Political scientist Agnieszka Legucka analyzes Russia's security policy from Poland.
In an interview, she explains the "collective Putin" and what consequences this has for his people.
Warsaw – “Ukrainians will fight to the end.
They won't give up.” When, immediately after the start of the Ukraine war, many experts believed in a rapid Russian conquest of Ukraine, Agnieszka Legucka proved to be a unerring expert.
In the days before the war began, the Polish professor of politics visited the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and, in an interview with
Merkur.de from IPPEN.MEDIA
, also reported that there was a “calm before the storm” there.
Almost six months later, in a new interview, she speaks about the escalating Ukraine conflict, about the Putin system and what a Russian loss of territory would result in.
Ms Legucka, you use the term “collective Putin” when you talk about the regime in Russia.
What does that mean?
This is a term that appears in public discourse and describes a system created by Vladimir Putin.
This system includes people loyal to the Russian President.
It is a system of dependency between Putin and his peers who rely on his power.
These people also advise Putin on important political decisions.
Putin knows some of them from his time in St. Petersburg.
Many of them belong to the Security Council of the Russian Federation.
So Vladimir Putin takes great care to ensure that those around him are absolutely loyal to him and do not endanger his position?
Exactly, there must not be a person among them who could claim to take the lead.
That is precisely the question of all questions.
Who comes after Putin?
The biggest dilemma of the system is the year 2024 and the successor to Putin.
This invasion of Ukraine has a lot to do with how the system Putin wants to consolidate and survive.
Everything is aimed at Putin.
Should Putin die or become ill, everything will falter.
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Political scientist and Russia expert Agnieszka Legucka.
©PISM
To person
Political professor Agnieszka Legucka has been analyzing Russia and its security policy for the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) for years.
The think tank is one of the most important research institutions in Europe, especially in terms of Russia expertise.
Legucka's research focus includes both Russia and the entire Ostpolitik and its impact on the policies of the European Union, Ukraine and the countries of the southern Caucasus.
Russia's Ukraine war: "One of the biggest enemies of Putin's system is Russian society"
And what about ordinary people in Russia?
Are they also part of the “collective Putin”?
Yes, paradoxically, they are part of this term, because they are the greatest threat to the system.
Putin fears ordinary people the most.
This is also confirmed by Russian sociologists.
The Russians are a politically very passive society that has been oppressed and terrorized for years.
This system is a vertical system that does not allow horizontal activities.
Any kind of social activity is directly controlled by the state.
And if there are attempts to set up any kind of social activity, which again is not controlled by the state, then it will be opposed.
So the state is trying to put out feelers everywhere.
It's about immediately absorbing and controlling moods among the people.
They are crucial to this “collective Putin”.
Where does it come from?
Moods in Russia are still based on fears and hopes from the 19th century.
It's a mixture of two emotions.
It's all about geographical space.
The territory that Russia has.
It is the feeling of pride in owning a very large territory and this pride in a certain superiority over other nations.
On the other hand there is the fear that this space is uncontrollable and that there is nowhere to secure these long borders.
Therefore, this threat can also come from different directions.
And so there is this constant sense of menace, this constant sense of a fortress under siege, of the West's constant expansion.
And now we have this Russian-perceived American threat.
Consequently, this mixture of emotions,
What does that mean for the population?
The Russian government knows how to play this game.
This is exploited by Russian propaganda.
The individual Russian citizen has no chance against the state as an institution.
At the same time, the war in Ukraine is supposed to frighten Russian citizens.
The war is intended to underline the absolute harshness of the state.
Russia's Ukraine War: "The Frankenstein Imperialism of the Soviet Union and the Tsarist Era is Back"
How would the system react if Russia can only hold the Donbas Basin in Ukraine?
It would be doable for the system, because any increase in the territory of the Russian state will be defined as a victory.
The condition of securing the territory is thus more or less fulfilled and the fears are calmed for the time being.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi has long promised his citizens that Crimea will be retaken.
What would such a defeat mean for Russia?
Every smallest loss of territory is felt as a humiliation.
The very word "humiliation" is appropriate here.
This geopolitical mindset is the real disaster.
You have created a Frankenstein that keeps coming up.
You are trapped in this mindset.
Russia realizes its sovereignty through territorial gains and declares that it has more rights to this or that territory than other states.
There is therefore a relativism of principles, a relativism of international law.
The argument then is that Russia is a superpower.
Point.
Is Russia going in circles?
Yes, the Frankenstein imperialism of the Soviet Union and the Tsarist era is back.
That's why the Soviet Union is of great importance in general, because the Russians are trying to recreate that symbolism in a way.
We are dealing with a very strange Frankenstein of imperialism in general.
Russia's history becomes modeling clay from which Putin can tinker with imperialist attributes as needed.
He manipulates and completely twists the facts.
History is needed for propaganda to keep reviving imperialism.
"The key to Russia's future lies in the course of the war in Ukraine"
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Putin has recently seen himself as Peter the Great.
He adapts everything to his needs.
Even the figure of Peter the Great becomes a selective and manipulated message.
In reality, there is no sign that Russians see Putin as an infallible leader.
You just got tired.
Rather, they see this Russian world as it was then, there is the good tsar and over there the bad boyars (Editor's note: nobles below the rank of prince or tsar).
So they struggle through this corrupt system day after day.
Do the Russians even want to change this system, after all they have been getting into it for centuries?
Maybe they can.
I dont know.
There are signs that Putin is succeeding in mobilizing the Russians for this war for the time being.
In my view, the basic quality that Russians have developed in this conflict between the individual and the state is to adapt to the situation.
In this eternal struggle between the individual and the state they find themselves in, it is simply a question of survival.
You have adjusted to it.
They think that this situation will eventually pass and somehow they will manage to survive.
And whether there will be that moment depends a lot on what is happening in Ukraine and on the Ukrainian front.
So a lot also depends on how we as the West help Ukraine.
