Military Experts Assess Taiwan Situation: “Start of Decade of Maximum Danger”

Created: 2022-08-09 17:51

Nanjing: China held unprecedented military exercises in response to the visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (file image, August 4, 2022).

© IMAGO/Liu Fang/ Xinhua

Military experts see the current Taiwan crisis as a "test run for emergencies".

The world could be at the beginning of a “decade of maximum danger”.

Taipei - In the past, China has made threatening gestures toward Taiwan, from planes entering Taiwanese airspace to outright threats of war from the defense minister.

It is not for nothing that

magazine dubbed Taiwan the “most dangerous place in the world”.

China responded to the visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi with military exercises on an unprecedented scale.

The conflict could turn into a crisis more dangerous than the Ukraine war.

China threatens Taiwan: That's behind it

The Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, insisted on traveling to Taiwan on Tuesday and Wednesday last week (August 2nd and 3rd).

This made her the highest-ranking US representative to visit the island in 25 years.

The government in Beijing, which sees Taiwan as part of Chinese territory, reacted angrily to the visit.

China halted cooperation with the US in important areas such as climate protection and defense over Pelosi's visit, and on Tuesday held numerous military maneuvers off the coast of Taiwan for the fifth straight day.

Because Beijing interpreted the trip as a violation of the so-called "One China Policy", according to which there is only one Chinese state and other countries cannot maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

The United States, meanwhile, sees itself as Taiwan's protecting power, but at the same time is pursuing a strategy of ambiguity.

Background to the Taiwan Crisis

Taiwan has been under its own administration since 1949.

In the Chinese civil war, the nationalist Kuomintang were defeated by the communists under Mao Zedong - and withdrew to the island of Taiwan.

Taiwan sees itself as independent, for China the island is a "breakaway province" - Beijing also sees itself threatened by the democratic structures in Taiwan.

However, the actual legal status of Taiwan is considered controversial, and only a few countries around the world recognize Taiwan's independence.

These include the Vatican State, the Marshall Islands, Honduras and St. Lucia.

For Xi Jinping, "reunification" with Taiwan is a "historic task."

Taiwan crisis: Are there similarities with Ukraine?

Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has fueled fears that Beijing might adopt a similar approach to Vladimir Putin's in its dealings with Taiwan.

Experts believe that this is realistic, especially since the legal status of Taiwan - unlike Ukraine - is not clear.

Russia has already indicated that it is on the Chinese side - and sees similarities with the "Ukrainian situation".

US Pacific Command commander Philip Davidson said as early as 2021 that China could attempt to take Taiwan "within the next six years."

Military experts are correspondingly concerned about the current situation.

For example, Sun Shao-cheng, an Asia expert at the US military academy The Citadel, feels reminded of the 1996 Taiwan crisis.

“But the current maneuvers are far more aggressive.

The crisis will not end in a few days, the People's Liberation Army will do more," the expert reported as reported by

.

You can currently see a test run for emergencies.

According to the Taiwanese Defense Ministry, a total of 68 Chinese fighter jets and 13 warships crossed the unofficial sea border between China and Taiwan on Friday alone on the second day of the maneuvers.

Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported that Chinese missiles had flown over Taiwan's capital, Taipei.

Before the start of the Ukraine war, Putin had only spoken of military maneuvers.

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China's target practice showed that the [US] policy of ambiguity is reaching its limits, Sun Shao-cheng said.

The aim of this show of force would be to prove that the leadership in Beijing can block Taiwan's air and sea access and cut off supplies from potential supporters such as the United States or Japan.

China and Taiwan: That's what the conflict is about

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The strait between China and Taiwan is one of the busiest in the world.

A blockade or even an invasion would also have drastic consequences for the world economy.

The resulting supply chain problems could even exceed those of the corona pandemic.

Because Taiwan is the most important semiconductor producer in the world, this technology can also be found in Germany in almost every electronic device - the car industry in particular is already suffering from the lack of chips.

However, China is an important location for the production of electronic devices.

Taiwan crisis: how dangerous is the current situation?

Since China claims to use live ammunition during military maneuvers, unintentional hits are conceivable and thus a direct escalation of the conflict.

In principle, US military strategist Eric Chan, for example, sees medium-term dangers.

The senior strategist of the US Air Force was surprised by Chinese President Xi Jinping's willingness to take risks.

"Nevertheless, he does not take any completely wild risks," said the strategist, according to the

.

"For him, it's a matter of life and death." In a defeat, China would not only lose Taiwan.

Jinping would also jeopardize communist rule itself, Chan said.

Because Taiwan is proof that a Chinese population can live freely in a democratic system and at the same time be economically successful.

But the military expert considers an invasion too early to be less likely.

On the one hand, the current maneuvers are large, but so far only symbolic, says Chan.

On the other hand, they are so intense that a continuation would weaken the military readiness of the Chinese.

"If they want to continue these maneuvers, the People's Liberation Army would have to build up personnel," said the military strategist, as reported by the

reported.

Before being appointed president for life in November, Xi needs more stability in the country.

In the long term, however, China could have an interest in ousting the USA from the western Pacific.

It is now a question of deterrence, says Chan, because he no longer sees any hope of convincing China through talks.

There are efforts by numerous states to network regionally and to form alliances such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) or the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF).

But the strategist is certain: "We are at the beginning of a decade of maximum danger"

.