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This is how "Dawn" became the first act since "Cast Lead" from which Israel emerges with a sense of victory - voila! 2022 election

2022-08-12T05:33:42.073Z


About the farewell campaign of the commander of the Gaza division, the wrong bet of the jihad, the assessments of the situation, the crazy intelligence puzzle put together by the Shin Bet and the IDF, the finale of Kochavi and Lapid's composure


This is how "Dawn" became the first act since "Cast Lead" from which Israel emerges with a sense of victory

On the farewell campaign of the commander of the Gaza Division, the wrong bet of Jihad, the assessments of the situation, the crazy intelligence puzzle put together by the Shin Bet and the IDF, the operational precision, the finale of Kochavi and Lapid's composure |

And also: the decision Eisenkot must make, and Netanyahu's problematic primaries

Ben Caspit

12/08/2022

Friday, August 12, 2022, 07:00 Updated: 08:18

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The hanging tree

The commander of the Gaza Division, Brigadier General Nimrod Aloni, is scheduled to finish his post this week. I am not sure that the IDF, or any other army, has a more challenging and explosive role than the responsibility for a besieged, bubbling strip of land controlled by an armed terrorist organization, where the population density is "R" competes only in the density of rockets per person. A place whose residents have almost no electricity, no hope at all, and nothing to lose.



When Aloni took office two years ago, he made a foot trip along the entire border of the Gaza Strip, from north to south. He walked around 30 km every day, sleeping in a tent every night, complete the 110 kilometers in four days.

A kind of tour to get to know the figure, through the legs.

On Monday this week, he began the farewell journey, this time from south to north.

He walked 30 km on the first day and before he closed his eyes for the first night (in a tent), he received the message about the arrest of the head of the Islamic Jihad in Nablus. He did not yet know that in the coming days he would hardly close his eyes. He would no longer complete his farewell journey.



Jihad has been looking for trouble for quite some time now.

Apparently the body of Baha'i Abu al-Ata ("The Baboon") who was foiled in 2019 has finally cooled down.

Ziad Nakhale, the exiled leader of the jihad, repeatedly challenged Hamas and teased Sinwar for selling his soul to the economic benefits and giving up the "resistance".

It was clear to the IDF and Shin Bet intelligence that the jihad was raising its head and looking to change the balance of power in the Gaza Strip.

There was a direct warning related to Jihad even before the arrest in Nablus on Monday, but this is not the time.

The arrest in Nablus released the last restraints that were still holding back the two generals of the Jihad and the head of the organization Nachala, in Tehran. The intoxication of power they fell into confused them. They challenged not only Israel, but also Hamas.

There is no more challenging and explosive role.

Brigadier General Aloni (Photo: Reuven Castro)

Already on Monday night, the fresh alert came in about the anti-tank ambushes placed by the jihad along the border fence, with a clear goal: to look for civilian vehicles and damage them. The intention to harm civilians was a new event. Until that day, the jihad was looking for military targets, which could be To maintain a full civil life routine even on days of notice.

Open roads, tractors in the fields, the IDF on high alert. This time, the direction of the wind has changed. According to the alert, the aim of the anti-tank units of the Jihad is focused on civilian targets.

A children's bus, a civilian vehicle loaded as much as possible, a train carriage.

It was clear to Major General Aloni that he was closing all the open roads and taking no chances. He preferred to be criticized by the media, rather than a children's bus being hit by a Kornet missile. Aloni is willing to gamble, but not on civilian lives, which he is supposed to protect.



The assessment of the situation of the division and the command was complex.

In 2019, on the eve of the "Black Belt" operation (in which Baha'u Abu al-Ata, the commander of the Southern Brigade of Jihad, was thwarted), the ground was ripe. Al-Ata, nicknamed by everyone "the baboon", got on everyone's nerves He lashed out at Hamas on a regular basis, harassed Israel with rockets every Monday and Thursday and forced the IDF to exact a price from Hamas, who simply counted the minutes until Israel dealt with him.

