Although the three-day military exercise around Taiwan announced by Chinese officials on the night of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has ended, the possibility of escalation in the Taiwan Strait has not diminished in the slightest.
On the one hand, the PLA's Eastern Theater Command's actual combat-oriented joint training continued on the 2nd. On August 5th, additional military exercises and live ammunition in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea were added. Countermeasures by the Chinese mainland against Taiwan and the United States were intensively introduced, including: The meeting of the Sino-US military security consultation mechanism has been cancelled. On the other hand, it is still unknown what action the US will take, which has not yet taken actual action. Whether the USS Ronald Reagan will pass through the Taiwan Strait has also become the key to observing changes in the situation.
Focusing on the current situation in the Taiwan Strait and possible future trends, a reporter from Hong Kong 01 interviewed Shi Yinhong, a professor at the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China.
In Shi Yinhong's view,
the mainland's military deterrence and actual combat preparations against Taiwan have been greatly escalated this time, especially the tight encirclement of Taiwan Island in all directions, including part of the 12-nautical-mile airspace and waters, crossing the "strait center line", which has never been done before. passed.
However, while strengthening military pressure and deterrence against Taiwan, it is also doing its best to prevent direct military confrontation and conflict between China and the United States. However, the interactive military confrontation and escalation between China and the United States will obviously continue.
Shi Yinhong is a professor at the School of International Relations, Renmin University of China.
(Photo provided by CCG)
It is impossible for Taiwan to be wrong to the United States
"Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has escalated the situation, and China's response has escalated again. The USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier is likely to be near the island of Taiwan, and may even pass through the Taiwan Strait, and China will also take a firm response. That is to say, the escalation of confrontation is inevitable. , but the possibility of direct conflict is still low." Shi Yinhong said.
In addition to preventing a military conflict between China and the United States as much as possible, China has taken strong countermeasures against the United States.
After the announcement of sanctions on Pelosi and her immediate family on the 5th, it announced the cancellation or suspension of at least eight cooperation between China and the United States, including: canceling the arrangement of the leaders of the two military theater leaders; Meeting of the Military Security Consultation Mechanism; suspension of Sino-US cooperation in illegal immigration repatriation; suspension of Sino-US cooperation in criminal judicial assistance; suspension of Sino-US cooperation in combating transnational crimes; suspension of Sino-US cooperation in drug control;
In this regard, Shi Yinhong said, "The most important thing about China's announced sanctions against the United States is to end the suspension of all military communications with the United States, and to suspend all cooperation with the United States that is of great significance to the United States and the world, especially the suspension of China. U.S. climate change talks. In other words, all channels for China and the U.S. to prevent crises and conflicts are temporarily cut off. As for sanctions against Pelosi and her immediate family, it is a normal diplomatic response.” Based on this,
Shi Yinhong disagreed The outside world generally analyzes "Taiwan is not beautiful", because "Taiwan is not beautiful, you can do this at one stage, but it is impossible to become a normal state."
The situation is sliding towards the "fourth Taiwan Strait crisis"
After Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, mainland China has adopted a military exercise that is different from the previous island closure.
According to the summary of the official account "Yuyuan Tantian", the PLA's first all-element military operation around Taiwan includes at least ten breakthroughs, including: the navy is close to the coastline of Taiwan; the air force overlooks the coastline and the central mountain range of Taiwan; the first conventional missile Crossing Taiwan Island; J-20 participating in military exercises against Taiwan; completely breaking the narrative and fantasy of the "strait center line"; the closest exercise to Taiwan Island, in which the southwest area is only about 20 kilometers away from Taiwan Island; For the first time, the actual combat shooting range was set up in the eastern part of Taiwan Island, and the back road was closed.
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In the face of such military exercises, the outside world has described the "fourth Taiwan Strait crisis", and from the perspective of the PLA's deterrence, public opinion generally believes that it has surpassed the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis.
But Shi Yinhong believes that "this time is close to a crisis, but it has not yet constituted the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis." Specifically, there are three currently recognized Taiwan Strait crises. , the third time was in 1996, that is to say, events that contained a large element of Sino-US military confrontation and a high possibility of Sino-US military conflict were called the Taiwan Strait Crisis.
This time has not yet reached the Taiwan Strait crisis, and whether it will become the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis is now more and more likely.
If the probability of conflict originally was 1%, now it is 10%, or even higher.
