Statisticians make a frightening corona forecast: the incidence is probably around 2000
Created: 08/18/2022, 16:31
By: Nils Tillmann
Mathematician Christian Hesse warns that there could be significantly more corona cases than most statistics show.
This is due to an “increasing number of unreported cases”.
Kassel – While the end of the summer wave is already being welcomed in many places, statistician Christian Hesse warns that the situation surrounding the corona virus may be much more serious than the current figures suggest.
The figures from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) were "made almost useless by an ever-increasing number of unreported cases," said Hesse
Focus Online
in an interview.
In the weekly report of August 11, the RKI recently recorded a 27 percent decrease in the 7-day incidence.
The report had forecast that "the current wave peak appears to have been passed".
Higher corona incidence due to "unreported figures"
However, Hesse, who heads the Department of Mathematical Statistics at the University of Stuttgart, disagrees and suggests that the peak of the summer wave could be yet to come.
The incidence figures of the RKI are based on the results of PCR tests that are carried out in clinics and test centers and reported to the institute.
Cases that are not recorded in such centers would contribute to an increasing number of unreported cases.
In fact, Hesse fears that the true corona incidence value could be around 2000.
On August 18, the RKI for Germany reported a 7-day incidence of 314.2.
The incidence values of the RKI are based on PCR test results from test centers and clinics.
Some cases could not end up in the statistics.
(Iconic image) © Dasarath Deka/IMAGO
Hesse cites the declining number of PCR tests carried out as one reason for his assessment.
This has decreased by a third compared to the value three weeks ago.
The fact that some parts of the population are less worried about a corona infection also contributes to the number of unreported cases, explains Hesse.
Younger and middle-aged people would therefore possibly not be tested.
Warning of the Corona autumn wave
Another factor could be the current holiday season.
Cases that are found among holidaymakers abroad are not listed in the RKI statistics.
And with the upcoming end of the summer holidays, according to Hesse, there could be a renewed increase in corona infections in Germany.
Germany-wide 7-day incidence in recent years | |
|---|---|
August 18, 2020 | 10.1 |
August 18, 2021 | 44.5 |
August 18, 2022 | 314.2 |
(Source: RKI) |
Hesse also foresees a high infection load for autumn.
The autumn and winter numbers of countries in the southern hemisphere, such as Australia, would reflect what awaits us in a few months.
Corona measures for the fall are therefore important.
In order to counteract a strong autumn wave, significantly more vaccine doses would have to be administered, says Hesse.
A flu vaccination can also help to protect risk groups.
(Nils Tilmann)
