The real focus of the PLA's exercise against Taiwan is whether it can be normalized. If it is just a one-time exercise, it only focuses on "shock and deterrence" and "warning". Frankly speaking, the effect will be relatively limited; In the future, it can be carried out on a regular basis, and it will be staged every year, or it will be staged from time to time when it is deemed necessary (such as the occurrence of US-Taiwan arms sales or the visit of dignitaries from other countries), then Taiwan's troubles, Tsai Ing-wen's troubles will be big .
In this exercise, the People's Liberation Army has brought its naval and air forces to within 12 nautical miles around Taiwan, and the nearest straight-line distance is only 6 nautical miles. If Taiwan is compared to a sweet potato, it means that the skin of the sweet potato has already been peeled off, and Taiwan has no combat. depth.
If such drills are performed frequently in the future, one is that the PLA can turn the drills into combat operations at any time, and the island of Taiwan will face great defensive pressure. The main military and political leaders of Taiwan must always guard against the possible beheading operations initiated by the PLA, and they are worried all day long and can’t sleep. Stability, one is Taiwan's economy, which will be severely damaged.
On August 7, the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army continued to conduct practical joint exercises in the sea and airspace around Taiwan Island as planned, focusing on testing the capabilities of joint firepower to ground strikes and long-range air strikes.
(People's Daily)
Taiwan is a typical export-oriented economy. Various resources are in short supply. Energy, raw materials and manufactured products are heavily dependent on imports and exports. If this is done frequently, the normal economic operation of Taiwan will be disrupted. Due to risks and supply chain stability Considering that foreign investment and trading partners will also reconsider their business layout, it is almost impossible for Taiwan's economy to prosper and stabilize in the long run.
Therefore, in terms of just one exercise, the impact on Taiwan is actually relatively limited.
Looking at Taiwanese officials, especially the main officials of Tsai Ing-wen's government, their performance was relatively low-key this time.
The same is true in the United States.
But on the other hand, the United States and Taiwan are very nervous now. Why are they nervous?
It is whether the tense exercises will become normalized.
The White House has made it clear.
Frankly speaking, if we really use force in the Taiwan Strait now, it will be simpler for the United States and Taiwan. The conservative forces in the United States with a radical stance on China are now eager for a war between China and the United States or between the two sides of the strait. They hope that a war will destroy China’s more than 40 years of reforms. The achievements of opening up, and the mobilization of the "new cold war" against China in the West has completely isolated China.
They are afraid of this kind of "encirclement without fighting", and they will be trapped and defended.
In this way, the initiative of "war" and "harmony" is seized by the Chinese mainland, and the mainland has not "unilaterally changed the status quo in the Taiwan Strait". The islands controlled by Taiwan are still islands controlled by Taiwan. As long as the PLA does not act, the United States will not If France intervenes, neither Europe nor Japan can intervene. Europe, America and Japan can only protest verbally.
However, if it is necessary, or if Taiwan cannot bear to take the initiative, or if the PLA is driven away, the PLA exercise may be transformed into a military operation at any time.
In this case, whether it is Taiwan, Europe, the United States or Japan, you can't blame mainland China. Beijing will say that it is not the mainland that "but it is convenient to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait." ".
Moreover, the United States is far away from Taiwan after all, and it cannot always deploy heavy troops around Taiwan. It really has to make a move. The PLA ships and aircraft are so close to Taiwan that even if the United States and Japan rush to help, it will be too late.
By the time the American and Japanese aid personnel arrived, the People's Liberation Army would have landed on the island to control the situation.
If the United States and Japan want to replicate the practice of supporting the Zelensky government in Ukraine, and if they want to find an aid recipient in Taiwan, they will have to organize and receive aid. Will the DPP still have this capability?
I'm afraid it's enough.
The picture shows a photo of the U.S. aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan posted on its Facebook page on June 1, 2022.
(USS Leigen Facebook page)
The PLA's move created a "gray zone" between military and non-military, putting the US and Taiwan in a dilemma, giving the opponent no reason to start a full-scale war immediately, and placing the responsibility for the escalation of the conflict on the opponent. For the Taiwan regime, there are sufficient legal justifications for this blockade.
——This conclusion is very reasonable. The only thing that mainland China should pay attention to is the resulting economic cost. Under the background that the economy cannot develop at a high speed for a long time in the future, how to take care of the domestic economy and people's livelihood while making an international layout, It will be quite a challenge.
Therefore, the United States and Taiwan are actually quite nervous about whether the Chinese mainland will normalize this exercise.
Why does the White House say that it will continue to observe whether the PLA's Taiwan-locking exercises will become normal, and it also said that in a few weeks, it will continue to pass through the Taiwan Strait by sea and air, because it is afraid of such a situation.
As for whether mainland China will normalize such exercises, it depends on the follow-up response of the United States and Taiwan, as well as whether mainland China can withstand such consumption and its own needs and courage.
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