At about 3:00 p.m. local time on August 9, more than a dozen explosions lasting nearly half an hour came from the Saky Air Force Base in Crimea, which has fallen into the hands of Russia since 2014, circulating on the Internet. The video shows thick smoke rising from the area.
Recently, the Ukrainian side has concentrated its counter-offensive against Russia in Kherson, which is more than 200 kilometers away from the Saki airbase. Many people immediately believed that this was caused by the Ukrainian attack.
As early as mid-July, Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president and now the deputy chairman of the Federal Security Council, warned that if a foreign country launched an attack on Crimea, there would be a "judgment day" response.
Russia does not recognize Ukrainian but secretly recognizes
For this series of explosions, the reaction of both Russia and Ukraine did not exceed the expectations of the outside world.
The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the explosion was caused by the detonation of several air force ammunition depots, and there were no signs of attack and no damage to aviation equipment.
Russian media quoted sources as saying that "violations of fire protection requirements" were the main cause of the explosion.
Just like the previous statement about the withdrawal of troops on Snake Island, which "successfully retreated", the Russian side, as expected, denied that this was an attack by Ukraine.
Ukraine, as in the past several bombings on Russian soil, is also reluctant to publicly admit responsibility (to avoid the aforementioned "Judgment Day" consequences).
Asked if Ukraine was responsible for the blast, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, told Russian network Dozhd: "Of course not."
Demilitarization of the Russian Federation — an integral part of global security ensuring. The future of the Crimea is to be a pearl of the Black Sea, a national park with unique nature and a world resort. Not a military base for terrorists. It is just the beginning.
— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) August 9, 2022
However, he tweeted on Twitter that "the demilitarization of the Russian Federation" is crucial to global security, saying "the future of Crimea is a pearl of the Black Sea, a place with a unique natural environment and a world-class A national park for a resort, not a military base for terrorists, this is just the beginning."
This "this" seems to imply that the Uzbek side is behind the explosion.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who also did not admit responsibility, declared on the same day that the war against Russia "started with Crimea and must end with Crimea".
People can only understand what this remark means.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense also took to Facebook and Twitter to remind people, half-jokingly, to abide by the fire safety rules and no-smoking orders in some unknown places in Crimea. (press: Crimea is the Black Sea resort for Russians).
Why attack targets 200 kilometers away?
On the other hand, an unnamed Ukrainian official admitted responsibility to the New York Times, saying that the Saki Air Force Base was the take-off site of the Southern Theater Command’s attack on Ukrainian military planes, but did not specify what weapons the Ukrainian side could use to attack this remote Ukrainian-controlled air base. Targets over 200 kilometers away from the area, only that the weapons used were self-made by the Uzbek side.
This "blank" aroused a lot of speculation in the military critics about the "secret weapon" of the Ukrainian army.
🇷🇺💥🇺🇦It seems that the Saky air base in Crimea has been hit by something.
Many questions, more than anything because it is more than 200 km from the front. pic.twitter.com/j3tuId7wNo
— TPYXA ⚡ Middle East 🇸🇩 🇮🇷 (@MEPaper1090) August 9, 2022
At present, Ukraine has at least 16 U.S.-made "HIMARS" multiple rocket launchers. In recent months, its attacks on the Russian military's rear ammunition depots and other locations seem to slow down the Russian military's offensive in Donbass.
Although Haimas can launch surface-to-surface missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers (called "ATACMS"), the United States has not supplied such missiles to Ukraine, only allowing Ukraine's Haimas to use six-round missiles with a range of 80 kilometers at a time .
Other similar artillery, such as the French Caesar (CAESAR) self-propelled artillery, or the American M777 howitzer, the range is even less than Haimas.
Therefore, if the explosion at Saki airbase is indeed the work of the Ukrainian side, it is probably not an artillery attack from Ukraine.
(Of course, there is speculation that the attack shows that the U.S. is sending these far longer-range missiles to Ukraine.)
In addition, some people speculate whether Ukraine has used the "Harpoon" anti-ship missile donated by the United States and Denmark, and then enhanced its original range of nearly 140 kilometers to shoot it at the Russian air base in Crimea. .
At the same time, Ukraine itself does have the "Neptune" anti-ship missile with a reported range of 280 kilometers, which was used to sink the flagship "Moskva" of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in April this year.
However, some comments questioned Ukraine's ability to reliably use anti-ship missiles on land targets.
Satellite image of Saki Air Force Base before the explosion.
(AP)
At the same time, Ukraine itself has a series of short-range ballistic missile development plans in recent years, including various titles such as "Hrim-2", "Sapsan", and the range is said to reach 400 to 500 kilometers.
However, these weapons have never been tested.
If the attack on the Saki Air Force Base is indeed done by the Ukrainian side, it seems to mean that the weapons developed by Ukraine have been upgraded.
However, the most likely possibility is that Ukraine still has an organization behind enemy lines in Crimea, which has been under Russian rule for eight years, and uses the modified ultra-cheap drones commonly used in Ukraine to carry explosives to attack.
Such attacks are common on Russian soil near the Russian island border, and it is possible that the same tactic has now been applied to Crimea.
Incredible footage of what is said to be a Kamikaze attack by Ukrainian loitering munition on Novoshakhtinsky oil refinery in Rostov region, Russia. #Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/AE3Oi9Df2h
— BlueSauron 👁️ (@Blue_Sauron) June 22, 2022
But whether Ukraine is attacking with missiles at a distance or with local underground groups in Crimea, it shows Russia's weakness.
If the former is true, it will prove that Russia's "anti-access/area denial" (A2/AD) air defense capabilities, which NATO allies have feared for many years, are actually far less powerful than expected; if the latter is true, this also shows that Eight years after Russia's strict control, the pro-Ukraine opposition can still carry out powerful anti-Russian actions, and the effectiveness of its governance is self-evident.
Amid the suspicion of an attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of recently, the pro-Russian leader of Zaporizhzhia, which has largely fallen after the war, has announced that he is preparing for the "referendum on accession to Russia". Kherson, who was beside Zaporozhye, believed that he was not immune.
The outside world has been worried that if these areas are put into Russia, Ukraine will lose these territories permanently, just like it lost Crimea in 2014. After all, how can Ukraine dare to attack Russian territory?
This may be one of the main reasons why Russia is eager to implement a "referendum on accession to Russia" when the Ukrainian counter-offensive on the front line of Kherson intensifies.
This Ukrainian attack on Crimea (suspected) is to refute this assumption, and at the same time test the falsehood of Russia's "Judgment Day"-style response.
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