Recently, the interaction between China and small South Asian countries has frequently become a topic of news. In addition to the news that China will go to Nepal to survey the railway on August 11, the Chinese military survey ship "Yuan Wang 5" (Yuan Wang 5) docked in Sri Lanka on August 16. The matter also sparked a lot of discussion.
The controversy surrounding this incident will return to the Indian media reports in early August.
On August 6, Indian media quoted sources as saying that Sri Lanka had originally approved China's "Yuanwang 5" to visit the Hambantota port on August 11 on July 12, but India strongly opposed it. , Sri Lanka asked Yuanwang-5 to postpone its visit indefinitely.
India also alleged that the "Yuanwang-5" was a dual-purpose spy ship that could monitor space and satellites and launch intercontinental ballistic missiles. Bentota Port is a port built and operated by the Chinese side, and the "Yuanwang 5" trip is seeking "refueling and supplies".
However, things changed a week later.
On August 13, Nirmal P Silva, the Sri Lankan port chief, said that the Sri Lankan Ministry of Foreign Affairs has given permission to allow the "Yuanwang 5" to stop at Hambantota port from August 16 to 22. Sri Lanka will China and Sri Lanka have also reached a consensus to ensure the logistics service of the "Yuanwang-5" in the port. The "Yuanwang-5" will continue to turn on the identification system during its berthing at the Hambantota Port, and will not conduct any research activities in Sri Lankan waters.
On August 16, "Yuanwang 5" successfully sailed to Hambantota Port.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin also said on the same day that the "Yuanwang 5" scientific research ship has successfully berthed and it will take some time to complete the replenishment.
China and Sri Lanka maintain cooperation in the field of scientific research. China is willing to promote the healthy and stable development of bilateral relations. "Yuanwang 5" conforms to international law and prevailing international practice, does not affect the security and economic interests of any country, and should not be interfered by a third party.
This incident not only reflects India's concerns about deepening exchanges between South Asian countries and China, but also outlines the trend that Sri Lanka, as a small South Asian country, will continue to adopt a hedging strategy between China and India.
View of Hambantota port in southern Sri Lanka on November 15, 2018.
(Getty)
Hedging logic in Sri Lanka
As far as the geographical location of Sri Lanka is concerned, it is similar to small South Asian countries such as Nepal. It is located in the geographical pattern of India's dominance. It is necessary to guard against threats and interference from India, and to rely on the economic and trade dividends of its exchanges. A delicate policy balance is maintained between national development.
Looking back at the history of Sri Lanka’s interaction with India, Sri Lanka became independent from Britain in 1948 and was named Ceylon. At that time, Ceylon lacked a modern land, naval and air force and had almost no defense capabilities. The sphere of influence has aroused strong dissatisfaction between the two countries.
Sri Lanka was officially established in 1972, but a bloody civil war broke out 11 years later. In the chaos, India strongly intervened in Sri Lanka's ethnic issues: although the central government has secretly assisted Sri Lanka's armed organization "Liberation Tigers" for a long time in the past of Tamil Eelam), but worried that the success of its independence would induce the Tamils in southern India to respond, so they chose to support the Sri Lankan government forces; Tamil Nadu in southern India chose to support the Sri Lankan government out of blood. Tamil Independence Forces Supporting Sri Lanka.
Therefore, in the bloody civil war that lasted for 20 years, different political forces in India successively adopted different methods to support the warring parties at the same time, which invisibly led to the slapstick of the conflict, and also brought Sri Lanka's disgust towards India to a climax. , began to seek military support including the United States, Britain, China and Pakistan.
However, after the end of the civil war, relations between Sri Lanka and India have improved, and the key is the introduction of the "Gujral Doctrine" in the 1990s.
Under this banner, India began to repair its relations with neighboring countries, hoping to enrich its background as a major country with a large amount of unilateral assistance, and at the same time prevent small South Asian countries from falling to China due to their own "excessive oppression"; The need for a lot of money to drive reconstruction works is a perfect match for India.
Before that, Sri Lanka's perception of India as a threat was overwhelming, but after the civil war, it gradually corrected its foreign strategy, lowered its hostile relationship with India, and used India's assistance to rebuild the country; but at the same time, Sri Lanka did not Abandoning the ties of cooperation with China has simultaneously strengthened Sino-Sri Lanka economic and trade relations, because China can not only provide economic assistance, but also deepen India's geographical anxiety, which will help Sri Lanka bilaterally ask for prices in the long run.
China and Sri Lanka signed the Hambantota port concession agreement in July 2017.
(VCG)
Therefore, observing the construction of Sri Lanka in the past ten years, we can find that both China and India have played an important role.
India has participated in Sri Lanka's post-war reconstruction through investment and assistance, and has cooperated with Sri Lanka in railways, ports, airports, residential projects and energy, and signed free trade agreements and Colombo Port Transshipment Agreements. "Initiatives and other projects have greatly increased the bilateral trade volume between China and Sri Lanka and the amount of investment in Sri Lanka. In addition to the Hambantota port, the international airport project, power plant, and Colombo Port City project have also been gradually launched.