Except for his nuclear family (his wife was killed when he was eliminated), no one in Gaza shed a tear for his passing.



But this time, it looks a little different: Jihad was not active at all in the past year.

On the contrary: Hamas and Jihad established a joint army and experienced a kind of honeymoon. Hamas continued to invest in the rehabilitation of Gaza, raising the standard of living and maintaining peace in the Israeli sector, while Jihad teases senior Hamas officials, but not much more than that. about the rules of the game. This is why Israel gave the various mediators, especially Egypt, a few days to take the jihad off the (own) gallows it had climbed. But the friends Taysir al-Jabari and Khaled Mansour did not understand the hint. Neither did Ziad Nach These, in the distant and (relatively) safe Tehran. They flew on themselves, not knowing that they would soon fly for real.

tweezers treatment

Prime Minister Lapid and Defense Minister Gantz determined that the deadline for efforts to restore order peacefully would be Wednesday.

If by then the jihad does not fold the anti-tank units, the IDF will fold the jihad.

At this stage the deception operation was built.

He also included all the little details.



The army received critical crossfire from all sides and the political echelon was beaten by every zev and leper and especially by the bibist battalions who were infatuated with battle, but Lapid and Gantz remained calm.

As well as Aviv Kochavi, Eliezer Toledano (Command General), Brigadier General Aloni and, of course, Ronan Bar, head of the General Security Service. Their eyes were only on the golden ball: the operational-security leadership of the Islamic Jihad. From Wednesday midnight onwards, the question It wasn't the mother, but when.



On Friday at 16:16 the signal was given.

The Shin Bet brought the golden information about the hiding apartment where Taysir al-Jabari was staying. An Air Force aircraft fired a cluster of smart bombs into it, one leveling the path of the other in a calculated and deadly manner. The operation was commanded by the head of the Shin Bet Ronan Bar and his deputy M., from the Shin Bet's central headquarters, where the 8200 and the IDF's operations wing also sat.



Everyone contributed their part to building this crazy puzzle. In the divisional fire room in Gaza, the tanks were ordered to take up positions and open fire on the IDF's observation posts. Jihad scattered along the line and at the same time an Air Force aircraft took down Abdullah Kadum, one of the senior members of the Jihad's anti-tank system, who left the house on a motorcycle with one of his assistants.

Both were killed.

The four tanks that went up to the position hit the Jihad positions and killed the observers.

Two Magellan teams took down, in the very same minute, two more positions.

It was a resounding opening blow the likes of which the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have not experienced since "

More in Walla!

Loyalty prevailed over Likudism, the second Israel defeated the first, but Netanyahu did not cut the deals

To the full article

Didn't get the hint.

Taysir Jabari (photo: official website, no)

It can be stated with certainty that there is no army today that is capable of carrying out such a move, in which all the different arms are synchronized at once on a considerable number of targets, in a changing reality, with no grip on the ground, and all of this is happening in the most densely populated strip in the world.

The Shin Bet, Modi'in Shin Bet, Amn, 8200, the Air Force, the Operations Division, the Gaza Division, the Southern Command, the Navy, armor, and countless other different and helpful factors, around one goal



. Focusing on the most important operation of thwarting Taysir al-Jabari in a hiding apartment, the divisional fire room holds in the air as drones in a state of readiness to take advantage of additional opportunities (this is how Abdullah Kedom was eliminated) and tanks and Magellan teams complete the picture on the border line, and everything happens within 180 seconds: All the bombs are accurate, all the "stamp" hits and the peripheral damage to those not involved (unfortunately Abdullah's 5-year-old daughter is among the dead) is minimal.



Brigadier General Nimrod Aloni went through difficult times. After the "Guardian of the Walls" the orders were changed in the IDF and the division commander received the full authority to close roads and areas in the perimeter.

Aloni took advantage of this authority, caught a crossfire but did not blink.

"It's part of the service," he told his men.

During the fighting days he worked hard mainly in restraining his men in the divisional fire room and in the field.



