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Bundesnetzagentur: Model calculations show how gas emergencies can be prevented

2022-08-10T07:51:18.949Z


Bundesnetzagentur: Model calculations show how gas emergencies can be prevented Created: 08/10/2022 09:37 By: Lisa Mayerhofer According to the Federal Network Agency, a shortage of gas in the coming winter is still avoidable, even if no more Russian natural gas flows to Germany. The model calculations at a glance. Berlin – The Federal Network Agency considers it possible, under certain conditi


Bundesnetzagentur: Model calculations show how gas emergencies can be prevented

Created: 08/10/2022 09:37

By: Lisa Mayerhofer

According to the Federal Network Agency, a shortage of gas in the coming winter is still avoidable, even if no more Russian natural gas flows to Germany.

The model calculations at a glance.

Berlin – The Federal Network Agency considers it possible, under certain conditions, that a gas emergency can be avoided in the coming winter.

This emerges from the agency's latest catalog of scenarios, which was published on Monday.

Federal Network Agency: Consumers must save at least 20 percent

But to do this, the Germans will probably have to save significantly more energy.

The head of the authorities, Klaus Müller, said that the reduction in gas supplies from Russia to just 20 percent of the agreed volume means that the shortage can only be prevented in two best-case scenarios.

"For these scenarios, however, consumers must save at least 20 percent - that is, much more than before," he told

Welt am Sonntag

.

"In all other scenarios, there is already a risk of a gas shortage in December or we will have low storage levels at the end of the coming heating period."

Federal Network Agency boss considers "savings measures for private households to be legitimate"

In addition to savings, the transmission of gas to neighboring countries would also have to be reduced by 20 percent, and 10 to 15 gigawatt hours of gas from other countries would also be needed.

"If we don't save a lot and don't get any additional gas, we'll have a problem," said Müller.

In the event of a gas shortage, private households are not protected from prescribed restrictions.

It is also conceivable to only allow individual rooms to be heated.

"I don't want to speculate about anything because we're still having these discussions," said Müller.

"But I want to make it clear: In order to secure jobs, I consider austerity measures for private households to be legitimate, as long as they do not affect the protected, vital area."

The Federal Network Agency used three variants for the model calculations - with a supply from the Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 1 of zero percent, 20 percent and 40 percent.

The authority then describes the necessary measures for each variant until June 2023 so that the gas supply can continue to be guaranteed.

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Model calculations for the gas crisis: Nord Stream 1 is only 20 percent utilized

In one variant, Nord Stream 1 is only ever used at 20 percent of its maximum capacity, as is currently the case.

According to the Federal Network Agency, in order to prevent a gas shortage in the coming winter, in addition to a 20 percent reduction in consumption, a 20 percent reduction in transit volumes to neighboring countries will be necessary (see figure).

How is the gas supply developing?

A model calculation by the Federal Network Agency – Variant: Nord Stream 1 at 20 percent © Federal Network Agency

If the German gas storage facilities are also to be 40 percent full by February 1st and the supply is to be secured for next winter, the model also means that import capacities for liquefied natural gas, for example, must be increased.

According to the federal government, the first LNG terminals should go into operation as early as next winter.

Model calculations for the gas crisis: Nord Stream 1 is 40 percent utilized

The next variant shows that, according to the Federal Network Agency, saving energy is also a positive factor.

With a utilization of 40 percent at Nord Stream 1, the Germans should also reduce their gas consumption by about 20 percent to prevent a gas shortage (see figure).

How is the gas supply developing?

A model calculation by the Federal Network Agency – Variant: Nord Stream 1 at 40 percent © Federal Network Agency

Model calculations for the gas crisis: What happens if no more Russian gas comes?

After all, even assuming that no more Russian natural gas flows to Germany, according to the Federal Network Agency, a shortage in the coming winter is still avoidable.

However, the transit volumes would have to be further reduced if there were no increase in imports.

In all zero percent scenarios, however, there will be supply problems next winter 23/24 without additional countermeasures such as higher consumption reductions.

How is the gas supply developing?

A model calculation by the Federal Network Agency – Variant: Nord Stream 1 at zero percent © Federal Network Agency

In the event of a so-called gas shortage, demand exceeds supply.

After proclaiming the highest level of danger in the gas emergency plan, according to the existing rules, the Federal Network Agency would then allocate the natural gas still available according to need.

(lma/dpa)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-08-10

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