By Denise Chow and Nigel Chiwaya —
NBC News
An extreme heat
belt
is forming that reaches north of Chicago, a corridor that crosses the center of the country and will affect more than 107 million people in the next 30 years, according to new data on the risk of the climate emergency. .
The report, released Monday by the nonprofit research group First Street Foundation, indicates that in an area of the central United States, stretching from Texas and Louisiana north to the Great Lakes, residents could experience temperatures of heat index
above 125º F in 2053,
conditions that are more common in California's Death Valley or in parts of the Middle East.
Dangerous hot days
Days with heat index temperatures above 125 degrees are projected to increase in the central US. Graphic: Nigel Chiwaya/NBC News
The projections are part of the First Street Foundation's new extreme heat model that shows
the number of days with heat index temperatures above 100ºF will increase over most of the country over the next 30 years
as a result of climate change.
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The heat index represents what the human body feels when humidity and air temperature are combined.
This is what is commonly known as wind chill.
"Everyone is affected by rising heat, whether it's absolute increases in dangerous days or just a local hot day," said First Street Foundation head of research Jeremy Porter. Director of Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences at the City University of New York.
It's already been a sweltering summer for much of the United States and Europe.
The latest monthly weather report from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, released Aug. 8, revealed that last month was the nation's third-hottest month since records began nearly 130 years ago.
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As humans continue to emit heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,
temperatures around the world are rising,
increasing both the frequency of extreme heat events and their severity.
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First Street researchers used their model to create an online tool called Risk Factor to give people local snapshots of how their own home will be affected by extreme temperatures and what might change in the future. next three decades.
The organization had already created similar resources to assess the risks of wildfires and floods in specific directions.
The new model uses high-resolution measurements of land surface temperatures and incorporates the effects of vegetation cover, proximity to water, and other factors that determine local temperature variability.
It then calculates future thermal risk using different forecast scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades.
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The researchers looked at the seven hottest days predicted for any location this year and calculated what their equivalent might be 30 years from now.
Across the country, they found that, on average,
the seven hottest days in a community will become the 18 hottest days in that place by 2053.
The most pronounced change was in Miami-Dade County, according to Porter, where the area's hottest seven days, with heat index temperatures of 103 degrees, are forecast to increase to 34 days with that temperature within 30 years.
More heat in more places
Predicted number of days with heat index temperatures above 100 degrees, by county.
Graphic: Nigel Chiwaya/NBC News
But in addition to the widespread increase in heat exposure, the First Street model also identified what Porter and colleagues call an "extreme heat belt" that covers about a quarter of the country's land area.
About 8.1 million residents in 50 counties are at risk of experiencing heat index temperatures above 125 degrees.
But by 2053, the projection expands to more than 1,000 counties in an area that is home to more than 107 million people, according to First Street's model.
The geographic limits of the area and its sheer size were surprising, Porter said.
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"I think a lot of people are surprised that southern Wisconsin and Chicago are part of the extreme heat belt," he added.
The agricultural impact of such a wide heat belt in the heart of the country is especially concerning, said Noboru Nakamura, a professor of geophysical sciences at the University of Chicago, who was not involved in the First Street research.
“If there are hot spots and dry spells in these places, farmers will have to change their priorities and the types of crops they will plant, and all of that will have many long-term consequences,” Nakamura said.
A skater walks through a park at sunset, Wednesday, June 8, 2022, in San Antonio, Texas. Eric Gay / AP
In addition, exposure to heat poses huge public health and safety concerns, he added.
According to the National Weather Service, heat causes more deaths each year across the country than any other weather phenomenon.
According to Nakamura, extreme heat surges are likely to affect people's lives and livelihoods in certain places, and could even influence where people choose to live.
"If a certain fraction of days a year exceeds 100 degrees, unless you have the resources and infrastructure to stay cool, it's going to be very difficult to survive in certain places," Nakamura said.
"I certainly can see that changing people's decisions about where to live."
