addition to the obstacles that the Duque government placed on the implementation, there are suspicions that these resources were diverted for bribes or would have been stolen.
Social crises and economic challenges
A social crisis began in 2019 after the actions of the Army that led to the death of minors in Caquetá, the murders of indigenous people in Cauca at the hands of criminal groups (episodes that led to the resignation of the then Minister of Defense, Guillermo Botero) .
The discontent erupted in 2021 over the failed tax reform proposal (which led to the resignation of the then Minister of Finance, Alberto Carrasquilla) that brought millions of people to the streets in various cities in the country.
Although the Duque administration withdrew it, this was an opportunity for the demonstrations to be expanded for more underlying reasons, in a country that was not only besieged by violence, but also by social inequality.
"It is the greatest expression of rejection of what were the anti-democratic social and media policies, the handling of this government of the public order situation and the police response to the protests as if it were a war situation," González Posso said.
The government response was, according to opponents and protesters, of stigmatization of the protest and a reaction of excessive force by the authorities: according to NGO Tremors, there were 83 homicides during the demonstrations, 44 of them by members of the Public Force, figures that the Government does not confirm and that CNN cannot independently verify.
According to the analyst, the response given to the social crisis has been one of inequity and "favoring the most powerful sectors" saying that this may be the answer to the crisis.
"But what we have had is a scenario of inequality and extreme poverty, informality, dignified desperation," he says.
These are the conclusions of a harsh UN report on national unemployment (2021) 3:12
And although the government has said that the pandemic accentuated social problems, Prieto says that without the pandemic there would not have been a substantial improvement in the social situation either.
"Duque's economic policy was never focused on it," Prieto said.
"From the beginning, Duque did not have a job creation policy. Duque did not have a policy to formalize informal employment because it did not have a productive development policy that would generate more jobs in the manufacturing, media or service sectors."
Duque was able to recover the jobs lost in the pandemic —1.9 million more in June 2022 compared to June 2021 according to figures from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE)— but it closes with an unemployment rate of 11.3% ( June figure), an improvement compared to June 2021 (14.6%), but still above the 9.1% of June 2018, just before he took office.
Nor did it manage to improve labor formality: the employment rate in June was 56.5%, while in June 2018 it was 58.3%.
During his government, inflation went from 3.23% in September 2018 —the first measurement of his administration— to 10.21% in July 2022, according to data from the Banco de la República.
And the price of the dollar went from 2,898 to 4,336 pesos on August 5.
The dollar peaked in July 2022, reaching 4,400 pesos.
DANE reported that the poverty rate increased from 36% in 2019 to 42.5% in 2020. For 2021 the figure was 39.3%.
And a 2020 DANE study reported that the number of Colombian families that eat less than three times a day tripled since the start of the pandemic.
Sociology and History professor José Alejandro Cifuentes previously told CNN that the economic situation facing Colombia is bleak and entangled with its history of civil war and inequality.
"We are in a very serious situation regarding access to higher education, to employment, and we are facing a situation of high informal employment, which is the only space left for these young people," Cifuentes said in relation to the young Colombians who They took to the streets to express their frustrations and concerns.
Military actions and captures
Violence in the country has not only been at the hands of illegal armed groups.
During Duque's mandate, attacks by the Army on civilians have been denounced several times, which the Government has justified by saying that they are legitimate targets because they hide "terrorists."
One of those scandals cost his first defense minister, Guillermo Botero, his job in November 2019, when it was reported that eight minors died in an Army bombardment against criminal organizations in Caquetá, in the west of the country.
On two occasions, congressmen debated the motion of censure of the outgoing Minister of Defense, Diego Molano: first in May 2021 after the denunciations of abuses by members of the Public Force in the protests (and after the bombing of a guerrilla dissident camp in which children died in March of that year), and then in May due to a military operation in Putumayo in which civilians died, including a minor.
None of the motions succeeded.
Also during the Duque administration, another scandal was uncovered related to alleged orders from Army commanders, General Nicasio Martínez, to high-ranking officers so that, according to
The New York Times
, the battalions double "the number of criminals and rebels who kill, capture or forced to surrender in battle".
Martínez was removed from his position.
At that time, Martínez said he was "ready to contribute with transparency and with the peace of mind of having always acted within the framework of the law."
The general maintained at that time that there is no investigation against him for this or other cases in any judicial instance and stated that the orders that have been given are to improve "operational results."
González Posso says that the Duque government implemented a security doctrine in which it deals with "social problems and political problems and nonconformity" with a strategy of internal war.
Duque was elected under the banner of "peace with legality", of combating criminal groups and adjustments to what his party considered vices of the peace agreement with the FARC ("neither shreds nor laughter," he said during the campaign).
"It's like going back to the past, as if the future new normality were really a return to the old expressions. Then of the very deep social crisis," says González Posso about all the crises in the country, which include drug trafficking.
In October 2021, Duque dealt a heavy blow to drug trafficking with the capture of the leader of the Clan del Golfo, a dangerous criminal organization, Dairo Antonio Úsuga, alias Otoniel.
The president compared his capture to the fall of drug lord Pablo Escobar.
Then, in May, Otoniel was extradited to the US, which many criticized for taking away the truth to the detriment of the victims.
But Otoniel's extradition only generated more violence and days later the Clan del Golfo carried out an armed strike in at least 10 of the country's 32 departments.
That same week, Paraguayan anti-drug prosecutor Marcelo Pecci was shot dead on a private beach in Cartagena.
In July, a so-called Clan del Golfo pistol plan led to the death of police and military personnel in various parts of the country.
Despite the arrests and casualties of criminal leaders, public order continues to be a scourge plaguing Colombia, and the president of the democratic security party did not obtain convincing security figures, according to experts.