One of the goals was to keep Hamas out of the fighting and should not be missed.

One bomb that goes astray and kills a large number of civilians, or injures Hamas members, could disrupt everything.

So is the thwarting of a jihadist who will be accompanied by too many civilian casualties, women, children, etc.

The IDF worked with tweezers. More targets were not hit than they were, for reasons of harm to those not involved. For the first time ever in an IDF operation, more Palestinian civilians were hit by Jihad fire (3 rockets that landed inside populated areas in the Strip) than by IDF fire. To.



If the Jihad had succeeded in dragging Hamas into combat, it could have been considered a great victory for it.

He was "on the rise" as someone who dictates the reality in the Strip.

Bottom line, it didn't happen, and that's a good thing.

Hamas did not shed a tear for the blows that the Jihad took.

In Sanwar's vision, the Strip is free of non-Hamas military forces.

Sanwar wants full control.

What happened in "Dawn" promotes him to this goal, which is not necessarily against the Israeli interest, which prefers a clear and orderly address free of "disobedients" and crazy jihadists.



While deliberating and preparing for the operation, the military echelon told the Defense Minister that if successful, the operation might anchor the warning obtained by the wall guard, stabilize it, return the jihad to its lair and demonstrate to Hamas the strength of Israel.

That's exactly what happened.

in the heavenly storm

The head of the Shin Bet Ronen Bar took office about ten months ago. He did not have many moments of grace. The Shin Bet was caught by surprise by the riots in the cities involved (this happened during the time of his predecessor, Nadav Argaman), Bar himself caught the last wave of attacks, which killed 19 Israelis , five months after he entered the office.

In addition to all of this, politicians, under the leadership of Itamar Ben-Gvir, began to mark the Shin Bet as a potential target.



In the "Dawn" events, the Shin Bet demonstrated incredible intelligence superiority and outstanding capabilities, but it is impossible to separate all of this from Operation "Break Galim" to which the entire security system went with the outbreak of the terrorist wave.

The assault on the West Bank cities, with an emphasis on Jenin and Nablus, the dismantling of the terrorist infrastructure and especially the jihad and the nightly extraction of terrorist operatives from their beds in the most dangerous places in the Middle East, is not self-evident.

There are military personnel who will soon receive a requirement to pay property taxes in Jenin. The same is said for the Shin Bet coordinators.



The effort was not only in the alleys of the Kasbahs and the refugee camps.

It also included intense political activity, led by Bar, against Israel's neighbors and allies.

The goal: to prevent a multi-scene flare-up.

Iran, the core of the driving reactor of the entire move, tried to set fire to the Gaza Strip, Jerusalem, the West Bank and then everything else.

The moves Israel took, both in the most sensitive political contacts (Barr visited many of the capitals of the region for this purpose) and in the field, simply cooled the cluster bomb that was placed on our table like an explosive afikoman last Passover, and prevented a regional intifada on steroids.

Amazing intelligence superiority.

Ronan Bar (Photo: Paul, Mark Israel Salem)

Not only Cairo, Ramallah, Rabat Ammon and other capitals were involved in this process.

Bar, for example, also met with Bedouin sheikhs in the Negev, when it seemed that the Islamic State was raising its head among Israeli Arabs.

And at the top of the joy, of course, the Temple Mount.

It required extremely sensitive micro-tactics, which also included security coordination at the highest levels, to prevent the demon from breaking the bottle and getting out.

Israel used overflowing baskets of sticks and carrots and mobilized all the calming agents available on the ground, in order to calm down.

It worked.



The opening stroke of "Dawn" was a kind of catharsis for everything described here.

The coordination between the different intelligence arms was perfect and at the moment of truth everyone huddled in front of the screens at the Shin Bet headquarters and watched what was happening. It was necessary to know exactly which apartment Al Jabari was hiding in. It was necessary to know who lived in all the apartments on the floor, and on the floors above and below it. It was necessary to plan the The way to cause maximum damage in the room the wanted person is in and minimum damage around him.A bomb whose job is to knock down the first wall, so that the second bomb can kill Al Jabari.



