Military expert outlines China plan: Taiwan invasion "would only be the last step"
Created: 08/08/2022, 11:52 am
By: Michelle Brey
Photo released by China's Xinhua News Agency shows the Taiwanese frigate Lan Yang at sea seen from the deck of a Chinese military ship during a military exercise.
(Archive image) © Lin Jian/Xinhua/AP/dpa
Beijing will continue military exercises on Monday.
Will there be an invasion of Taiwan in the near future?
An expert outlines how China could proceed.
Munich/Beijing/Taipei - Nancy Pelosi traveled to Taiwan on Tuesday (2 August) - despite all warnings from China.
The Democrat is the highest-ranking US politician to visit the island in 25 years.
Beijing regards Taiwan as a breakaway province.
China has been trying to isolate the democratic island state for years.
Last but not least, the leadership in Beijing is threatening to “reunite” Taiwan with the mainland, if necessary by force.
Read here how the conflict with China came about.
US House of Representatives Speaker Pelosi pledged US support for Taiwan.
Shortly after the US politician landed in Taipei, Beijing announced “targeted military action” in response.
Military maneuvers around Taiwan followed – including rocket launches.
Taipei accused China of an attack simulation.
Will China invade in the near future?
Last but not least, Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine had fueled fears that Beijing might take a similar approach to dealings with Taiwan.
Taiwan conflict: Expert describes China's maneuvers as "a kind of stress test"
Beijing did not "spontaneously decide" on the military maneuvers, according to Taiwanese military researcher Lin Yung-yin in an interview with
Der Spiegel
.
"The plan for this should have been decided in the spring," he said.
Even then, in April 2022 and presumably against the background of the smoldering Ukraine war, Pelosi wanted to visit Taiwan.
The project failed due to an infection with the corona virus.
However, Lin apparently does not expect an invasion of China any time soon.
"I believe that one day the Chinese armed forces want to be able to do this." That is one of the motives for the military exercises.
Another goal is to monitor the reactions of Taiwan, the US and Japan.
“China is looking very closely at what Japan is doing at the moment.
In this respect, the maneuvers are also a test, a kind of stress test," the researcher explained his view to the newspaper.
However, there is initially no sign of de-escalation.
Originally, the Chinese leadership around President Xi Jinping had announced that the maneuvers would be completed by Sunday (August 7).
A formal end was initially not communicated.
However, China will allow the exercises to continue on Monday.
Some Chinese commentators said the military drills are happening regularly and could become a new normal.
Taiwan conflict: China's disinformation campaign as the start of an invasion?
A possible attack on the island nation, Lin said, would involve missiles, "the deployment of ships in the South China Sea" and the air force.
"The goal would be a complete naval and air blockade of the island," he said, looking at the scenario.
However, it would all start with a cyber attack.
The first signs of this would already be there.
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The Taiwanese website was temporarily paralyzed by cyber attacks apparently launched from China and Russia.
In an interview with
Der Spiegel
, Lin reported attacks on the websites of Taiwan's defense and foreign ministries.
Business systems were also attacked to display Chinese propaganda messages on monitors.
"We would have to reckon with similar hacking attacks in the event of an actual attack," said Lin.
He considers a disinformation campaign to be “even more dangerous than what rockets, ships and planes could do”.
The aim is to panic and put pressure on the Taiwanese government.
“The invasion would only be the last step.
In truth, Beijing wants Taiwan to give up before they even land,” he told
Der Spiegel.
Similar to Ukraine, however, Taiwan is also ready "to fight and save our country," he said.
He has no doubts about that.
"That there will be no war in the first place": Taiwan conflict comes to a head
But does the small island state stand a chance against the highly armed China?
In terms of armed forces, Taiwan cannot compete with the People's Liberation Army of China, Lin said.
Taiwan is therefore relying on an “asymmetrical strategy” in the event of a Chinese invasion.
However, you have to be able to defend yourself beforehand.
It needs small weapons, like Stinger missiles, but on F-16 jets or about submarines.
However, Taiwan's mission must be "to prevent war from happening in the first place".
The Ukraine war should at least have shown China what happens when you invade a country if you are not welcomed with open arms but with massive resistance.
However, an expert in international politics and ethics looks a little further.
What would be the significance of an escalating conflict between Taiwan and China?
In an interview with
FR.de
from
IPPEN.MEDIA
, Alexander Görlach said
: "
China's ambitions go beyond Taiwan." (mbr with dpa)