"It's interactive, not unilateral, and it's hard to predict exactly what consequences each party's actions will have."
The new Cold War is more dangerous than the US-Soviet Cold War
In August 2020, although there has not been a strife in the Taiwan Strait, Shi Yinhong said frankly in an exclusive interview with a reporter from "Hong Kong 01", "Looking back at the Sino-US relationship that has developed since 1979, it can be said that it is a 'Cold War formation'. There is no doubt that China and the United States are entering a new Cold War. In the past month or two, some Western researchers believe that China and the United States have entered a new Cold War, and that "the risk of war has increased sharply." This judgment may It's a bit too much, but overall, it's the most conservative statement that China and the United States are entering a new Cold War."
As the situation in the Taiwan Strait took a turn for the worse with Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, Shi Yinhong said that
"a new Cold War has begun, and it is more dangerous than the US-Soviet Cold War, or there are many signs that it is becoming more dangerous than the US-Soviet Cold War."
Although China The United States has so far maintained relative restraint and avoided conflicts, because "China and the United States cannot show their cards, nor can they show their cards," but in Shi Yinhong's view, China, the United States, and Taiwan are all changing the status quo. In the past, and after this turmoil, the United States will take the Taiwan issue more seriously, and it will become more serious about preparing for war with China, just as China is preparing for war with the United States.
As for how the military confrontation fluctuated this time, "It is impossible to exercise every day, it is so tense every day."
Japanese charge relatively low-key in former South Korea
In addition to China, the United States and Taiwan, the attitudes of China's neighboring countries, especially Japan and South Korea, have also attracted widespread attention.
On August 5, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida invited Pelosi to have breakfast at the Prime Minister's residence, and then delivered a speech to the media, condemning China's launch of missiles around the Taiwan Strait.
Immediately afterwards, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi pointed out that 5 of the 9 missiles launched by the People's Liberation Army in the direction of Taiwan fell into the "Japan Exclusive Economic Zone" for the first time. File a claim with China.
On August 4, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who was attending an ASEAN meeting in Cambodia, canceled a meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Lin Fangzheng to express his dissatisfaction with a statement issued by the Group of Seven (G7) including Japan on tensions in Taiwan. .
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (front row, third from left) and her congressional delegation take a group photo with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (front row, third from right) before a breakfast meeting at the Prime Minister's Residence in Tokyo, Japan, on August 5, 2022.
(AP)
Regarding Japan's eagerness and pioneering role in the Taiwan Strait issue, Shi Yinhong said,
"Japan has not only completely destroyed the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations, that is, the bottom line of the Taiwan issue, but also if there is a war in the Taiwan Strait, Japan will cooperate with the United States on a large-scale military Intervention is becoming Japan's basic national policy."
Unlike Japan's charge ahead, South Korea is relatively low-key.
When Pelosi visited South Korea, South Korean President Yoon Sek-yue was unable to meet with him due to vacation, and the two spoke on the phone for 40 minutes, but did not talk about the Taiwan Strait issue.
South Korea's deputy national security adviser Kim Tae-hyo told the media that Yin Xiyue promised Pelosi on the phone that he would work closely with the U.S. Congress on the development of a global strategic alliance between the United States and South Korea.
On the 8th, South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin started his first visit to China since taking office.
It is reported that the South Korean side has been discussing whether to join the so-called "chip quadrilateral alliance" led by the United States. The South Korean foreign ministry has said that it will take diplomatic efforts to avoid misunderstandings by the Chinese side and communicate with the Chinese side.
Regarding South Korea's low profile, Shi Yinhong specifically mentioned his remarks when the then South Korean President Moon Jae-in visited Washington on May 21, 2021.
At that time, Moon Jae-in told reporters after the South Korea-U.S. summit that South Korea and the U.S. would be committed to addressing issues related to regional stability, such as maintaining freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
"Yin Xiyue has said this once or twice after he came to power, but his public remarks and actions have stopped there. There is nothing more serious." Overall, "South Korea is more negative towards China than in the past, but compared with Japan, it is still more serious. There is a great distance."
As for Russia, which is still trapped by the Ukrainian war situation, Shi Yinhong said that the relationship between Russia and China and the United States is so bad, so basically they are bound together. It is inevitable, but China is also very clear that this is a last resort. In other words, China will never form military alliances with other countries.
"There must be a Sino-Russian strategic partnership of coordination, but after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China has become more cautious strategically, diplomatically."
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