"Gloomy" prospects: Thousands of people could lose their jobs this year
Created: 08/11/2022, 12:14 p.m
By: Helena Gries, Moritz Serif, Nail Akkoyun
The EU gas emergency plan has come into force.
In winter, 15 percent of natural gas should be saved voluntarily.
The IW makes a forecast.
Ukraine war:
Gas deliveries from Russia to Europe have already been drastically reduced.
Gas emergency plan:
The countries of the EU have agreed to reduce their gas consumption by 15 percent.
Energy crisis:
Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck (Greens) appeals to Germany to save gas.
Update from Thursday, August 11, 12:00 p.m .:
The Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW) has warned of the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs and double-digit inflation rates due to high gas prices.
In a study published on Thursday (August 11), the researchers simulated the consequences for the labor market and the economy if the gas price rose by 50 percent in the third quarter compared to the second quarter and if it doubled.
The basic assumption is the consequences of the Ukraine war, especially the energy crisis.
Since then, Russia has drastically reduced its raw material supplies, which is why importers have to buy expensive alternatives to be able to service the contracts.
At the same time, Germany and the other EU countries are striving to reduce their dependence on Russian energy supplies, which is associated with high costs anyway.
Due to the energy crisis, 30,000 people could lose their jobs this year alone.
(symbol photo) © Elmar Gubisch/Imago
The IW team warned that the results of the simulated developments are "dark" prospects.
If gas prices rise by 50 percent, the inflation rate should increase by 0.9 percentage points on average for the year and by 1.3 percentage points next year.
If gas prices doubled, which is currently a "realistic" scenario, inflation would rise by a point this year and nearly four percentage points next year.
Energy crisis: 30,000 people could lose their jobs this year
Most recently, inflation, driven by the energy crisis, was 7.5 percent in July.
Food became more expensive by almost 15 percent.
At the same time, inflation was slowed down by government measures such as the nine-euro ticket.
According to IW calculations, if gas prices double, 30,000 people could lose their jobs this year.
In this scenario, 307,000 people could be affected next year.
The IW also calculated the consequences for gross domestic product if gas prices doubled in the third quarter from July to September: the German economy could then shrink by 0.2 percent this year and then collapse by two percent in the coming year.
This corresponds to a loss of 70 billion euros.
The IW points out that the effects of production outages in the event of a stop in gas deliveries are not even taken into account in the calculations.
"That would trigger additional high price shocks in the value chains," explained study author Thomas Obst.
Many experts are currently still expecting an upswing in the coming year, however: "But it is possible that nothing will come of it."
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Energy crisis: Chancellor Scholz optimistic - "If things go well, we can do it"
Update from Wednesday, August 10, 9 p.m.:
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), despite the problems with the energy supply, has expressed confidence that Germany can overcome a gas crisis.
"We decided early on.
We are preparing for the fact that things can get very bad,” said Scholz at a constituency meeting in front of around 150 citizens on Wednesday evening (August 10) in Michendorf, Brandenburg.
With a view to the event that Germany no longer gets gas, the Chancellor said: "That's why we have made very, very far-reaching decisions that are now helping to make it hairy and tight, but we have a chance to get through this." difficult situation to get through.”
Scholz named the construction of pipelines on the north German coasts, the construction of liquid gas terminals and the filling of gas storage facilities as examples of measures taken by the federal government.
Several measures should help to get through this difficult phase.
“If things go well, we can do it too.” In view of the high energy prices, Scholz assured that he would relieve the population and referred to the federal government’s relief packages that had already been decided.
Energy crisis: CDU politician Haselhoff calls for co-determination — network agency disagrees
+++ 15.57:
Saxony-Anhalt's Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff (CDU) calls for more participation by the states in the distribution in view of a possible gas shortage.
At the moment, the responsibility lies with the Federal Network Agency if the situation worsens.
"It can't be that alone, it has to be accompanied politically." From his point of view, the internal knowledge of the countries about chains and strategic dependencies of the economy plays an important role.
Federal Network Agency boss Klaus Müller said on Tuesday in the ZDF morning magazine that he believes that the federal states are sufficiently involved in the development of the emergency plans.
You were involved in the gas crisis team right from the start, and the network agency is happy to accept suggestions and criticism, said Müller.
Transparency is important, but action must be taken quickly in crisis situations.
The Ukraine War in Pictures - Destruction, Resistance and Hope
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Energy crisis: IG Metall warns of the consequences of gas savings
+++ 1.35 p.m .:
With a view to the colder season, IG Metall warns of very specific consequences of possible gas savings for employees.
These must be protected against health risks at low temperatures at the workplace, said board member Hans-Jürgen Urban.
"Lowering the room temperature below the minimum limit of 20 degrees in office work would increase the risk of infection and colds in the company, which would lead to more days lost and increased costs for the company."
Proper preparation for a possible gas shortage is still being discussed in Germany.
Several federal states insist on having more say in the creation of emergency plans.
The debate about the gas levy is also continuing.
The corresponding ordinance for the levy came into force on Tuesday.
Starting in the autumn, it will lead to price increases for gas customers and enable gas suppliers to pass on additional costs to consumers.
Gas emergency plan in force: Germany must drastically reduce gas consumption
First report, August 9th:
Brussels – The EU's gas emergency plan to prepare for a possible stop in Russian natural gas supplies has come into force.
After its publication in the Official Journal of the EU on Monday (8 August), the plan came into effect on Tuesday.
The regulation calls for voluntary natural gas savings of 15 percent per country from early August to March next year, compared to the average for the past five years of this period.
Against the background of the war in Ukraine, Russia has already drastically reduced its supplies to the EU.
According to figures from the EU Commission, a total of 45 billion cubic meters of gas must be saved.
Germany would have to use about 10 billion cubic meters less gas to reach the 15 percent target.
Energy crisis: Germany will probably have to save significantly more gas
How the 27 EU countries lower their demand is up to them.
The regulation provides for numerous exceptions for states and “critical sectors of the economy” such as the food industry.
It is unclear whether the planned savings target of a total of 45 billion cubic meters of gas can be achieved.
The exceptions mean that Germany will probably have to save significantly more gas than other countries this winter in order to avoid massive problems for the industry or even a recession in the event of a possible Russian gas supply stop.
That was what Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck (Greens) said after the agreement on the gas emergency plan at the end of July in Brussels.
If not enough is saved and there are far-reaching supply bottlenecks, the next step can be to trigger an EU-wide alarm with binding savings targets.
However, the hurdle for this is high: the approval of at least 15 EU countries, which together make up at least 65 percent of the total population of the Union, would be necessary.
At the same time, several countries - such as Spain and Italy - have negotiated exceptions to the binding savings targets for this case and want to save less than 15 percent.
The emergency plan is initially valid for one year.
(hg/mes/nak with dpa/AFP)
