Recently, due to the visit of the US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, the People's Liberation Army's naval exercises in Taiwan, and China's release of the white paper titled "The Taiwan Issue and China's Unification in the New Era", the Taiwan issue has been hotly debated again. Many Chinese are very concerned about why this time If Taiwan can be reunified by force, when will it be possible to reunify Taiwan? Will force be used? Is there any hope for peaceful reunification?
If there is any consensus among the people in mainland China today, apart from reform and opening up, reunification of Taiwan should be one of the biggest consensus.
Whether it is to wash away the national humiliation since the Opium War in modern times, to let the cross-strait unify to prove the rejuvenation of the nation, or to the simple feelings of compatriots and nationalities for a long time, the unification of Taiwan has an extremely broad consensus in mainland China.
The difference is when to unify, peacefully or by force.
Since the separation of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait in 1949, mainland people have longed for the reunification of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait for decades.
In the eyes of the vast majority of mainlanders, Taiwan is the family of the Chinese nation who has been snatched away and separated from their own flesh and blood, and there will eventually be a day when their relatives will be reunited.
Many mainlanders are disappointed that they failed to take advantage of Pelosi's visit to unify Taiwan this time.
From a military point of view, "soldiers are tricksters" and pay attention to "attack unprepared and surprise them."
Even if it is a last resort, the mainland's best strategy should definitely be a surprise attack. The United States has no time to take care of it), and the army dispatched lightningly to control the situation in the shortest possible time. How could it be possible to rashly use force when both the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party and the US government were on high alert when Pelosi visited Taiwan?
"Sun Tzu's Art of War" has already said it clearly: "If you don't want to do anything, you have to use it, and you don't fight unless you are in danger.
The Lord can't be angry and raise his army, and the general can't be sulky and go to war. It's good to move, but it's not good to stop. Anger can be brought back to joy, anger can be brought back to joy, a fallen country cannot be revived, and the dead cannot be brought back to life.
Therefore, a wise ruler is careful, and a good general warns him. This is the way to secure the country and the entire army.”
White Paper on Taiwan | Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The DPP authorities' provocation of independence will only accelerate their own destruction. Tian Feilong: How to read the third white paper on the Taiwan issue?
｜Experts have something to say about the Taiwan Navy exercise｜The white paper on the Taiwan issue is released after 22 years: non-peaceful means are the last choice
In terms of the timing of reunification, although the PLA now has obvious advantages over the US military in the Taiwan Strait, it has no absolute certainty, and it is uncertain whether Japan and other US allies in Asia will intervene militarily.
In the worst case, the PLA is surrounded by the US military and its allies, and the consequences are unimaginable. The mainland will be mired in a quagmire, repeating the mistakes of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, the United States in Vietnam and Afghanistan, and the country’s fortunes since the reform and opening up may be reversed.
Even if the worst-case scenario does not occur and the United States gives up military intervention, under the current situation, it will inevitably be obstructed by the military under the control of the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party. Even if the People's Liberation Army finally defeats the Taiwanese army and completes the reunification, the cost of governance will be extremely high, which will outweigh the gains.
Just a small place with a population of more than 7 million, Hong Kong, is so difficult to govern, let alone a Taiwan whose population and area are much larger than Hong Kong, and the situation is far more complicated than Hong Kong?
Just the February 28 Incident that occurred during the Chiang Kai-shek government's governance of Taiwan after the end of World War II has been liquidated by Taiwanese society for decades, and it has continued to this day. Not to mention today's era when the awareness of the right to life and human rights is stronger than that of the past, once the armed forces are unified. The sad tragedy of a large number of casualties in the process of Taiwan is bound to bring great resistance to the governance work after reunification.
Times have changed. For today's world, war and casualties are more and more unacceptable.
The era of reunification by force to stabilize order after reunification with iron and blood is gone forever, and it does not conform to the values of the Chinese people. .
On August 7, the PLA's Eastern Theater Command continued to conduct practical joint exercises in the sea and airspace around Taiwan Island as planned.
This is a fighter formation flying.
(Xinhua News Agency)
Strong melons are not sweet. Instead of taking great risks and rushing to raise troops, it is better to wait for the opportunity, accumulate strength, and do our best to strive for peaceful reunification while maintaining force to deter Taiwan independence, or at least defeat the enemy without fighting.
The so-called "the upper armies attack the plot, the second is to attack the Jiao, the second is to attack the soldiers, and the lower to attack the city."
For the mainland, the preparation time is more sufficient, the military strength is stronger, and the chance of reunifying Taiwan is greater.
