Cédric Mas is a military historian and specialist in armed conflicts. It closely follows the conflict in Ukraine by regularly publishing a specific update on the military situation.
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LE FIGARO.- What exactly do we know about the attacks in Crimea?
Cedric Mas. -
Ukraine has not given any explanation or claim, unlike the attack on the Moskva for example.
More generally, the Ukrainian army does not communicate when it comes to Crimea and remains very discreet so as not to give bad arguments to Russia, which considers Crimea as part of its territory.
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Concretely, it could be missiles, very long-range guided rockets, or “
acts of sabotage
” as Russia denounces it, by resistance groups or by special operations.
Volodymyr Zelensky
(Ukrainian President, editor
's note) himself mentioned several hypotheses without deciding.
If these are indeed bombings, they are strikes at a range of more than 200km, with therefore necessarily weapons delivered by the West, whether for the explosions of the Saki base or the electrical depots and transformers.
It could also be, with less probability however, an improved prototype missile from the Soviet army with which Ukraine sank the Moskva.
Can Crimea reasonably constitute an objective of reconquest for Ukraine?
Crimea is a strategic peninsula that juts deep to the south and the Black Sea to face Turkey and the eastern side of the Balkans.
There is the large naval base of Sevastopol and several air bases.
The peninsula was annexed in 2014 by Russia after a coup in the form of a politico-military operation and the Ukrainians still consider it an integral part of their territory (moreover, the international community does not recognize annexation).
Ukraine is not only fighting against the February 24 invasion but also against the aggressions it has experienced since 2014. Unlike Russia, the objective of the government in kyiv has not changed since the beginning of the war .
And the recapture of Crimea is part of the main war objective, which is to restore integrity and sovereignty over the whole of Ukrainian territory.
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However, the current strikes are not necessarily intended to prepare for a reconquest of Crimea but simply to score points, politically and militarily, to show that the Ukrainian army continues to be active.
Politically, by hitting a territory that the Russians consider their country.
Many Russians have also settled there.
Militarily, striking the rear base of the entire southern invasion of the country – which is the most successful Russian operation of the war.
Kherson was reached after 24 hours and taken after three days.
The crossings over the Dnieper, the capture of the Zaporizhia power station and the encirclement of Mariupol were carried out from the Crimea.
To strike the Crimea is to oblige the Russians to protect themselves by redeploying forces which will not be on the front.
The logic is also the same on the Russian side with the posturing around a possible invasion of Belarus, which obliges the Ukrainians to mobilize a certain number of units and defense in the north.
Both sides seek to distract.
Is Russia really threatened in Crimea?
There is also a desire to strike depots and airbases to inflict casualties and force restocking.
Yesterday's explosions lasted part of the day on a huge deposit of several hectares.
This is a blow for Russia.
But the most problematic destruction for Russia is more the railways and the lines of communication, essential for the logistics of the army.
Crimea is connected by two railways to occupied Ukraine.
The first in Melitopol joins the southern front, and the second joins Kherson.
They were both sabotaged.
There is also the gigantic bridge that connects Crimea to Russia, over the Sea of Azov, which is one of the symbols of the annexation.
If it has not yet been hit, it is clearly threatened today and the Russians are very worried.
But if there is an attempt at Ukrainian asphyxiation, it will not have an immediate effect, it is done gradually.
Above all, Ukraine has other priorities.
She has a full army to rebuild at the moment.
It lacks a lot of equipment and training, two points on which it focuses with the help of Westerners.
These attacks are more a result of a desire to maintain constant pressure on the different fronts, according to the Soviet art of maneuver warfare – which permeates the training of Ukrainian and Soviet officers who come from the same schools.
This art of war, conceived in the 1930s in Stalin's military schools, provides for successive thrusts on all fronts.