Let's jump to the guard of the walls for a moment: in the operation (which some consider a failure) to eliminate part of the Hamas metro system under Gaza City, Israel thwarted the defensive tunnels as an option for a place of refuge in an emergency.

This was supposed to be the death trap for hundreds of senior Hamas officials, but it didn't happen.

What did happen was my mind: the terrorist leaders in the Gaza Strip realized that the IDF had mapped their entire network of defensive tunnels and was capable of bringing them down on their heads at any given moment. This forced the Jihad leaders to change their strategy and move into hiding apartments. The logic was simple: underground the Jews They know how to get to us. We'll find apartments in crowded towers, among citizens, we'll change them frequently, and they won't be able to catch us.

mental success.

Fighters in Operation "Guardian of the Walls" (photo: IDF spokesman)

Well, this strategy went up a storm along with Al Jabri and his counterpart, Mansoor Khaled.

In Jihad (and also in Hamas) you leave the "dawn" with a clear feeling that there is nowhere to run.

The Shin Bet will find them underground, above the ground, everywhere, and the Air Force will know how to fit the exact bomb that will transport them as quickly as possible to the next world.



To reach such levels of intelligence, you need to use all types of measures, Yumint and Sigint and a few more, to use intelligence sources internal intimates and doing all this without having a physical foot on the ground itself. This is an art. What wonder that the opening blow made the jihad "groggy" for long hours. Khaled Mansour, the brigadier general who remained (temporarily) alive, collected the fragments and started launching rockets towards Israel only four and a half hours later.

He didn't know yet that he was next in line.



The fact that Israel also managed to thwart him, when he was already in an emergency and experienced state, in the same surgical way, is simply unimaginable.

This fact did not go unnoticed by Yahya Sanwar nor by other eyes in Beirut and Tehran.

If this is not deterrence, there is no deterrence in the world.

Make no mistake: as much as deterrence, it is also bound to wear off.

Without a political settlement, we will continue to move from the dawn to the end of the soul in a constant cycle and changing rhythm, until the end of days.



The fact that a day or two after the end of the operation, Israel launched an equally targeted and much more difficult countermeasure in Nablus, adds to the deterrence in question.

This time it is a cell of territory where Israel has a foothold, but there are not many feet that are able to enter and leave it safely.

In the depths of the Kasbah of Nablus, Ibrahim al Nabulsi was killed, another wanted jihadist, the last remnant of a terrorist cell whose other members were killed.

Here too, rare intelligence arrived, but here it is impossible to activate the Air Force.

Warriors with "boots on the ground" are needed.

The IDF and the IDF, in a tough shootout, also accomplished this mission and returned home without casualties (except for Zili the dog).

Arrived at a perfect time.

Kochavi (photo: Flash 90, Olivier Fitosi)

This action came to Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi at a perfect time. He is already concluding his tenure, which was supposed to be something completely different. Kochavi took office with plans in the sky, literally. He strove to move the IDF into the futuristic dimension.

Adapt the army to the cybernetic, cyberist era, in which technology, robotics, sophistication and special measures dominate.

He planned to mix the units together and create innovative action punches.

The corona virus, along with the political upheaval, disrupted these plans beyond recognition.

Even "Guardian of the Walls" did not dim the bitter taste with which Kochavi was supposed to end his tenure.



The last operation changed all this fundamentally.

True, the Islamic Jihad is Israel's weakest adversary, but it is an experienced, jealous, dangerous adversary that has already caused much damage in the past.

"Dawn" is the first operation since Cast Lead (2009) from which the IDF and the Israeli public emerge with a clear sense of victory.

Lapid's decisions

For Yair Lapid this promotion came at even more perfect timing than for Kochavi.

He needed a matriculation test, a baptism of fire, a leap of faith, and he got it at the right time.

A person who accompanies quite a few prime ministers in security tests told me this week that Lapid fulfilled the role of prime minister perfectly in the last operation, according to the book.

