A compromise on the maritime border will not neutralize Nasrallah Israel today

A Syrian ship recently left the port of Tripoli in Lebanon.

The authorities allowed her to leave after Ukraine claimed she was carrying stolen goods.

The ship "Laudicia" was anchored in the port for almost a whole week and carried 10,000 tons of flour, wheat and barley.

In Ukraine they claimed that the grain was stolen by Russia, which obviously denied the accusations.

However, the judicial system approved her departure, claiming that an investigation ruled out the possibility that the goods were stolen.

Thus the ship sailed towards Syria.

The ship of the dispute that could complicate Lebanon with Ukraine, photo: AFP

A parable for self-destruction

This affair could endanger one of the main import routes to Lebanon.

The land of cedars is the main victim of the increase in prices in the world, which increased against the background of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February.

The agreement between Moscow and Kiev on the export of goods is a bright spot, but the weakening of relations with Ukraine could turn out to be fatal for Lebanon.

At least the situation in the country was not alarming.

The collapse of the grain silos in the port of Beirut, precisely on the second anniversary of the disaster, were evidence of this.

Recently, ceremonies were held in memory of the 218 victims of the explosion, which also left thousands injured and a lot of destruction.

But the Lebanese corruption is so entrenched that the politicians who were invited to the investigation in connection with the case of storing the explosive material in the port, refused to cooperate.

The commission of inquiry itself was repeatedly rejected.

Video of the moment of the fall more from the voice #الاهراء #انفجار_مرفأ_بيروت pic.twitter.com/MriqbNkc2F

— mary saadeh🇱🇧 (@marysaadeh19) August 4, 2022

The collapse of the grain silos in the port of Beirut.

The crisis is worsening, photo: IPA

Unfortunately for them, the politicians in Lebanon found a spin for them: the renewal of the negotiations on the maritime border with Israel. The arrival of a shark rig in the reservoir a few weeks ago also alerted Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, who launched an onslaught of speeches as if the parliamentary elections were not over.

Despite this, according to the leaks from Beirut, the spin worked and the proposal put forward by the American mediator from Jerusalem included a significant retreat from the original Israeli position, the one that draws the border at a more northerly angle.

And as if that wasn't enough, officials in Beirut claimed that Israel had also given up all of the Qana field, a potential gas area.

Memorial ceremony for the disaster in Beirut.

Two years since the explosion, photo: AFP

The apparent extreme compromise stems from a fear of a limited confrontation with Hezbollah, which may incorrectly assess Israel's response to its provocations.

However, here it should be noted that in Lebanon they will probably be disappointed even if they accept the entire Qana field and the drawing of the maritime border according to line 23 - a considerable political achievement, which Hezbollah will ride on.

First, because there is a great chance that the searches will turn up nothing, as happened in the past in the waters of Lebanon.

Second, because such drilling takes years, while the Lebanese need quick solutions to overcome hunger in the country.

And thirdly, because Lebanese corruption is so entrenched that even if Beirut sees profits in a short time, they will be sucked into the politicians' salary pit.

Hezbollah operatives this week hold up a banner with a picture of a drone and the caption: "We have the ability", photo: Reuters

Therefore, even if Israel decides on a compromise - it is very doubtful if the immediate threat from the north will pass.

At most, it will be delayed by only a few months.

In fact, Nasrallah is already looking for another excuse.

"We heard that the Israelis are planning to eliminate senior Palestinian officials. If this happens in Lebanon - every attack will be met with a response," he said in a speech in Beirut at the end of the Ashuraa' days.

In other words, even with a gas deal, it seems that Nasrallah will look for another opportunity for conflict to escape the wrath of the Lebanese. 

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