Inflation: End of the price spiral in sight?
These reasons speak against it
Created: 08/13/2022, 06:43
By: Patricia Huber
Inflation has not risen in recent months.
Is there finally an end to inflation in sight?
Experts don't count on it.
Berlin/Munich – While the inflation rate rose almost steadily until May, a small decline has been observed since June.
According to provisional calculations by the Federal Statistical Office, inflation in July was 7.5 percent – and has therefore weakened slightly.
So does this finally mean the end of the price spiral?
Experts fear the opposite - because there are a number of reasons why deflation is not yet in sight.
Nine-euro ticket and fuel discount to dampen inflation
The nine-euro ticket and the fuel discount from the federal government's relief package also play a special role in this regard.
These two measures expire at the end of August.
Then more will have to be paid for petrol and diesel again and train travel will also be significantly more expensive for consumers.
These two measures have dampened inflation in Germany enormously – so the absence in September could lead to an increase of up to 1.5 percentage points again.
Up to two percentage points more: gas levy as an enormous inflation driver
In addition, the abolition of the EEG surcharge dampened the development of electricity prices and thus inflation.
In autumn, however, the gas levy will be an additional burden.
This is in addition to the gas prices, which have already risen.
According to reports from Wirtschaftswoche
, Commerzbank economists estimate that the regular gas price increase should push inflation up by 0.4 percentage points
.
Depending on the amount, the gas surcharge could add another 0.6 to 2 percentage points.
All in all, the inflation rate could be pushed up by 3.4 percent simply because of the loss of relief, the high gas prices and the gas levy.
Even experts do not assume that the situation will ease up again any time soon.
Grocery shopping is getting more and more expensive.
But is an end to inflation in sight anytime soon?
Experts don't think so.
© IMAGO/Frank Hoermann/SVEN SIMON
also read
Pension: These cohorts are allowed to retire before the age of 67
Habeck's "nightmare scenario" threatens: Gazprom speaks up - and considers the forecast "impossible"
Expert does not expect deflation
Price expert Stefan Benett told Die
Welt
that he "does not expect widespread deflation, i.e. a general drop in prices." This is mainly due to the fact that the demand for products is high, despite shortages, especially in the food trade.
According to Benett, retailers and manufacturers also have an interest in maintaining the prices that have been accepted.
(ph)