He made three big decisions, and let the army work.

He provided backup, demonstrated peace of mind, did not oppress the military elite and did not waste time.



"With Netanyahu," says the source, "the army commanders would spend most of their time in security meetings, in the cabinets, in the endless consultations. They would arrive in Jerusalem for an hour, leave after nine hours, and on the way back to the front they would receive a last-minute change of plans because Bibi regretted it." .

I asked about Bennett.

"With Bennett, it's a different story," said the source, "Naftali descends to the smallest resolutions. For him, he is back to being Magellan's chief of staff. He did not lead a military operation of this type, but those who know him know that in this operation, Naftali would have wanted to take down the One of the positions of the jihad itself. To join the fighters in the field. He likes to know everything."



And a torch?

something completely different.

Short, purposeful, focused.

"The IDF came to this operation, which is not usual, six gods of battle," a source who was in the room told me this week, "unlike many times in the past, this time it was the "galloping horses", and not the "lazy oxen".

At the very beginning of the event, in one of the meetings, Chief of Staff Kochavi dropped a subtle hint: "Our job," he said, "is to conduct the war on the ground, not to talk about it in the home front." Lapid understood and immediately calmed down.



He conducted short, purposeful meetings, without exhausting the The army in innumerable discussions, deliberations, options, alternatives and various different digs. It was greatly assisted by Gantz, who knows the operating system of the system better than anyone else. In general, Gantz looks like a fish back in the water in this operation. In his most natural element. While Bennett, who went down the slope Back after his resignation, Lapid said to those who said there was no substitute for Bennett's ability to think outside the box.

Short, purposeful, focused.

Lapid (Photo: Government Press Office, Haim Tzach)

One way or another, the management of this operation was one of the most rhythmic and purposeful that the IDF veterans remember. and let them work.

He made the big decisions and let them make the small decisions."



He also managed to avoid politics. As long as the rockets were launched and the bombs were dropped, he was purely professional. So, for example, when the first jihadist rocket exploded in Jabaliya, killing children. It Happened in the middle of a cabinet meeting. The atmosphere was heavy. It was clear to those present that this could turn the tide. Chief of Staff Kochavi went out, went in, went out and came back, then announced that Israel had documentation proving that it was a malfunctioning Jihad rocket.



Lapid immediately asked: Can we take it out?

The head of the AMN confirmed. No objection was expressed in the room. Where is the head of the national information system? asked Lapid, let him handle it. He is already handling it, we informed him. Lapid looked at those present in the room, recognized the minister Hili Trooper and said: Hili, you can go out to give A message to the media? We need to kill this spin when it is small. It was. Troper, perhaps the most reliable politician in Israel at the moment, not a member of Lapid's party, but in an event like this there are no parties. His clear statement, together with the videos showing the rocket spiraling into Jabaliya, did the work.



Lapid's three biggest decisions in the operation were the most elementary and necessary: ​​to decide that he would not go on vacation (when tensions broke out), to decide that he would go on the attack, to decide to fold quickly after the objectives were achieved. That's how it should be. And one



more little thing: throughout the operation, Even before that, he consulted with Gadi Eisenkot. On the phone, but also in meetings. He keeps him.

The next act

What do Chief of Staff Kochavi, the head of the Shin Bet Bar, the head of the National Security Council Dr. Eyal Hulta, the military secretary of the Prime Minister, General Avi Gil, and the commander of the Gaza Division, Brigadier General Nimrod Aloni, have in common?

All five are graduates of the Wexner Foundation.

The same discredited and slandered foundation was a cross between the Az ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades and the Iranian Majles.

The foundation, which for some crazy reasons has become a popular target for the illusory bibist jihad, led by the exiled prince Yair Netanyahu (who is forced to apologize), has been training and improving Israel's security elite for years.



How good that in the current atmosphere it is possible to return to some kind of sanity and be grateful for these opportunities, instead of going against them on a quest to destroy.

