A few days ago, the General Administration of Customs of China released the foreign trade import and export data for July.
In dollar terms, exports rose 18% y/y in July, beating expectations for 16.2% y/y and 17.9% y/y; imports rose 2.3% y/y, lower than expected 4.5% y/y, but higher than 1% y/y.
The trade surplus exceeded one trillion yuan, reaching a record high of 101.26 billion yuan.
China's exports have accelerated for three consecutive months.
On a monthly basis, July increased by 0.5% from the very high base of the previous month.
The monthly export value of 332.9 billion US dollars has approached the highest level on record in December last year.
Be aware that exports are higher in December each year than other months due to seasonality and settlement factors.
Why is the export value so high in July?
First, in July, the value of China's exports to ASEAN increased by 33.5% year-on-year.
The dividends of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the "ballast stone" role of ASEAN cooperation continue to be released.
In the first seven months, China’s imports and exports to ASEAN amounted to RMB 3.53 trillion, and ASEAN was firmly ranked as China’s largest trading partner, accounting for 15% of China’s total foreign trade value, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%; imports and exports with RCEP member countries increased year-on-year 7.5%.
In July, China's imports and exports to RCEP trading partners reached 1.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year, driving the overall import and export growth by 5.6 percentage points.
ASEAN is China's largest trading partner.
(Xinhua News Agency)
At the same time, the export data of countries related to the “Belt and Road Initiative” are also dazzling.
China's imports and exports to countries along the Belt and Road totaled 7.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.8%, and the growth rates of imports and exports were both 19.8%.
In addition, China's exports to the Netherlands, Italy, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Australia, India, and Brazil were particularly outstanding. In RMB terms, the annual growth rates of exports from January to July were 25.3%, 37.4%, 31.8%, and 31.8%, respectively. %, 26%, 24.2%, 37% and 28.9%.
In addition, judging from the results of China's consumer goods exports, structural bright spots are also obvious.
From January to July, the export value of China's mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products increased the most.
In the first seven months, China exported 7.57 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 10.1%, accounting for 56.6% of the total export value.
The growth in auto exports was particularly pronounced.
As the market competitiveness of branded automobiles including new energy vehicles continues to increase, China's exports of automobiles (including chassis) and auto parts continue to grow rapidly.
The export performance of photovoltaic modules is also relatively bright, providing important support for the high export boom.
From January to June, the total export value of photovoltaic products was about 25.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 113% year-on-year.
At the same time, exports of labor-intensive products are equally good.
In July, the export of luggage and shoes recorded a year-on-year growth rate of over 35%, and the export of toys reached a year-on-year growth rate of 28%; the growth rate of clothing, textile raw materials and products increased by over 15% year-on-year.
From January to July, the export of labor-intensive products was 2.41 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.2%, accounting for 18%.
Among them, clothing and clothing accessories were 647.54 billion yuan, an increase of 13.5%; textiles were 581.45 billion yuan, an increase of 11.9%; and plastic products were 402.1 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3%.
Since the second quarter of this year, the US dollar exchange rate has risen and the RMB exchange rate has depreciated, which has also played a supporting role in exports.
(Getty Images)
Goldman Sachs analysis pointed out that last month's export figures recorded strong growth, mainly from exports to the EU, Russia and ASEAN, as well as the low base effect caused by the impact of the typhoon in July last year...
For details, please read the 330th issue of "Hong Kong 01" Electronic Weekly Newsletter (August 15, 2022) "
Is China's Trade Surplus Breaking One Trillion a Bliss or a Worry?
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