Taiwan after Pelosi visit - military mistakes could "start a terrible spiral of violence"

Created: 08/09/2022 05:31

From: China.Table

Nancy Pelosi with her delegation in Taipei: Firm diplomacy at the wrong time?

© Sam Yeh/afp

Troubled times loom after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

In an interview with China.Table, China expert Angela Stanzel warns of an escalation due to military errors.

• In an interview, China expert Angela Stanzel explains why she thinks visits like Pelosi's are basically right, but the timing in this case is unfortunate.

• Tensions in the region have risen, which could have serious consequences if military mistakes are made.

• This article is 

  available to IPPEN.MEDIA

   as part of a cooperation with the 

  China.Table Professional Briefing -

  China.Table

   first published it 

   on August 4, 2022 - at the beginning of the Chinese military exercises around Taiwan.

Berlin - The political scientist Angela Stanzel, China expert at the Foundation for Science and Politics in Berlin, supports the Pelosi trip in principle: Such visits sent a clear signal that the USA remains firmly on Taiwan's side.

Nevertheless, she also sees the action as a "PR show" for Pelosi, which could still have consequences in the event of a fatal mistake by the military.

Nancy Pelosi has traveled to Taiwan despite serious concerns from the US government, while China has made massive threats of military force.

Did someone overshoot the mark?

No, I don't see it that way.

There is no ban on US politicians traveling to Taiwan.

And it's not the first time the US House of Representatives has made such a trip.

What can be criticized is the timing of Pelosi's trip.

In what way?

Xi Jinping is currently under enormous domestic political pressure: the Chinese economy is only growing slowly, and Xi wants to start a third term as president in the fall.

So Pelosi could have chosen another, better point in time that would not have triggered such a crisis. 

I didn't mean Pelosi either, but China's behavior: the threat of military force to the point of statements that China's military should simply shoot down Nancy Pelosi's plane.

This is indeed going too far.

Without doubt.

But it must also be said that the statement by the former editor-in-chief of the

does not necessarily reflect the view of the government in Beijing.

The Chinese leadership obviously does not want a military escalation, let alone simply shoot down an American plane.  

China and Taiwan: danger of war

China expert Angela Stanzel © Private

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What is the risk of a war over Taiwan?

First of all, unfortunately, it has to be said that the situation has worsened.

China is massing troops and has announced military maneuvers.

All of this is of course not good.

But I don't see the danger of war.

Neither China nor America wants that.

It just sounds very different from what you're hearing from Beijing at the moment

.

It's correct.

But let's not look at the words, but at the deeds.

And they indicate that Beijing is speculating that reunification with Taiwan can be achieved before 2049 without a military invasion.

What are these actions?

Threats and attempts at intimidation remain.

Basically, Beijing wants to isolate Taiwan internationally.

Cyber ​​attacks are carried out, misinformation is spread, and economic dependence is increased.

And yet the military is concentrated on the coast of Taiwan.

Does that have no consequences?

Hopefully.

Because even if you don't want war, the danger of an unwanted incident increases enormously.

A wrong decision, an accidentally fired shot, can set off a terrible cycle of violence.

The risk of an unwanted military escalation has increased.

China-Taiwan conflict: Germany is also threatened with "serious consequences"

It is noteworthy that in the run-up to the visit, China's threats were aimed at Pelosi and the US.

China's "punishment" for the visit, on the other hand, is aimed at Taiwan...

… I agree.

This is typical Chinese behavior.

Beijing always goes for the supposedly weakest player.

You're trying to set an example.

China is doing the same in Europe – against Sweden, Lithuania and Norway.

How serious are China's punitive measures against Taiwan? 

The economic pressure continues to grow.

And that has consequences for us.

Sand is needed in the construction industry worldwide.

In the field of semiconductors, Germany has just chosen Taiwan as the largest alternative semiconductor manufacturer for German industry.

If China's leaders actually took action against Taiwan's chips industry, it would have serious consequences for us and the global supply chains.

With all of this, the question arises as to how meaningful Ms. Pelosi's visit actually was.

With Pelosi, two levels are indeed mixed here.

On the one hand, Taiwan has always been important to Pelosi.

You should give her that too.

Then again, it was also a PR show for Pelosi.

The Democrats are under enormous pressure ahead of the midterm elections, Pelosi's own political future is more than uncertain.

She is also concerned with leaving a political footprint. 

So in the future it would be better not to have politicians travel to Taiwan anymore?

no

Basically, such visits make sense.

They send a clear signal that the US remains firmly on Taiwan's side.

This visit has also given Taiwan a morale boost.

In addition, other countries in Asia are being shown that they can rely on US support.

And all of this is of course also a sign to China.

Politician visits to Taiwan: avoiding symbolic politics

So what should be different next time so that the trip doesn't degenerate into a PR show?

It would make more sense to coordinate such visits with the allies.

It would have a completely different impact if, after US politicians had visited, European or German politicians would also fly to Taiwan.

Speaking of allies: Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and the German Ambassador

It is timely because it is a reaction to China's increasingly vocal behavior, including here in Europe, if I only think of the example of Lithuania.

China's wolf-war behavior is becoming more and more apparent to the world, especially when it comes to Taiwan.

So far, Germany's policy has been: if there is

Yes, the days of quiet diplomacy with China are over.

That failed.

Germany and China: Quiet diplomacy failed

What are the consequences for German-Chinese relations?

It's bad right now and will likely get worse.

There are currently hardly any opportunities to have an open and constructive exchange.

So I don't think we're putting too much at risk with this new behavior.

Time for a new Taiwan policy?

Not quite.

Because Germany should make one point clear: Berlin is sticking to the agreements with Beijing, the red line "One China" is being kept very clearly.

Rather, it is Beijing that has changed the status quo of Taiwan.

Because this status quo means that we have exchanges with Taiwan, including visits from politicians.

This agreement with China led to the German Economics Minister Günter Rexrodt traveling to Taiwan in 1997.

So there is plenty of scope to intensify ties with Taiwan without crossing the agreed red line.

China needs to be reminded of that.

So, after Nancy Pelosi, should Annalena Baerbock travel to Taiwan?

Why not?

It doesn't have to be the foreign minister, of course, but we should intensify exchanges with Taiwan again.

It's not just about visits.

A mutual investment agreement between Germany and Taiwan would be one possibility.

And internationally, you have to get Taiwan out of its isolation and integrate it more into international organizations again.

Especially in times of a global corona pandemic, we should give Taiwan observer status again in the World Health Organization.

The interview was conducted by Michael Radunski

For many years, Michael Radunski

reported on politics, business, culture and sport from India and China.

His stay in China's capital, Beijing, had a particularly strong impact on him.

Before his long stay in Asia, Michael Radunski worked for the

, where he worked on the newspaper's online presence, among other things.

Radunski recently returned to Germany and works as an editor for the

.

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