The transitional government led by Yair Lapid passed the "dawn" test in Gaza with flying colors, but cannot afford even one minute to relax.
The next test, apparently much more difficult and complicated, is waiting around the corner towards the third week of next month - when, as planned, drilling will begin at the Harish gas rig off the coast of Lebanon.
Hassan Nasrallah's threats to damage the rig if Lebanon's "all rights" in the field of gas production were not guaranteed, led to the acceleration of contacts between Israel and Lebanon through the American mediator, in an effort to conclude an agreement on the demarcation of the maritime border between them even before drilling began.
climbed a tall tree.
Nasrallah, photo: AFP
The mediator, Amos Hochstein, was in Lebanon last week, and from there he skipped to Israel.
All parties are expressing optimism, but not absolute confidence that in this short time it will be possible to reach a signing in Rosh Hankara.
And as if to increase the pressure, a source close to Hezbollah said yesterday that although his organization is "not involved" in the negotiations and leaves it to the representatives of the Lebanese government, it will not be satisfied with reports only about the agreement being formed, and will insist on "seeing the final paper" before giving its approval.
The Greeks, the co-owners of the rig who tried to find out from Hezbollah if Nasrallah was indeed serious in his threats, were told that it would be best if they simply moved the rig away from the site, since "we cannot guarantee what will happen."
In the latest reports from Lebanon, it was stated that the American mediator informed his interlocutors there that "Israel does not intend under any circumstances to submit to Nasrallah's blackmail".
But this does not mean that his threats are taken lightly here.
The American broker Hochstein, photo: AFP
The Defense Cabinet held a discussion on the issue last week with the participation of senior members of the defense establishment, and it is clear to all that Hezbollah is in no way similar to Islamic Jihad: not in the huge amount of rockets it possesses (more than 100,000, according to the commander of the Revolutionary Guards from last week), not in ranges, not in level The accuracy of some of them and not in other areas, such as campaign management and chain of command.
Nasrallah's adventure
On the face of it, there are at least two reasons that should deter Nasrallah from embarking on a military adventure against Israel.
One - his public status in Lebanon which is at the bottom of the ladder.
On social media, he is accused of being solely responsible for the destruction of the country and the terrible suffering of millions of citizens who are struggling to survive: "We want to produce gas, not for it to drag us into another war with Israel."
The other reason is related to the conclusion that he should have drawn from the patterns of the IDF's activity in Operation Dawn, and especially from the dramatic improvement in the performance of the Iron Dome and the precise intelligence, which allowed Israel to eliminate the organization's senior officials. Thus, for example, it is said in Gaza that the Southern Brigadier General who was eliminated, Khaled Mansour, did not believe that they would reach him because he was hiding inside a building located deep in the refugee camp in Rafah, and was surrounded on all sides by other buildings.
The point is that no one can be sure that Nasrallah has indeed learned the double lesson, and will be doubly careful not to repeat the concept that led him in 2006 to the war with Israel and the demolition of the Da'aheh neighborhood in Beirut.
In his latest threats he has already climbed a fairly high tree and he may think, mistakenly, that his shots at the Shark rig will only end in a limited confrontation with Israel, at the end of which, like the Islamic Jihad in Gaza, he will claim victory.
This is probably the next test of the Lapid government.
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