Russia expert explains Putin's plan in the Ukraine war: forcing Zelenskyy to surrender completely

Created: 08/14/2022, 04:47

By: Klaus Rimpel

A Russia expert explains President Vladimir Putin's plan for the Ukraine war.

© IMAGO/Mikhail Klimentyev

The situation in the Ukraine war is becoming increasingly opaque.

A Russia expert explains how Vladimir Putin intends to force Volodymyr Zelenskyy to capitulate.

Munich/Kyiv – At the beginning of the Ukraine war there were still vague hopes of a negotiated solution.

At the beginning of March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared his willingness to speak about the status of the separatist areas in the east of the country and the Crimean peninsula annexed by Russia.

Even then, Zelenskyy made it clear at the same time that he would not recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed "People's Republics" or Russian rule over Crimea.

After 167 days of war, after the Bucha massacre and the bombing of shopping centers and hospitals, the Ukrainian president now sounds much more uncompromising: "Crimea is Ukrainian and we will never give it up," Zelenskyy said in his daily video address after it was first announced explosions had occurred on the Black Sea Peninsula since the outbreak of war.

"This Russian war against Ukraine, against all free Europe, started with Crimea and must end with Crimea, with its liberation."

Ukraine war: Putin now apparently has a "clear plan" - full control over Donetsk and Luhansk

So Kyiv is counting on being able to win the war thanks to Western arms deliveries and driving out the Russian occupiers.

But Vladimir Putin is also still convinced that he can win this war - despite the initial military setbacks, such as the withdrawal from the Kyiv region.

"In contrast to the chaotic first months, Putin also now has a clear plan," explains Russia expert Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Moscow Center in an analysis for the

.

The political scientist assumes that Putin has given up his goal of conquering all of Ukraine, but instead wants to secure full control of Donetsk and Luhansk and a land corridor to Crimea.

“Despite all claims to the contrary, the prevailing view in the West is that Ukraine cannot win back the territories occupied by Russian troops anyway.

And the Kremlin seems to believe that sooner or later its opponents will completely abandon this idea.”

Russia expert analyzes Ukraine war: Putin plans total capitulation of Zelenskyy

But the much more crucial war goal for Putin is to force Zelenskyy to surrender completely: the government would have to resign and be replaced by a pro-Moscow one.

Kyiv should end cooperation with the West, guarantee the Russian-speaking population a dominant position, and criminalize Ukrainian national heroes.

“The Kremlin expects that in a year or two Ukraine will be exhausted from war, dysfunctional and massively demoralized.

Then the conditions for a capitulation would be met,” said Stanovaya.

Putin assumes that an opposition will then form that will overthrow Zelenskyy.

But Putin is also relying on the time factor in relation to NATO: High inflation and rising energy prices would lead to the citizens of the West rebelling against the traditional political elites.

The Kremlin ruler believes voters will bring to power pro-Russian populists like Marine Le Pen in France or Donald Trump in the US.

"Putin seems to be speculating that fundamental political changes in Western countries will produce a transformed, pro-Russian West," Stanovaya said.

Then Russia could push through the ultimatum it made to the US and NATO in December: withdrawal of all nuclear weapons and missiles from Europe that could reach Russia, withdrawal of all foreign troops from East-Central Europe, no new NATO members.

"This may seem like almost impossible wishful thinking," said the Putin expert.

"But that doesn't mean that Putin doesn't think that way."