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Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 1:
Since 2011, Russian natural gas has been flowing through the long-distance gas pipeline to Germany
Photo: Jens Büttner / dpa
According to a recent study, there is good and bad news in the debate about the gas shortage in Germany and the forthcoming heating costs in winter.
The good news from the paper by the economic research institute "ECONtribute": "We will survive the winter without Russian gas. There is no reason to panic," says
Moritz Kuhn
, professor and member of the Faculty of Economics at the University of Bonn.
The bad news: "We can only do it if we act accordingly now," says the scientist.
Kuhn and his research team agree that the German economy could absorb an immediate halt to Russian gas supplies if it were supported by politicians with the right economic policy measures.
"If Russian gas imports are stopped, there is neither a risk of mass poverty nor of popular uprisings, but of production losses that Germany has already dealt with in the past when it had to face crises," said Kuhn.
The Federal Republic must reduce its gas consumption in the coming heating period by about 25 percent.
"One could have reacted in the spring with adjustment measures and economic policy measures," says Kuhn, so that there would have been more time overall to save and replace gas in power generation, building heating and industry.
Kuhn likes to describe the current situation as a view of the end of a traffic jam.
"We race towards it at a decent speed. But our car has good brakes, which we have to use in good time," said Kuhn.
The time to slow down was already in March, now you have to step on the brake pedal a little harder to avoid a serious accident.
Gas alternatives are showing up in the chemical industry
There is now significantly less time than in the spring for saving measures and replacing natural gas and natural gas-intensive products.
According to the research team, it is difficult to estimate how many companies have made the sometimes expensive investments in alternatives without the corresponding political regulations.
"However, it has been shown that the view that no gas substitution is possible at all within six months was wrong," says Kuhn.
In the meantime there would be numerous examples of alternatives, also in the chemical industry and glass production.
Among them, many large companies, such as BASF, showed that it was possible to at least partially replace gas.
In addition to industry, private households are one of the most important factors.
Because the heating of buildings accounts for the majority of gas consumption in the winter months in Germany.
Efforts to save would therefore have a particularly strong impact here.
"A realistically achievable savings by households and businesses is around 15 percent of their own consumption," says Kuhn.
When heating, this corresponds to a reduction in room temperature of up to 2.5 degrees Celsius.
Additional measures such as thermal insulation could increase the effect.
However, Kuhn already sees problems in these measures.
"We are currently appealing too much to the citizens and not letting the economic price mechanism work," says Kuhn.
"Households are willing and able to save energy," says the scientist.
"We are currently discussing too much about the distribution effect of the measures and are thus already at the second step without even having taken the first one," said Kuhn.
Economic policy measures necessary
Economic policy measures that create direct economic incentives to save gas are necessary.
The researchers propose a credit that relieves all gas consumers, but at the same time creates an incentive to save on gas consumption through high gas prices.
But the trade must also contribute to saving heating energy, for example by working from home or changing shop opening times.
"Gas has been so cheap for us over the past few years that a certain convenience has developed and we now need to provide incentives and information for consumers to understand how expensive gas has become and be quick to think about how and how much they heat ", says Kuhn.
Kuhn is certain that it is still possible to reduce gas consumption by almost a quarter for the coming heating season.
The economic costs of the loss of Russian gas supplies remained similar to those of an energy embargo in the spring.
The research team led by the ECONtribute researcher assumes in its calculations that the German gas storage facilities should be 20 percent full at all times in order to have a buffer for a cold winter or further supply interruptions.
In order to achieve this, Germany would have to reduce its gas consumption by around 25 percent by the end of the coming heating period - even if the new liquid gas terminals go into operation as planned in winter and gas is imported from third countries.
Lignite and hard coal push the gas gap to 20 percent
Alternative energy sources, such as lignite and hard coal, would currently offer an alternative despite the climate aspect - but according to the study, their use would still leave a gas gap of just under 20 percent, which industry, trade, households and the public sector must save.
"Wirtschaftswise"
Veronika Grimm
(50) also spoke out in favor of a longer service life for German nuclear power plants.
The stretching operation of the nuclear power plants should be considered very comprehensively, said the economist.
The nuclear power plants should continue to be left in operation as a kind of security for the coming years in order to have leeway.
In the past few weeks, the calls for an extension of the service life have become louder and louder.
Proponents point to the reduced Russian gas supplies and call for a reduction in the use of gas-fired power plants along with the nuclear power plants.
However, the nuclear power plant operator RWE is still reticent about a possible extension of the lifetime of German nuclear power plants.
"We are waiting for the political decision," said RWE boss
Markus Krebber
(49) on Thursday.
Kuhn sees a glimmer of hope with regard to the ability of politics to act.
"Progress in the construction of new liquefied gas terminals and the significant drop in the proportion of Russian gas imported has shown that politicians can act on the supply of gas. Action must now be taken on the demand side," said Kuhn.
ECONtribute is an economic research association of the German Excellence Initiative.
The cluster is a joint project of the Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn and the University of Cologne.
The aim of the research cluster is to examine markets in the area of tension between business, politics and society.
The research results should be introduced into the public debate in politics and society.