Unlike Nepal, in the security field, Sri Lanka is less likely to choose to strengthen military cooperation with China in order to check and balance the threat of India, and once faced with doubts from India, Sri Lanka mostly adopts the principle of "India first".
As mentioned above, for Sri Lanka, the Sino-Indian game structure has given itself economic space for bilateral asking prices. Properly balanced diplomacy can maximize national interests. Excessive involvement in the game of great powers may threaten its national security and even subvert its independence structure. Therefore, it has avoided angering India on military issues for many years.
In 2014, Sri Lanka twice approved Chinese submarines to dock at Colombo Port, which aroused strong dissatisfaction from India. After that, Sri Lanka no longer approved Chinese submarines to dock. Even at Hambantota Port, which was built and operated by China, Sri Lanka has also On the grounds of opposition from India and domestic political forces, it is emphasized that this port is only for civil purposes, and Chinese submarines are refused to come to berth.
On this basis, the key to the successful docking of the "Yuanwang-5" this time is that its military color is relatively light, and it is not as indicative as a submarine.
Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar posted a photo on March 17 with the caption: "Neighbors first. India stands with Sri Lanka.".
(Twitter @DrSJaishankar)
Balance trend unchanged but anxiety rising
Today, Sri Lanka is facing a new international situation, and a financial crisis broke out after the epidemic.
To a certain extent, the above-mentioned changes have squeezed the room for manoeuvre in balancing policies and created many uncertainties in the decision-making process.
First of all, the United States has gradually increased its investment in the Indo-Pacific region in recent years. It not only relies on India to help integrate South Asia and prevent "Chinese penetration", but also participates in the field.
Since 2016, the United States has continuously strengthened its security cooperation with Sri Lanka. Its fleet has visited frequently, and has held several joint military exercises with South Asian countries including Sri Lanka. A maritime security cooperation mechanism has been established, and a tripartite maritime security cooperation secretariat has been established to strengthen the intelligence sharing mechanism.
To a certain extent, this trend has increased the pressure on Sri Lanka to choose sides.
Second, an extremely serious economic crisis broke out in Sri Lanka in 2022, causing widespread social problems and political turmoil, and the ruling coalition was also divided. Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned on May 9, and President Rajapaksa resigned. (Gotabhaya Rajapaksa) also resigned and fled on July 13, and the Rajapaksa family's power was crumbling.
During this period, Ranil Wickremesinghe, the leader of the United National Party and a six-time prime minister, first took over as prime minister, and then served as president after Rajapaksa fled. MPs voted to be the new president of Sri Lanka.
However, the political situation in Sri Lanka is still in an unstable state, and it will take time for the society and people's livelihood to return to stability.
On July 10, in Colombo, Sri Lanka, people played in the conference room of the presidential residence to simulate a cabinet meeting.
(AP)
The economic crisis has intensified the pro-India and pro-China game within Sri Lanka.
First, the root cause of this bankruptcy storm is that Sri Lanka's own economic structure is fragile, and the international trade flow is blocked due to the impact of the epidemic, which has caused inflation and foreign exchange shortages.
However, because Sri Lanka has repeatedly requested China for debt restructuring, the United States and India have vigorously promoted the "Belt and Road sugar-coated poison" and "the debt trap will bring down Sri Lanka". This operation has dampened the political voice of the pro-China faction in Sri Lanka quantity.
Second, the ruling coalition in Sri Lanka is still unstable. Pro-India factions such as the Tamil National Alliance advocate that they should draw close to India for assistance to alleviate the country's economic crisis, but the centrists still advocate the importance of maintaining balanced diplomacy and hedging strategies, and believe that Taking advantage of the competition between China and India, we can obtain the highest amount of aid for Sri Lanka.
The game between the two sides may cause Sri Lanka's foreign policy to be less stable than in the past, and there will be relatively huge swings. For example, after apparently showing goodwill to China, India is dissatisfied, and it has to be corrected again.
The "Yuanwang 5" docking at Hambantota Port this time coincides with the time and space background of Sri Lanka's increasing pressure on external side selection and the continuous fermentation of internal political and economic anxiety, so it will induce a relatively strong regional game melody.
However, as far as the current strategic situation is concerned, Sri Lanka's balanced diplomacy towards China and India has generally remained unchanged, that is, the main axis of its hedging strategy is still to seek the maximization of its own economic and security interests under the situation of competition and mutual checks and balances between major powers. But now it has been involved in the wave of great power competition, coupled with the severe domestic economic crisis and political turmoil, its hedging strategy will inevitably be infected with more asking price and check and balance anxiety.
【Sri Lanka Q&A】
Why did Sri Lanka ease relations with India after the end of the civil war?
Under the "Gujral Doctrine", India has vigorously aided its South Asian neighbors, including Sri Lanka.
Why is Sri Lanka's China policy likely to fluctuate?
The United States and India intensified their mobilization in South Asia, and a serious economic crisis broke out in Sri Lanka, triggering a political storm.
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