The grain corridor in the Black Sea opens a door of hope in the face of the food crisis

The eyes of half the world rested during the past week on the voyage of the

.

In the slow and careful navigation of this Sierra Leonean-flagged merchant ship through the mined waters of the Ukraine in the Black Sea.

On her arrival in Istanbul, but also on her journey through the Bosphorus Strait, or on her way out to the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas.

She was not for less: she was the first bulk carrier to weigh anchor in the port of Odessa since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February.

And, above all, it was the first operational test of the naval corridor to transport Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, as agreed by kyiv and Moscow with the mediation of Turkey and the UN on July 22.

Other merchants have already followed in her wake.

There is a lot at stake: for Ukraine it means reopening the main export route for its agricultural production and being able to straighten out its public finances, battered by the war effort.

For Ukrainian farmers, it is essential to release the more than 20 million tons of grain blocked by the war to make room for the new harvest.

It will also be "a relief for developing countries, on the verge of bankruptcy, and for the most vulnerable population, on the verge of famine", underlined the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres.

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Last minute of the war in Ukraine, live

was scheduled to arrive

on Tuesday loaded with 26,000 tons of corn – although it finally went to a Turkish port due to a disagreement with the buying company – is one of those countries that hope for some relief.

According to the UN, eight out of ten Lebanese live below the poverty line, after years of political instability, an increasingly acute economic crisis and the explosion in the port of Beirut two years ago, which, among other things, destroyed some silos with a storage capacity of 120,000 tons of grain, planned for times of scarcity.

A quarter of the wheat, a third of the corn and more than half of the sunflower oil that Lebanon consumes come from Ukraine, so the Russian invasion and the consequent blockade of the Black Sea ports (where 75% of the Ukrainian exports) have been a severe blow to the Levantine country.

The Lebanese economist Roy Badaro believes that the implementation of the grain corridor "will help" the country: "[It] increases supply," he adds.

Not in vain, 20 ships like the

they would cover Lebanon's annual maize imports, and the same goes for wheat.

However, Badaro complains about the distribution.

"Instead of helping the poorest, the Lebanese government subsidizes companies that dominate production monopolies and whose behavior is practically mafia, with which both rich and poor buy bread at the same subsidized price," Badaro denounces.

“5% or 10% of the population can buy everything, including caviar, and at least 40% cannot even afford to buy bread,” he says.

Food or medicine

The situation is dire in Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, Yemen, Somalia and is also worrying in Sudan, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, all of them countries that have faced conflict or political instability in the last decade, are heavily affected by droughts and highly dependent on grain import from Ukraine and Russia.

“The situation in the Middle East is very serious.

In Iria and Lebanon we have documented cases of families having to skip meals or having to choose between buying food or medicine,” says Samah Hadid of the Norwegian Refugee Council.

And he adds: "Millions of people, not only in the Middle East, but also in other vulnerable areas of the world, count on the resumption of Ukrainian grain exports to survive."

Before the war, Ukraine, one of the world's breadbaskets, produced food for some 400 million people and used to export a third of its production to Europe, and the rest to Africa and Asia.

Since last February 24, its exports to these last two continents have been reduced to zero.

Will the Black Sea corridor be able to alleviate this situation?

The idea behind the initiative agreed in Istanbul is that, in addition to bringing grain to needy countries, the release of the grain blocked in Ukraine by the war puts downward pressure on global food prices.

Since the negotiations on the corridor were made public, the prices of wheat and corn have fallen progressively to the levels of February, although an analysis by the

International Crisis Group attributes part of the drop to fears of a new global recession .

“Before the war, food prices were already rising alarmingly.

What is most needed now is to stabilize markets and prices, which are still very volatile and, in the Middle East and North Africa, are still at record highs," explains Abeer Etefa, spokesperson for the World Food Program (WFP) for the region.

Even for this UN agency, the rise in food prices is making its aid programs difficult, as costs have risen by 44% and contributions have been reduced.