The truth commission report
At the end of June 2022, the Truth Commission delivered a historic final report on the memory of the armed conflict that decimated the country for more than half a century.
The recommendations of the Truth Commission of Colombia 3:41
The report maintains that, five years after the signing of the peace agreement between the Government and the FARC-EP, (four years under Duque) "the slow and partial implementation of what was agreed, added to the resurgence of violence in some zones, have hindered the possibility of advancing decisively towards the construction of peace".
In fact, although on paper Colombia is a post-conflict country, the number of internally displaced people continues to rise as other armed groups continue to clash violently, explains Julia Margaret Zulver in this CNN article.
The country has the third largest number of internally displaced people in the world, behind only Syria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Duque did not attend the official delivery of the Truth Commission report, and it was President-elect Gustavo Petro who received the document from Francisco de Roux, president of the Commission.
At a private event the next day at the Casa de Nariño De Roux, he handed over the report.
"These are recommendations that are not binding," said Duque, adding that the report allows "promoting a debate that transcends whether or not you agree with the recommendations."
Colombia's historic Truth Commission published its final report.
Here are 5 key takeaways
The diplomatic siege of Maduro
"Maduro's dictatorship has very few hours left," Duque said on February 1, 2019 at a governors' summit.
"There is a new institutional regime thanks to the work that Colombia and other countries have done," he added.
On January 23 of that year, the opponent of Juan Guaidó had proclaimed himself interim president and was recognized as such by Colombia and dozens of other countries.
During his campaign for the presidency in 2018, Duque made Venezuela an axis: his party put up billboards that said "I do not want to live as a Venezuelan" and the then candidate made references to the situation in the neighboring country under the command of President Nicolás Maduro.
Once in government, Duque launched the concept of "diplomatic siege" to press for a peaceful solution to the political crisis in that country and broke off relations with the Maduro administration.
Today Nicolás Maduro continues to be the constitutional president, although questioned, of Venezuela.
In an interview with Alejandra Oraa of CNN en Español in June, Duque acknowledged that perhaps it was a "mistake" to have said that Maduro had "days left" at the time, but defended the "diplomatic siege."
"What was never a mistake and will never be a mistake is the diplomatic fence," he told CNN in Los Angeles at the Summit of the Americas.
"Because the reason why Nicolás Maduro today has more than 50 countries that do not recognize him and the reason why he is pressured to have to go to Mexico to sit at the table with the democratic resistance is precisely because there was a diplomatic siege and some denunciations of their behavior before the International Criminal Court and that will always be a source of pride for me," he said.
"We are going to continue fighting until the last of our days so that Venezuela sees a return to democracy," he concluded.
Iván Duque: Petro was a defender of the Chávez model 0:31
President-elect Gustavo Petro announced the reestablishment of relations with Venezuela.
Duque, for his part, told Andrés Oppenheimer that Petro "was a defender of the Hugo Chávez model and has also been close to Nicolás Maduro" and described that relations with the questioned president of Venezuela end up "favoring his brutality as a dictator in detriment of the Venezuelan people".
unfavorable
Duque is, until now, the president with the highest unfavorable score for almost 30 years, according to the Invamer country survey that measures the favorability of presidents since 1994.
Duque's highest disapproval has reached 76% in April and May 2021. By July, Duque's approval was at 27% and his disapproval was 68% in that poll.
And furthermore, despite having been chosen by former President Uribe as the candidate and representative of his political party, his government has moved away from the most conservative branch of Uribismo, leaving him in a difficult political scenario, where he seems to be governing alone.
"Duque gets himself elected with Uribismo, but he governed with his friends," political analyst Rafael Nieto Loaiza told CNN en Español.
"And he abandoned the possibility of governing with Uribismo. And that is part of the resentment of the Uribista base, even with (former) President Uribe."
Duque has not referred to the criticism from sectors of Uribismo and when questioned by the criticism of the Democratic Center congresswoman María Fernanda Cabal (in June her audios were leaked and broadcast in which she ranted with expletives of the president), the outgoing president he said in August: "To the baseness, height".
In June, Duque visited former President Uribe in Montería.
Uribe is being investigated for a case of alleged false witnesses and has stepped away from electoral politics in recent months.
The lights of the Government of Duque
In his mandate, Duque had to face two particular situations that, according to the opinion of analysts, he got ahead and can be recognized in the midst of so much governance crisis.
One of these was the covid-19 crisis.
His mandate was crossed by a unique pandemic in a century that forced the country to close for months, and contrary to what his critics predicted, the Executive complied with its measures to control covid-19 and have millions vaccinated .
"There was a lot of skepticism. It was said that (the vaccination plan) was going to be a failure, that they had negotiated badly with the laboratories," said Mauricio Jaramillo Jassir, professor of international relations at the Universidad del Rosario.
"But the goals that the Government had proposed to me with the National Vaccination Plan ended up being met, and very quickly Colombia had immunization indicators above the average in Latin America," he added.
According to Our World in Data, as of May 18, Colombia had just over 69% of people fully vaccinated, and about 13% of people partially vaccinated.
The vaccination average of South American countries is 74.5% of people fully vaccinated, and 9.6% of people partially vaccinated.
And on the other hand, according to Prieto, there is the statute of protection for Venezuelan migrants, in the midst of one of the worst humanitarian crises of today that led almost a million Venezuelans to flee their country.
Statute offers opportunities to Venezuelans in Colombia (2021) 2:51
"It is the only policy that I think makes a difference, it has been an excellent policy, it has been a model policy for the whole world, not only for Latin America, but for the world."
"And this status of the protection of migrants has opened up a number of possibilities for Venezuelan migrants," he adds.
For the rest, Prieto points out, "it is impossible to record a single policy that one says: 'this transformed something'" in Colombia during the Duque presidency.
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