In view of the expectations created following the successes of the IDF and the Shin Bet in Gaza, it is important to clarify: from the beginning the "Dawn" operation was not intended to bring about a fundamental change in the situation in the Gaza Strip, nor does it have the potential to do so. A fundamental change requires the involvement of Hamas, which is currently not only not part of the operation's goals, but the security establishment is making a special effort to avoid it.
The operation that Israel initiated almost out of choice was intended to remove the immediate threat that hovered over the residents of the south, in a way that would strengthen Israeli deterrence and sever the connection that Islamic Jihad tried to create between the IDF's operations in the West Bank and its policy of attacks from the Gaza Strip.
The expectations from the operation, as well as the indicators for examining its success, should be calibrated according to this definition.
Merkava tank in action during the "Dawn" operation, photo: IDF spokesperson
Preparations for the funeral
While these lines are being written, preparations are being completed in Rafah for the funeral of Khaled Mansour - one of the senior and veteran commanders of the Islamic Jihad in Gaza, who was responsible for hundreds of attacks against Israel, and for the construction of some of the organization's strategic military formations.
Mansour's assassination, two days after the killing of his accomplice Taysir Jabari, leaves the Islamic Jihad without two of its senior and skilled field commanders, whose experience it needs, especially now, to manage the current campaign.
Head of the Operations Division: "The entire top of the jihad has been eliminated"
The assassinations of Jabari and Mansour will appear high on the list of Jihad's losses in this round, but they are only part of the price the organization pays for its provocation in Israel.
Along with the (painful but tolerable) damage to his people and his abilities in the military field, he will have to deal with embarrassment, and a weakening of his status and the self-confidence of his leaders.
Hamas, presumably, will not make it easy for him.
Jabari (left) and Mansour in the Gaza Strip, photo: E.P
Embarrassing error
He will be required to explain to his activists his embarrassing error in assessing Israel's response and being surprised by it.
He will be required to stand in front of the pictures of the dead and wounded among the residents of Gaza, who were directly hit by fire fired by his squads.
He will have a hard time bragging about his performance in the field of rocket fire as well, which despite their scope - were not particularly impressive.
He will not be able to escape the feeling of the burning insult that in this campaign he is once again left alone: without Hamas, without Hezbollah and without being able to bring a mob of Musat to the streets in Israel.
The Islamic Jihad operatives from Samaria, whose arrest rate by the IDF and the Shin Bet accelerated following the ultimatum he issued, will not congratulate him on this.
The overall balance from his point of view is quite negative.
It can be assumed that he will find it difficult to end the fighting in such a situation and will continue his efforts to drag Hamas into fighting, cause significant damage to the Israeli side and improve his balance sheet.
Operation "Dawn", photo: IDF spokesman
Hamas stood on the other side
As for Hamas: although it can be assumed that it will be accused by the Islamic Jihad of standing by and not coming to the defense of its people, even in the face of Israel's "cruel and criminal aggression", but the mistakes made by the Jihad and the economic relief that Hamas will ask from the Egyptian mediators for the citizens of the Gaza Strip will help him to justify his choice.
It is to be hoped that the mediation efforts of the Egyptians and the Qataris will not lead to an absurd situation, in which Hamas will still emerge victorious from this round.
The picture of the situation at this time establishes an optimistic assessment regarding the achievement of the operation's goals.
The emphasis in this sentence is on the words "at this time", in view of the risks inherent in the continuation of the fighting and the many scenarios that could lead to a change in the current balance.
This is a considerable challenge for the security forces to preserve the achievement and prevent a reversal of the trend.
An IDF tank during the "Dawn" operation, photo: IDF spokesperson
The Israelis are tired of wars
A final note, which has a special meaning today - Tisha B'av - concerns the behavior of society in Israel.
It is no secret that our enemies, whoever they are, continue to hold to the concept formulated by Nasrallah in his Spider's Web speech from May 2000. They see Israeli society as conflicted, spoiled, tired of wars and lacking the resilience required to withstand difficult struggles.
From this they draw encouragement and hope.
The behavior of the public, the spirit of the people and their united stand in Operation Dawn is also an answer to this.
The sense of unity that exists within us is stronger than all internal divisions.
Cohesion, solidarity and mutual guarantee are the hallmarks of our people.
Essential for ensuring our national resilience and our ability to withstand additional tests that reality may call upon us.
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Meir Ben Shabat is a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Tel Aviv University, served as a national security advisor and head of the National Security Council between 2017-2021. Before that, he served as the head of the Shin Bet's southern region and held other positions at the top of the organization
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