The WFP estimates that some 276 million people were facing acute hunger at the beginning of the year and that, due to the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine, this figure will increase by another 47 million during 2022. “Open seaports Black is a very positive step,

The insurance problem

In total, a dozen ships have left Ukraine loaded with more than 375,000 tons of corn, soybeans, oil and sunflower meal.

After the

, a three-ship convoy departed on Friday in what the Istanbul Joint Coordination Center (JCC) - which oversees this mechanism and in which Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN are represented - defined as a "second test” to “allow more efficient transit and ensure the safety of ships.”

Since Sunday, departures have continued, at a rate of between two and four ships a day.

In the designated ports for the departure of grain - Odessa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhni - there are still 16 bulk carriers ready to leave.

Since these are merchant ships that were trapped in Ukraine at the outbreak of the war, they will go to the “predefined” ports before the conflict;

those that have set sail after the

are headed for ports in Turkey, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Italy, China and South Korea.

A source from the Coordination Center explains to this newspaper that it is "necessary" for these ships to leave "to free up space."

The merchant ship 'Razoni', the first to leave Odesa loaded with corn, after its arrival in Istanbul, on August 3.

DPA via Europa Press (DPA via Europa Press)

The first commercial ship to enter Ukrainian Black Sea ports since the start of the Russian invasion was the

, a small freighter (14,000 tons) operated by a Turkish shipping company, which passed inspection in Istanbul on Friday and docked in Chornomorsk on Sunday.

These inspections, required by Russia, are intended to prevent ships from bringing weapons to Ukraine or removing from there any product not covered by the July 22 agreement (which only allows food and fertilizer).

The UN has announced that it will charter a ship to take 30,000 tons of grain out of Ukraine through the corridor, but apart from that ship, the export will depend on private initiative, the CCC source acknowledged.

This poses a problem: the price of navigation insurance in the Black Sea has multiplied by up to 200 because of the war.

It is not a problem for freighters leaving Ukraine - which have their pre-war premiums in force -,

The UN has agreed with the main maritime insurance market, Lloyd's of London, a fund of almost 50 million euros through the Ascot company, but a European shipowner interested in sending its freighters to Ukraine explains that this line is only available to secure the cargo and not the vessels or the crews.

“We have been asking for several days and no company has wanted to insure our ships.

For them to start insuring, Lloyd's should first publish instructions on how to proceed.

But that has not happened yet, ”says the shipowner, who requests anonymity.

When the corridor is fully operational, expected in the coming weeks, it will be able to transport three million tons of grain per month, that is, three times what is leaving Ukraine by land and through the Danube ports.

However, it would be insufficient to remove all the grain blocked in the Ukrainian silos during the term of the agreement: 120 days.

The mechanism can be extended, but for this the yes of all the parties is necessary.

kyiv has expressed doubts about the Kremlin's willingness to respect the corridor: just a day after signing the deal, Russia bombed the port of Odessa.

However, Moscow also has an interest in it.

Although the agreement signed by Russia with Turkey and the UN is kept secret, due to the public statements of those involved it is assumed that it includes facilities for the export of fertilizers.

Two days before the signing in Istanbul, the EU modified its list of sanctions, allowing some Russian banks to use their frozen funds in Europe to trade these products.

It is a key agreement not only for Moscow, but also for farmers around the planet: up to 20% of fertilizers are of Russian production, and without their use, the harvest can be reduced by half.

Professor Ray Offenheiser, director of the US Pulte Institute for Global Development and former president of Oxfam America, warns that even with the corridor running, the situation remains extremely serious.

Data from the Ukrainian Cereal Association warns that this year's harvest will decrease by 35% to 69 million tons of grain, and the occupation of Ukrainian territory by Russian forces has reduced the area by about 20%. arable, which will reduce future harvests.

"The question is whether other markets can fill that deficit quickly," argues Offenheiser, who warns: "We have global inflation, extremely high oil prices, which makes everything more expensive, including food shipping, and, in addition, supply chain problems.

A perfect storm.

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