Which leads us to the decision that should be made by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. It should be made by next Tuesday and those who know Eisenkot know that it will be made on time. At the moment, it is still impossible to know the direction: enter political life, or stay out?



His hesitation is real.

He wants to make an impact, he wants the opportunity to work hard, he wishes for a stable government, for the opportunity to make important moves, to restore the lost statehood and try to reconnect the fragments that were once Israeli society.



The chance that all these opportunities will be given to him and all this will happen, tends to zero.

There is no situation in our trump cards for a stable government of the center-left bloc.

The dream scenario of this bloc is to continue curbing Netanyahu and denying him the expected 61 mandates.

As long as the torch is a transitional prime minister, this is the minimum achievement required.

But that's probably not enough for Eisenkot.

He thinks big.

The confusion is real.

Eisenkot (Photo: Reuven Castro)

Well, dear Capricorn, you are missing something here.

Politics is not a program as you wish.

You do not have the privilege of drawing up a list of conditions and limitations that will create the special circumstances required to produce perfect laboratory conditions.

This is good in theory.

This is good in the IDF's multi-year plan. Because in real life, there are moments in the life of a nation that cannot be resisted. We are at a fateful point in time, at a dramatic watershed like no other, at the height of the last and decisive battle for the fate of Israeli democracy. And you are not Can, just can't afford to stay on the lines when a war like this is going on here.



If Netanyahu does succeed in bringing his 61 mandates, you will have to explain to yourself, forever, how you stood against it.

There won't be another chance.

It's now or never.

You have to take off the white gloves, put on second-hand clothes and work shoes, and jump into the swamp.

This is what your friend Gabi Ashkenazi did in the previous round.

He didn't bring people with him, he didn't sign agreements and he didn't get promises.

He just saw the bloody stretcher and shoved his strongest shoulder under it.

The move by Ashkenazi and Gantz to go to the rotation government with Netanyahu was the first step in curbing it.

The second stage was the establishment of the government of change.

The third, and decisive, stage awaits us on November 1.



In the pink dreams, Lt. Col. Gadi Eisenkot and Col. Matan Kahana unite ranks and now join the Zionist effort to protect this homeland from those who try to drag it into nationalist, undemocratic and dark abysses.

No maybes, no buts, no excuses and no constraints.

This point in time is no less decisive than Israel's historical wars.

This time, the fight is not against an external enemy, but within us.

The fight is over the image of Israel.

He is separated between brothers and the day after that the family has to be reunited.

These are the moments when a commander throws everything he has into the campaign, including the general reserve. You, Gadi, are that reserve.

The new Likud

This week there were primaries in Likud and Labor.

In both cases, generational changes took place.

At work they say goodbye to Nachman Shay and probably also to Amar Bar-Lev.

Likud separates from the liberal movement and the backbone and becomes a one-man party.

In both cases, there were no big surprises.



As far as Netanyahu is concerned, the primaries did not contain any unusual attacks, but neither did any big news.

The selected list "sits" very well on the Likud's current electorate.

It doesn't have hacking options for new audiences, but it also doesn't have unfolding disasters.

It has a resounding statement of tens of thousands of functionaries that the only determining factor, above any ideology, principle or any other consideration, is loyalty to the leader.

Sa Tu.

As far as Netanyahu is concerned, the only important question is whether all those who will be elected as part of the Likud for the next Knesset will be completely loyal to his every whim or any of the members of his nuclear family.

We will know the answer later.



The bad news for him is embodied in the fact that the list contains almost no women, while the country contains 51% of this species.

Let's say gently that the top of the list continues to be white, seven and privileged, contrary to the fictional theories that have been spread here recently.

The good news is that Orli Levy-Abacsis, one of the most fake figures to appear in Israeli politics in the current era, has probably ended her life with a whimper.

Like her, probably also Gedi Barkan.

Two deserters without shame, now also without electorate.

  • 2022 election

  • Columns

Tags

  • Operation Dawn

  • Yair Lapid

  • Aviv Kochavi

  • Gadi Eisenkot

Source: walla

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