With the continuous growth of the mainland's comprehensive economic strength and the enhancement of military combat capabilities represented by aircraft carriers in recent years, the PLA's military advantages in the southeast coast will continue to increase, and the deterrence of the US military and Taiwan independence will become greater and greater.
Of course, no matter the strong military deterrence or the preparation for unification by force, they are all for the most powerful deterrence and warning of Taiwan independence.
To a certain extent, the more fully prepared the military reunification, the greater the military deterrent, and the closer the distance to reunification.
But even so, unless it's a last resort, Wutong's preparations should be for peace.
From the perspective of Chinese national sentiment, Taiwanese are still the flesh and blood compatriots of the Chinese. Until the worst moment of last resort, the Chinese must not hit the Chinese, otherwise the descendants and the hearts of the people will not be able to explain it.
From the perspective of China's overall national situation, the most important thing at the moment is the national rejuvenation and the people's better life that countless Chinese people have been striving for since modern times.
China's national rejuvenation is inseparable from the reunification of Taiwan, but the foundation of China's national rejuvenation can only be built on the rise of the mainland as the main body of the country and the happiness of the people's lives, not on the reunification of Taiwan.
When the mainland rises into the world's largest economy with advanced high technology, no longer being choked by others, people's lives are prosperous, everyone is free, social justice, democracy and the rule of law are sound, human rights are fully guaranteed, and culture is prosperous. With the heartfelt approval and support of the vast majority of the people, they will be able to unite and form the strongest and most lasting healthy force, which will have great appeal and attraction to Taiwanese society. At that time, whether the United States or the DPP The authorities are completely powerless to hinder cross-strait reunification.
And this is the best result of China's comprehensive rise and rejuvenation, the best fate arrangement for the people of the mainland and Taiwan, and the ideal plan pursued by people of insight.
A few months ago, Thomas Friedman, a senior American media person, wrote in an article "In this Ukraine crisis, the United States and NATO are not innocent" published on the Chinese website of the New York Times: "The country and its leaders have The response to humiliation is usually one of two types: aggression or introspection. After experiencing the so-called "hundred years of national humiliation" brought by the West, China's response under Deng Xiaoping can be roughly described as follows: "We must do Show you. We’re going to beat you at your own game.’ When Putin felt humiliated by the West after the collapse of the Soviet Union and NATO expansion, his response was: ‘I’m going to show you. I’m going to beat Ukraine.’”
If people from afar are dissatisfied, then cultivate Wende since then.
Times have changed, and the way of solving problems has also changed. No matter what happened in the past, no matter how reasonable and angry, as long as it is not a last resort, war and casualties are not the way to solve problems that modern society recognizes and pursues.
In today's era, the real kingly way and the way can never be war and force, but only peace, morality, development, and vision based on strength. Rather than being constrained by ways, it is better to solve problems by creating a new world order and vision.
People are realistic most of the time, and they all want to live a good life, and Taiwanese are no exception.
Today, Taiwanese are close to the United States and Japan, not because they are unaware of the damage that Japan and the United States have done to Taiwan in history, but the more fundamental factor is that the United States and Japan are closer to the better life they yearn for.
That being the case, if there is a day when the living standard of mainlanders is no less than that of the people of the United States and Japan, and the comprehensive strength of the mainland is far superior to that of the United States and Japan because the number of people is far greater than that of the United States and Japan, it is believed that national reunification will definitely be attractive to Taiwanese.
Taiwan is an island that cannot be moved. For the mainland, what is most needed now is time. Bismarck said that the state is a boat on the river of time. Time will change everything, and it will give any nation that works hard and adheres to morality a chance to make a comeback.
Let the mainland as the main body of the country become a place where people live and work in peace and contentment, social justice, democracy and the rule of law, and economic development. Once this happens, the Tao will receive more help, and the world will return to its heart.
In a word, it is our greatest responsibility to keep our eyes open, keep a sober and rational mind, and treat all the beneficial experiences of human beings with a learning and transcendental perspective.
Taiwan Navy Exercise｜Many cross-strait warships and PLA warships continue to be seen in the eastern waters near the middle line of the strait. Wang Yi raised "three vigilances" on the new trend of the Taiwan Strait situation.
Lessons from the Russian-Ukrainian War Explain the Third White Paper on Unification Beijing issued the "Taiwan Special Administrative Region" negotiation and then threw the "white paper" on the Taiwan issue after the military exercise The People's Liberation Army has little time for the United States and Taiwan "︱Experts have something to say
